[AMV] Amerikaanse politiek #506 Splitted GOP - Ineffectual Dems

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 19:55 schreef ExtraWaskracht het volgende:

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Nog een andere zaak wat een interessant gevecht op gaat leveren binnen de GOP... althans, volgens deze BuzzFeed News reporter:

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pdmcleod twitterde op dinsdag 22-05-2018 om 19:30:56 Having spent the last few days talking to a lot of Republicans about the discharge petition (which would force a series of immigration votes) my expert analysis is: Paul Ryan is kinda screwed, but Kevin McCarthy is really screwed. reageer retweet

The conservative Freedom Caucus has made it clear they will blame leadership if the discharge petition succeeds. As to how they retaliate, Jim Jordan says everything is on the table.

Meanwhile moderates say if leadership sabotages the discharge petition there will be outrage and it would completely destroy the deal-making process with them. There’s no middle ground here, leadership can only make one side happy.

Which sucks for Paul Ryan but he’s been here a million times. My guess is he burns the Freedom Caucus and the moderates get their immigration votes. But Kevin McCarthy, who wants to take the Speaker job from Ryan, needs the Freedom Caucus to support him.

McCarthy has come out against the discharge petition, just like Paul Ryan. This puts him at odds with his fellow California Republicans pushing hard for an immigration debate. And the Freedom Caucus may very well end up holding this against him in the end anyway.

Personally I don’t buy the Paul Ryan coup rumors, I think finishes his term. But good luck to McCarthy finding a way to thread the needle so that half his party isn’t livid at him when voting for the next leader comes around.

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What Happens If Republicans Keep Control Of The House And Senate?

Imagine this scenario: In November’s elections for the U.S. House, Democrats win the national House vote by a few percentage points and gain nearly 20 additional House seats,1 by both winning open seats and defeating some longtime GOP incumbents. In the Senate, Democrats pick up Nevada; win races in states President Trump carried in 2016, including in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia; and only narrowly lose in the GOP strongholds of Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee.

That sounds like a pretty good night for Democrats. But it wouldn’t be. That scenario would leave Republicans with a majority of, say, 222-213 in the House and a 51-49 advantage in the Senate.

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Renewed GOP attempts to shrink government

If Republicans control the House and Senate next year, I would expect them to push some kind of health policy proposal that uses the so-called reconciliation process, which requires only a majority of votes in the Senate, rather than a filibuster-proof 60. That legislation could be a full-scale repeal of Obamacare. Or it could be a bill that doesn’t repeal all of Obamacare but both cuts spending on Medicaid and turns Medicaid into a block-grant program where states can choose to spend the dollars they get from the federal government as they see fit. Overhauling Medicaid was a key plank of the various Obamacare repeal bills Republicans pushed in 2017.

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Weakening of the investigations against Trump

If Democrats don’t control the House or the Senate, they can’t initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.

More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation (assuming it’s still going) — at least for a while.

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A Democratic freakout

Nancy Pelosi already had Democratic critics who felt she had stayed on too long as the party’s House leader, blocked a younger generation of lawmakers from taking power and failed to lead Democrats back to majority power. But that situation has gotten worse in the first few months of 2018. Republicans are running millions of dollars in ads linking Democratic congressional candidates to the unpopular Pelosi, leaving some of these Democratic hopefuls feeling compelled to distance themselves from the California Democrat and say they do not want her to remain the party’s leader. If Republicans win the House this fall, I expect Democrats on the Hill will force Pelosi out as leader after pinning at least some of the blame for their defeat on her (or just deciding that they need someone new).

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A media reassessment

The initial media reaction to the 2016 election (“Should we cover Middle America more often?”) has largely been supplanted, I would argue, by news organizations investing more time and resources in covering the Trump administration, particularly the Russia investigation. That’s a logical decision. There is a lot of news in Washington — and that news is probably both more important and more likely to attract clicks and eyeballs (media is a business) than what’s happening in, say, small-town Wisconsin.

(...)

https://fivethirtyeight.c(...)tter_impression=true

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 23:04 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:
Avenatti & Trump hebben iets gemeen: ze zijn allebei failliet gegaan.

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 13:33 schreef Puddington het volgende:
Het is van de Daily Beast, dus hecht er zoveel waarde aan als je wilt

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realDonaldTrump twitterde op woensdag 23-05-2018 om 03:13:46 If the person placed very early into my campaign wasn’t a SPY put there by the previous Administration for political purposes, how come such a seemingly massive amount of money was paid for services rendered - many times higher than normal... reageer retweet

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realDonaldTrump twitterde op woensdag 23-05-2018 om 03:13:46 ...Follow the money! The spy was there early in the campaign and yet never reported Collusion with Russia, because there was no Collusion. He was only there to spy for political reasons and to help Crooked Hillary win - just like they did to Bernie Sanders, who got duped! reageer retweet

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 20:10 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:
BREAKING: Trump says Singapore summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un `may not work out for June 12,' suggests potential delay.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/998966107682885633?s=19

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 05:27 schreef Ulx het volgende:

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En de Nobelprijs dan?

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 22:29 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:
Interessant artikel over 4 mogelijke scenario's als de Republikeinen zowel het Huis als de Senaat weten te behouden in 2018, een scenario dat met het oog op veel peilingen steeds waarschijnlijker lijkt te worden:

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 07:53 schreef RM-rf het volgende:

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Literatuur is nog te vergeven: Best Work of Fiction

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 05:28 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
Dit vond ik wel een mooie

In 2018 en 1901. Let de op de leeftijd van de groepen.

[ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 22 mei 2018 08:26 schreef Ulx het volgende:
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Feestelijk muntje. Jammer dat Kim een keiharde dictator is die de helft van de bevolking in een slavenkamp heeft gestopt en de VS met nukes heeft bedreigd. Dat is misschien toch wel een smetje.

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 08:07 schreef Ludachrist het volgende:

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Die reiken ze niet uit dit jaar.

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GOP senators are faulting the administration for a disorganized approach.

They say Trump was wrong to threaten sanctions, causing turmoil in markets, only to pull back and declare the trade war over, before reversing course again with new threats.

“Is there a plan somewhere?” asked Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 05:28 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
Dit vond ik wel een mooie

In 2018 en 1901. Let de op de leeftijd van de groepen.

[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 07:53 schreef RM-rf het volgende:

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Literatuur is nog te vergeven: Best Work of Fiction

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Op woensdag 23 mei 2018 07:53 schreef RM-rf het volgende:

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Literatuur is nog te vergeven: Best Work of Fiction

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Aanleiding voor het uitstel is een schandaal binnen de Zweedse academie. Een van de leden is de dichteres Katarina Frostenson. Haar man, een kopstuk binnen de culturele sector in Zweden, wordt ervan beschuldigd dat hij zeker achttien vrouwen seksueel heeft misbruikt, onder meer in gebouwen van de academie.