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pi_177572197
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 11:49 schreef Nintex het volgende:
Er is een fonds waarmee dat soort zaken discreet afgehandeld worden. Inmiddels zijn er al flinke bedragen uitgekeerd aan (anonieme) slachtoffers om zaken te schikken.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/22/senate-says-its-paid-out-1-5m-to-settle-harassment-claims/
Wat heeft dat te maken met het huis van afgevaardigden van Colorado?
Volkorenbrood: "Geen quotes meer in jullie sigs gaarne."
pi_177572234
quote:
1s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 11:52 schreef Monolith het volgende:

[..]

Wat heeft dat te maken met het huis van afgevaardigden van Colorado?
Ik vergat de post waarop ik reageerde te quoten meneer de FOK! BOA. :s)
  zaterdag 3 maart 2018 @ 11:58:27 #228
44703 ExtraWaskracht
Laat maar lekker draaien
pi_177572346
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 11:53 schreef Nintex het volgende:

[..]

Ik vergat de post waarop ik reageerde te quoten meneer de FOK! BOA. :s)
Ok, maar ik doelde op de senaat van Colorado, niet die van de VS.
pi_177572784
quote:
1s.gif Op vrijdag 2 maart 2018 20:13 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:

[..]

Het is gewoon een feit dat de partij die niet de president levert tijdens midterms beter scoort, dat de voorsprong van die partij tussen het moment 8 maanden voor de verkiezingen en eind november bijna altijd uitloopt in plaats van minder wordt, etcetera. Dat is jaar na jaar na jaar zo. Geen reden om aan te nemen dat dat nu niet zo is.
Oh ja? Kom maar met cijfers dan.
Volkorenbrood: "Geen quotes meer in jullie sigs gaarne."
pi_177573189
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 12:16 schreef Monolith het volgende:

[..]

Oh ja? Kom maar met cijfers dan.
"Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance. The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Zie ook: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

"Since the end of World War II, the party in control of the White House has, on average, had a net loss of 26 House seats in midterm elections. Democrats can win control of the House with a net gain of 24 seats in November. They’d need to win two seats to gain a majority in the Senate."

"Average result, since 1970, for President’s Party in midterm when job approval is below 50%: 33 seat loss"

Artikel waar deze quotes uit komen en er ook uitgebreid ingegaan wordt op historische trends bij midterm elections:
https://www.bloomberg.com(...)m-elections-preview/

"As I’ve written previously, the generic ballot, even this early in a midterm cycle, can be quite predictive of the outcome of the following year’s House elections. Once you control for which party is in the White House, the generic ballot about 18 months before a midterm election is strongly correlated (+.78) with the eventual House result — i.e., the share of votes cast for the president’s party versus the share of votes cast for the opposition party."

"Generally, in the runup to the midterms, the party that doesn’t control the White House (now, the Democrats) generally sees its position on the generic ballot improve — or remain stable. Given the Democrats’ current 7-point advantage, they’d be expected to win the 2018 national House vote by about 9 percentage points"

https://fivethirtyeight.c(...)erms-are-shaping-up/

Trump is niet populair, de Dems leiden in de peilingen en nagenoeg alle special elections laten een significante shift richting de Dems zien. Dus er lijkt me vooralsnog geen reden om aan te nemen dat er sprake zou zijn van een trendbreuk.

[ Bericht 3% gewijzigd door westwoodblvd op 03-03-2018 12:41:40 ]
pi_177575690
Canada, top exporter of steel and aluminum to U.S., ‘flabbergasted’ by Trump’s tariff proposals (WaPo)
quote:
Canadians reacted with a mixture of anger, confusion and resignation this week to President Trump’s promise to hit U.S. imports of steel and aluminum with hefty tariffs, upending decades of economic cooperation and integration.

“We’re pretty consistently flabbergasted that Canada is at the top of the hit parade of trade villains” in Trump’s eyes, said Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal.

Under the Trump policies announced Thursday, steel imported into the United States would be slapped with a 25 percent tariff and aluminum with a 10 percent tariff. The announcement sent shudders through world markets and prompted a global outcry, with European allies and others threatening retaliation.

Trump has often accused China of forcing U.S. steel and aluminum companies to fold by inundating the market with cheaper materials. But Canada is the largest exporter of steel and aluminum to the United States, supplying $7.2 billion of aluminum and $4.3 billion of steel to the United States last year.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariff proposal “absolutely unacceptable,” using the same phrase as Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, who also threatened retaliatory measures if Canada isn’t exempted from the trade actions.
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pi_177575845
Roy Moore issues grievance-laden plea for money: ‘My resources have been depleted’ (WaPo)
quote:
Embattled former Senate candidate Roy Moore is making a public plea for help to pay the legal fees he faces defending himself from a lawsuit brought by an Alabama woman who says he touched her sexually when she was 14 years old.

In a statement posted on his Senate campaign’s Facebook page, the Republican former judge made the ask in a grievance-filled note, saying that he faced a “vicious attack from lawyers in Washington D.C. and San Francisco who have hired one of the biggest firms in Birmingham Alabama to bring another legal action against me.”

“My resources have been depleted and I have struggled to make ends meet,” Moore wrote, saying that his legal fees could exceed $100,000. “I have had to establish a legal defense fund, anything you give will be appreciated.”
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pi_177575896
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 14:30 schreef brokjespoes het volgende:
Roy Moore issues grievance-laden plea for money: ‘My resources have been depleted’ (WaPo)

[..]

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Doneert alstublieft aan deze arme homohatende racistische pedofiel. Arme man.
pi_177576247
quote:
9s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 14:32 schreef Tchock het volgende:

[..]

Doneert alstublieft aan deze arme homohatende racistische pedofiel. Arme man.
Nee, dit is Gods plan voor onze Roy.

Misschien dat Martijn nog ergens een potje heeft voor pedo's in het nauw?
pi_177576371
Sarah Huckabee Sanders clarifies: Trump said lots of stuff this week he may not mean

[...]

On whether Trump's tariffs decision is final: “This is something he's wanted to do for a while. Never say never, but I think he's pretty committed to moving this forward.”

https://www.washingtonpos(...)week-he-may-not-mean
pi_177576512
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 14:47 schreef Sarah Huckabee Sanders het volgende:
Trump said lots of stuff this week he may not mean
And the week before, and the week before that, and the week before that, and the week before that, and and and...
quote:
In 406 days, President Trump has made 2,436 false or misleading claims (Updated March 1, 2018)

https://www.washingtonpos(...)ump-claims-database/


[ Bericht 1% gewijzigd door brokjespoes op 03-03-2018 15:04:05 ]
pi_177577356
quote:
1s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 12:34 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:

[..]

"Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance. The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Zie ook: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

"Since the end of World War II, the party in control of the White House has, on average, had a net loss of 26 House seats in midterm elections. Democrats can win control of the House with a net gain of 24 seats in November. They’d need to win two seats to gain a majority in the Senate."

"Average result, since 1970, for President’s Party in midterm when job approval is below 50%: 33 seat loss"

Artikel waar deze quotes uit komen en er ook uitgebreid ingegaan wordt op historische trends bij midterm elections:
https://www.bloomberg.com(...)m-elections-preview/
In je eigen artikel zie je al dat het geen garantie is dat de partij van de zittende president zetels verliest (laat staan de controle). Maar het ging me meer om de claim dat "De voorsprong van die partij tussen het moment 8 maanden voor de verkiezingen en eind november bijna altijd uitloopt in plaats van minder wordt". Die zie ik in het artikel zo snel niet onderbouwd worden.

Het gaat in de midterms zoals het er nu voorstaat OOK vooral om de controle in het huis van afgevaardigden, zoals het Bloomberg stuk beschrijft. Daarbij is het wat vreemd om 'een gemiddeld verlies van 33 zetels' te pakken. Kijk je naar de twaalf voorgaande metingen, dan zie je dat het 7 keer minder dan 24 zetels winst was en 5 keer meer. Er is ook wel enige relatie met favorability ratings te zien (wel met een beperkt aantal datapunten).
De midterms gaan in mijn ogen toch vooral om de 'enthousiasm gap' daar zie je nu eigenlijk al wel dat in special elections de Democraten het veelal nog weer beter doen dan de peilingen.
Volkorenbrood: "Geen quotes meer in jullie sigs gaarne."
  zaterdag 3 maart 2018 @ 15:34:53 #239
44703 ExtraWaskracht
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pi_177577556
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 15:27 schreef Monolith het volgende:
Maar het ging me meer om de claim dat "De voorsprong van die partij tussen het moment 8 maanden voor de verkiezingen en eind november bijna altijd uitloopt in plaats van minder wordt". Die zie ik in het artikel zo snel niet onderbouwd worden.
Ik zie de claim ook niet expliciet gemaakt worden, maar kan op zich toch een afleiding zijn van deze grafiek over 18-24 maanden vooraf?



Gecombineerd met de laatste set aan polls:



Je ziet dat de trend bij de 2e mooi door de oorsprong loopt en 18-24 maanden vooraf er duidelijk onder. Nu is dat ietsje anders dan 8 maanden vooraf, want dat is geen 18-24 maanden vooraf, maar goed.
  zaterdag 3 maart 2018 @ 15:54:16 #240
65394 Montov
Dogmaticus Irritantus
pi_177578032
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 14:47 schreef westwoodblvd het volgende:
Sarah Huckabee Sanders clarifies: Trump said lots of stuff this week he may not mean

[...]

On whether Trump's tariffs decision is final: “This is something he's wanted to do for a while. Never say never, but I think he's pretty committed to moving this forward.”

https://www.washingtonpos(...)week-he-may-not-mean
Amateuristisch en incompetent. Maar wel de lenigheid om zijn voet in de mond te stoppen.
Géén kloon van tvlxd!
pi_177579507
quote:
Privately, some aides have expressed frustration that Mr. Kushner and his wife, the president's daughter Ivanka Trump, have remained at the White House, despite Mr. Trump at times saying they never should have come to the White House and should leave. Yet aides also noted that Mr. Trump has told the couple that they should keep serving in their roles, even as he has privately asked Mr. Kelly for his help in moving them out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2(...)&pgtype=sectionfront
Question authorities, fuck religion, educate yourself, Viva el individualismo!
There's only one way of life, and that's your own!
pi_177580201
quote:
0s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 09:32 schreef Montov het volgende:

[..]

Een advocaat die van eigen geld iemand betaalt om te zwijgen over een relatie met zijn client net voor de verkiezing. Moerassig.
kylegriffin1 twitterde op zaterdag 03-03-2018 om 17:15:31 CREW wants the Office of Government Ethics to investigate whether Trump had an undisclosed interest in the company used to pay Stormy Daniels. https://t.co/Ujfs6e4btJ reageer retweet
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
pi_177580250
Studies find Trump health care will drive up premiums

quote:
Premiums on the individual market are likely to shoot up and fewer people will be insured next year, thanks to President Donald Trump's latest moves on health care, according to two independent studies.

A report by the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, examined the Republican tax bill's elimination of the individual mandate, which requires people to maintain coverage or pay a penalty, along with the White House's recent move to allow customers to purchase cheaper short-term insurance plans for up to a year. These plans can reject coverage based on preexisting conditions and offer more limited benefits than plans approved by Obamacare.

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“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
pi_177580326
Trump's embrace of Russia: The evidence on public display already paints a jarring picture

quote:
As Robert Mueller accumulates guilty pleas and cooperating witnesses, President Donald Trump stands behind a final redoubt: Nobody has shown he conspired with Russia in 2016.

Whether Mueller ultimately alleges such a crime remains unknown. He now has help from Trump's former national security advisor, deputy campaign chief and campaign foreign policy advisor — all of whom have admitted felonies.

But whatever the special counsel concludes legally about "collusion," evidence on public display already paints a jarring picture. It shows an American president who has embraced Russian money and illicit favors, while maintaining rhetoric and policies benefiting Russia and undercutting national security officials of his own country.

That in-plain-sight reality gets obscured by the Trump news avalanche. So it's worth reviewing what's been established so far.

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Holder predicts Mueller trying to bolster obstruction of justice case
quote:
Former Attorney General Eric Holder said Friday that special counsel Robert Mueller likely already has a case for obstruction of justice against President Trump, and is waiting to bring the case before a grand jury.

In an interview on HBO's "Real Time with Bill Maher," Holder expressed faith that the sprawling Mueller probe would result in more charges.

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Ex-CIA chief: Trump 'unstable, inept, inexperienced, and also unethical'

quote:
Former CIA chief John Brennan on Friday predicted "rough waters ahead," particularly on international issues, saying President Trump is "unstable, inept, inexperienced, and also unethical."

In an interview with MSNBC's "Deadline: White House," Brennan told host Nicolle Wallace that the president was "ill prepared" to take on the duties of commander in chief, particularly growing military aggression from Russia and North Korea.

"It is no secret to anybody that Donald Trump was very ill prepared and unexperienced in terms of dealing with matters that a head of state needs to deal with, head of government, and I think this is now coming to roost," Brennan said.

"Our country needs to have confidence that we're going to be able to deal with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who is flexing his muscles once again on the military front, that we can deal with North Korea, that we can deal with these issues. And if we have somebody in the Oval Office who is unstable, inept, inexperienced, and also unethical -- we really have rough waters ahead."

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[ Bericht 17% gewijzigd door Kijkertje op 03-03-2018 18:01:41 ]
“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
pi_177580589
Questions raised over border wall contract awarded to small startup

quote:
Questions are being raised about a small Nebraska company awarded the first construction contract for President Trump's long-promised border wall.

The Associated Press reported Friday that Nebraska-based SWF Constructors, which won an $11 million federal contract in November as part of a project to replace a roughly 2-mile stretch of border fencing in California, is the offshoot of a New York-based firm with a history of allegedly failing to pay subcontractors.

SWF is owned by Coastal Environmental Group, a construction firm based in Edgewood, N.Y., that has been sued multiple times for refusing to pay subcontractors, the AP reported. The Interior Department also found $2 million in questionable spending from the company in a 2016 audit.

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“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
pi_177581890
Man man man.

realDonaldTrump twitterde op zaterdag 03-03-2018 om 18:53:50 If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance! reageer retweet
Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.
Far across the moonbeam I know that's who you are
pi_177582063
quote:
9s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 18:57 schreef nostra het volgende:
Man man man.

realDonaldTrump twitterde op zaterdag 03-03-2018 om 18:53:50 If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance! reageer retweet
Hij lijkt er geen flauw benul van te hebben dat er een heel scala aan redenen is waarom Amerikaanse automodellen in Europa over het algemeen sowieso niet heel lekker verkopen. Hij vergeet tevens eventjes dat veel Europese (en Japanse, btw) autofabrikanten al sinds decennia fabrieken in de USA hebben staan, oa voor de lokale verkoop.
pi_177582180
quote:
9s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 18:57 schreef nostra het volgende:
Man man man.

realDonaldTrump twitterde op zaterdag 03-03-2018 om 18:53:50 If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance! reageer retweet
Dit is dus waarom TTIP zo belangrijk was
pi_177582449
Trade War, What Is It Good For? Absolutely Nothing (NYTimes)
quote:
We’ve known all along that Donald Trump is belligerently ignorant about economics (and many other things). But up to this point that hasn’t mattered much. He took office amid a sustained recovery that began under his predecessor, and that recovery had already lifted the U.S. economy to the point where “normal” policy rules apply: interest rates are above zero, monetary policy is effective again, so short-term economic management is in the fairly reliable hands of the Federal Reserve, not the chaotic Trump White House. What the president didn’t know couldn’t hurt us.

But there was always reason to be concerned about the possibility of crisis — either a crisis created by outside forces, like some kind of financial collapse, or one created by the administration itself. In that case the Fed’s rationality wouldn’t be enough. And it’s starting to look like we have a trade policy crisis on our hands.

Trump has always had a thing about trade, which he sees the way he sees everything: as a test of power and masculinity. It’s all about who sells more: if we run a trade surplus we win, if we run a trade deficit, we lose.

This is, of course, nonsense.
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Trump's Steel Tariffs Raise Fears of a Damaging Trade War (NYTimes)
quote:
After making good on tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks that business leaders wanted, President Trump has turned to a part of his economic agenda that many of them feared: tariffs.

Those leaders worry that Mr. Trump, by imposing stiff and sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum, will set off a trade war with other countries. The global tit-for-tat could hurt American exporters and raise costs for manufacturers that rely on a vast supply chain around the world.

If that happens, it will crimp economic growth, undermining the stimulative effects of Mr. Trump's deregulation push and his signature $1.5 trillion tax cut.

The odds of such an outcome now appear to be rising, prompting congressional Republicans to push Mr. Trump in public and in private to reconsider. "If the president goes through with this, it will kill American jobs -- that's what every trade war ultimately does," Senator Ben Sasse, Republican of Nebraska, said on Friday. "So much losing."

So far, Mr. Trump is not having any of that criticism, saying on Twitter on Friday that "trade wars are good, and easy to win."

That's not how trade wars usually go.
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[ Bericht 24% gewijzigd door brokjespoes op 03-03-2018 19:32:13 ]
pi_177582793
quote:
9s.gif Op zaterdag 3 maart 2018 18:57 schreef nostra het volgende:
Man man man.

realDonaldTrump twitterde op zaterdag 03-03-2018 om 18:53:50 If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S. They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance! reageer retweet
De President heeft hiervan toch géen benul.
Wie bedenkt dit in zijn plaats. Een stagiaire?
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