Hurricane Season 2018: A new dawn

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Op donderdag 24 mei 2018 08:46 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ook een invest in de Golf van Mexico.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Op donderdag 24 mei 2018 08:54 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
Wat is die ene site ook alweer waar je percentages enzo ziet (in dat gebied alleen, dus niet Cyclocane)?

Edit: OP

twitter:

ABC twitterde op vrijdag 25-05-2018 om 13:03:03 NOAA predicts near or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, with 70% likelihood of 10-16 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 1-4 major hurricanes. https://t.co/bz2ygaxxFm https://t.co/7NlWw9Qzfz reageer retweet

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Hurricane Bud affecting Mexico, heading to Baja

Hurricane "Bud," the second hurricane of the 2018 East Pacific hurricane season, is strengthening off the southwest coast of Mexico and is expected to become a major hurricane today. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible across much of southwestern Mexico. While this system is expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico during the next few days, landfall is expected somewhere along the southern tip of Baja California Sur over the coming weekend.

A new tropical depression, the second of 2018 East Pacific hurricane season, formed June 8, 2018 well south of Mexico and strengthened into a tropical storm, named Bud, at 03:00 UTC on the following day.

At the time, Bud's center was located 535 km (330 miles) S of Zihuatanejo and 920 km (575 miles) SSE of Cabo Corrientes.

Bud became a hurricane, the second of the season, by 21:00 UTC on June 10, forcing the Government of Mexico to issue Tropical Storm Watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. At the time, Bud was moving toward the northwest near 15 km/h (9 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and minimum central pressure of 987 hPa.

At 09:00 UTC on June 11, the center of Hurricane "Bud" was located 355 km (220 miles) SSW of Manzanillo and 460 km (285 miles). The system had maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph), making it a Category 2 hurricane, and minimum central pressure of 970 hPa.

Bud is moving to the northwest at 17 km/h (10 mph), and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed.

A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Tuesday, June 12 and slow NNW motion should continue into mid-week. Some strengthening is expected today, and Bud could become a major hurricane by the end of the day.

On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico during the next few days.

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Flash floods hit Guadalajara

Heavy rain associated with Tropical Cyclone "Bud" hit Guadalajara, Mexico on June 10, 2018, producing severe flash floods in several parts of the city, including the light rain system where 40 people had to be rescued.

As reported by Mexico News Daily, water up to 4 m (13 feet) flooded the Dermatologico station on Line 1, trapping about 40 people inside the carriages. Civil Protection personnel, firefighters and locals contributed to the rescue efforts.

Authorities said one person showed signs of hypothermia and received medical treatment.

The water also entered Zoquipan and Zapopan hospitals.

A canal running parallel to Patria Avenue in Zapopan overflowed and flooded nearby areas, stranding several cars.

Several other roads in the city affected, including the tunnel on Washington Avenue, Federalismo Avenue and the city's ring road between Melchor Ocampo and Pino Suarez.

Jalisco Governor Aristóteles Sandoval said last night that there were no reports of injuries.

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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 19

Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds,
and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the
north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT
data is available over Bud tonight.

The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to
increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja
California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to
continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than
indicated in the forecast.

Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward
at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The southerly flow ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some
increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48
hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the
cyclone.

Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please see products issued by your local weather service office.