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Welkom! Hier alweer het volgende deel in de reeks Hurricane Season! Alle informatie over het ontstaan van nieuwe orkanen, tyfoons en cyclonen in 2018 vind je hier. En natuurlijk volgen we ze allemaal op de voet! Voor zowel Atlantische, Indische als Pacifische stormen kan je hier terecht!

Algemene Info
Met de term 'Hurricane Season' bedoelden we in eerste instantie de periode van 1 juni tot en met 30 november. Deze periode wordt in de Atlantische Oceaan en de Golf van Mexico gezien als het Atlantische orkaanseizoen. Echter komen deze gewelddadige stormen overal in de wereld voor maar met name delen van AziŽ, de Golf van Mexico en de Cariben worden jaarlijks zwaar getroffen. Deze allesverwoestende stormen richten voor miljarden euro's schade en eisen jaarlijks soms duizenden slachtoffers en tienduizenden daklozen. In het westelijke deel van de wereld noemen we deze stormen 'orkanen' of 'hurricanes'. In AziŽ of AustraliŽ worden ze vaak 'cyclonen' of 'tyfoons' genoemd.

In de laatste jaren zijn Tropische Stormen, Orkanen en Cyclonen meer en meer in de media gekomen en het lijkt daardoor ook alsof ze meer en meer slachtoffers maken. Ook wordt gesuggereerd dat door de opwarming van de aarde deze stormen nog intensiever en dodelijker worden. Door de opkomst van Social Media zoals Facebook of Twitter kan je soms realtime stormchasers volgen waardoor je voor je gevoel nog dichter bij of in een orkaan zit.

Via Youtube, Discovery of History Channel kan je historische documentaires terugvinden over de gewelddadigste, duurste en dodelijkste stormen uit de geschiedenis. Enkele voorbeelden daarvan zijn Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Floyd (1999), Katrina (2005), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Haiyan (2013, Patricia (2015) en Meranti of Matthew uit 2016. In 2017 trof orkaan Harvey Texas en hield orkaan Irma o.a. huis op St. Maarten en Puerto Rico. Harvey heeft voor bijna 200 miljard dollar aan schade aangericht en is daarmee de 'duurste' orkaan ooit.

Jaarlijks vallen honderden of duizenden slachtoffers in met name AziŽ, de Caribean en (Midden-)Amerika. Naar men denkt was de dodelijkste orkaan ooit in 1970. Toen trof orkaan Bhola India en naar schattingen zijn toen 300.000 tot 500.000 mensen omgekomen.

In 2013 was orkaan Haiyan ťťn van de zwaarste orkanen ooit. Ruim tien miljoen mensen in de Filipijnen werden er door getroffen waarvan meer dan 650000 dakloos werden. Het aantal dodelijke slachtoffers liep op tot ver boven de 5000.

Elk jaar zie je ook weer in de jaaroverzichten van WKN wel ťťn of meerdere dodelijke orkanen voorbij komen.

Hoewel het Atlantische seizoen pas officieel in juni begint zijn er op andere plekken in de wereld zeker meer orkanen te vinden in de komende maanden. We zullen ook deze dus zeker gaan bespreken. Bij zeer zware orkanen zullen er ook extra topics mogelijk zijn om deze afzonderlijk te bespreken.

Let op: Orkanen zijn absoluut niet te vergelijken met tornado's!
meer daarover vind je onder andere hier
: WKN / Tornado's in de VS #25 A new day

Orkanen: Hoe ontstaan ze eigenlijk?
Op de site van Wikipedia kan je in het Nederlands nalezen hoe ze ontstaan en wat de belangrijkste energiebron is voor hun verwoestende kracht: het warme zeewater. Enkele interessante filmpjes over het ontstaan (en de ontwikkeling van) een orkaan zijn deze:


Andere links naar het ontstaan van orkaan:
Nasa: How do Hurricanes form?
Nederlandse SchoolTV - Wat is een orkaan?
Engelse BBC - About Hurricanes
LiveScience - Where Hurricanes form

Indeling, Kracht en Stormvloed
De stormen worden ingedeeld op 'categorie'. Vaak zijn het eerst tropische depressies die uitgroeien tot tropische stormen. Deze tropische stormen winnen verder aan kracht en krijgen dan de orkaanstatus (Hurricanes/Tyfoons) Ze worden ingedeeld op windsnelheden via de Saffir-Simpson Schaal. Vanaf categorie 3 krijgen de orkanen de stempel 'zware orkaan' oftewel (Major Hurricane). (In AziŽ & AustraliŽ werken ze met een andere schaal dan in het westen)

Tropische Depressie: windsnelheden van 38 tot 61 km/u
Tropische Storm: windsnelheden van 62 tot 118 km/u
Orkaan 1e categorie: windsnelheden van 119 tot 153 km/u en een stormvloed van 1 tot 1,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 2e categorie: windsnelheden van 154 tot 177 km/u en een stormvloed van 1,5 tot 2,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 3e categorie: windsnelhden van 178 tot 209 km/u en een stormvloed van 2,5 tot 3,7 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 4e categorie: windsnelheden van 210-249 km/u en een stormvloed van 3,8 tot 5,5 meter boven normaal
Orkaan 5e categorie: windsnelheden > 250 km/u en een stormvloed van meer dan 5,5 meter boven normaal

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Voorbeelden van tropische stormen en (zware) orkanen
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Stormvloed/Stormsurge
Door de enorme windkracht van een orkaan wordt het zeewater opgestuwd. Dit zeewater wordt als het ware vooruit geblazen, voor de storm uit. Hoe zwaarder de orkaan des te meer zeewater vooruit wordt geduwd. Deze opstuwing noemen we de stormvloed.(Engelse term die veelal gebruikt wordt is 'stormsurge'. De stormvloed wordt dan ook gemeten bovenop de reguliere golfslag. Je kan het enigszins vergelijken met een muur van water die vooruit wordt geduwd en die voor kustprovincies wereldwijd voor grote problemen kunnen zorgen.


Meer over storm surge:
Oceanservice NOAA Stormsturge en Stormtide
Geology.com What is a stormsurge

Waait het nou echt zo hard bij zo'n orkaan? En die stormvloed, is dat nou echt zo erg?

Schade
De Saffir-Simpson schaal zoals hierboven geeft echter ook de omvang van de schade weer. En die stijgt exponentieel. Een cat.2 orkaan geeft 10x zoveel schade dan een cat.1 Een cat 3 zelfs 50x, een cat 4 zelfs 250x en een categorie 5 orkaan doet 500 x zoveel schade dan een categorie 1 orkaan.

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Onderstaand schema geeft aan waar ter wereld orkanen voorkomen
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Waarom hebben orkanen eigenlijk namen?
De Tropische Depressies worden overal ter wereld in de gaten gehouden en zodra de depressies uitgroeien tot orkaan of cycloon, wordt er een naam aan de storm gegeven. Sinds 1950 krijgen ze namen op alfabetische volgorde (met uitzondering van de letters Q, U, X, Y en Z). Mocht een orkaan vernietigend hebben huisgehouden zoals Floyd, Gilbert en bijv. Katrina, dan zal die naam worden vervangen. Soms komt het ook voor dat alle letters van het alfabet gebruikt zijn in ťťn seizoen (zoals 2005), dan zal een volgende storm Alpha gaan heten, gevolgd door Beta etc etc.

De namen van de Atlantische orkanen voor de komende jaren zijn als volgt
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Ook aan de westkust van de VS en Mexico komen orkanen voor. (De oost-Pacifische orkanen) Verder zijn er dan nog de stormen in het noordwesten, midden en zuiden van de Pacific.Vooral de stormen in het noordwesten komen vaak in het nieuws omdat ze Japan, de Filipijnen, Taiwan en China vaak teisteren, maar ook geheel Zuidoost-AziŽ kunnen treffen. Ook in de Indische oceaan komen ze voor, daar zijn vaak Bangladesh en Myanmar aan de beurt, maar soms ook India, Pakistan of zelfs Oman. Tevens komen orkanen voor aan de oostkust van Afrika, met name voor de kust van Madagascar.

Meer informatie over de namen van alle orkanen vind je hier.

Leuk hoor allemaal, maar wanneer zijn die orkaanseizoenen dan precies?
ATLANTISCHE OCEAAN: 1 juni t/m 30 november, met pieken eind augustus en september
NOORD OOST PACIFIC:Begin mei t/m begin november, met piek in augustus/september
NOORD WEST PACIFIC: Begin juli t/m eind november, maar eigenlijk hele jaar door activiteit.
NOORD INDISCHE OCEAAN: april t/m december met pieken in mei en november
ZUID INDISCHE + WEST AUSTRALISCHE OCEAAN: oktober t/m mei met pieken in februari en april
ZUID WEST PACIFIC + OOST AUSTRALISCHE OCEAAN: oktober tot eind april met piek in februari.

Over het algemeen is Mei de rustigste maand en September de zwaarste.

En? Zijn er al verwachtingen en/of voorspellingen voor het Atlantische seizoen in 2018?

In oktober van 2017 kwam er al een verontrustend bericht naar buiten over 2018. Aangezien 2017, na een El-Nino jaar, al een vreselijk zwaar orkaanseizoen voor de Cariben is geweest, was men bang dat 2018 nog wel eens zwaarder kon worden vanwege het La Nina effect. Het is nog even afwachten hoe sterk La Nina daadwerkelijk is om te zien of dit effect zal hebben op het Atlantische orkaanseizoen.

Ook het GWO, het instituut dat voor 2017 de, achteraf gezien, meest accurate voorspelling deed spreekt van een zware cyclus die op ons af komt en voorspeld ook voor 2018 een zwaar orkaanseizoen.

In de komende maanden zullen nieuwe voorspellingen volgen en die volgen wij natuurlijk ook.

Meer informatie is er ook te vinden op de Wiki-pagina voor het Atlantische orkaanseizoen 2017

Laatste topic van 2017
WKN / Hurricane Season 2017 #2: The year after El Nino

Oude delen van Hurricane Season vind je hier:
Topicreeks: Hurricane Season

Orkanen moet je dus aub niet verwarren met tornado's, dat topic vind je hier:
WKN / Tornado's in de VS #25 A new day

Enkele handige links en overig nuttig leesvoer

1. National Hurricane Centre
2. Carribean Storm Network
3. Hurricanezone
4. Hurricane Track
5. Website met satelietbeelden van de Caribbean en de rest van Amerika
6. Intellicast: Geavanceerde satellietfoto's en gifs van aktuele stormen
7. Tropical Weather Underground
8. Weather.org - Stormwatch
9. Wikipedia Hurricanes/Tyfonen in het algemeen
10. Alle stormen ter wereld van de laatste jaren in overzicht
11. Severe Worldweather
12. Orkanensite in de Filipijnen
13. Cyclocane.com
14. Tropical Tidbits
15. Tropische weersite omgeving AustraliŽ
16. Mooie site over Orkanen aan de VS kusten
17. Website van NASA over Hurricanes
18. Windfinder - Windrapporten wereldwijd
19. Storm2k - Amerikaans weerforum
20. Earth Nullschool - actuele windstromen gezien vanuit de ruimte
21. Actual wind shear Atlantic Ocean
22. Tropical Storm Risk worldwide

Opmerkelijke en historische orkanen
-- Hurricane Patricia 2015
-- Cyclone Bhola 1970
-- Typhoon Nina 1975
-- Hurricane Kenna 2002
-- Hurricane Pauline 1997
-- Hurricane Iniki 1992
-- Great Galveston Hurricane 1900
-- Hurricane Ike 2008
-- Great Hurricane of 1780
-- Hurricane Andrew 1992
-- Hurricane Katrina 2005
-- Typhoon Meranti 2016
-- Cyclone Nargis 2008
-- Tyfoon Haiyan 2013
-- Bangladesh Cyclone 1991
-- Hurricane Sandy 2012
-- Hurricane Matthew 2016
-- Hurricane Wilma 2005
-- Hurricane Harvey 2017
-- Hurricane Irma 2017
-- Hurricane Maria 2017

Atlantische Orkaanseizoenen uit de oude doos
-- Hurricane Season 2018 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2017 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2016 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2015 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2014 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2013 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2012 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2011 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2010 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2009 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2008 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2007 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2006 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2005 - Wikipedia
-- Hurricane Season 2004 - Wikipedia

Actuele Weerradar in Golf van Mexico
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Actuele Water temperatuur.
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[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door Frutsel op 01-05-2018 12:01:15 ]
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metofficestorms twitterde op woensdag 03-01-2018 om 09:52:53 Newly formed Tropical Storm #Ava expected to make landfall over #Madagascar within the next 48 hours. https://t.co/wXeaGf8fMJ reageer retweet
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Tropical Cyclone Ava threatening Madagascar
A tropical cyclone designated 03S, named Ava at 09:00 UTC, January 3, has formed east of Madagascar and is currently affecting Reunion, Mauritius and especially northern Madagascar where heavy rain is already causing problems. This system is expected to continue organizing and gaining strength until it makes landfall early Friday, January 5, 2018 (UTC) along the northeastern coast of Madagascar. Be ready for strong winds, dangerous storm surge, heavy rain, flooding and landslides.

Ava is the first named cyclone of the 2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. It comes unusually late in a season which runs November 15 through April 30/May 15.

Showers produced by TC03S, now Ava, started across northern Madagascar late Tuesday, January 2 and intensified overnight Wednesday, reaching close to and over 200 mm (7.8 inches) in some places by Wednesday morning. Reunion and Mauritius saw first drops of rain around 09:00 UTC Tuesday and accumulated close to 100 mm (3.9 inches) in places over the next 24 hours.

This is a slow-moving cyclone with a potential to drop huge amounts of rain on Madagascar over the next couple of days, before and after landfall which is expected sometime around 09:00 UTC on January 5 in the vicinity of Toamasina (Madagascar is UTC+3).

These pre-landfall rains could set the stage for some serious flooding after already heavily soaked ground receives more intense downpours.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected as well as dangerous storm surge on top of rainfall amounts of 200 - 400 mm (8 - 16 inches), locally over 600 mm (24 inches).

Reunion and Mauritius are not in a direct track of this storm but will experience its effects over the next couple of days.
  vrijdag 5 januari 2018 @ 08:21:50 #4
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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Madagascar.

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Ava made landfall as a category 2 hurricane

Tropical Cyclone "Ava" made landfall in Toamasina, Madagascar on January 5, 2018 with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (103 mph), an equivalent a Category 2 hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ava is dropping heavy rain on Madagascar for several days now and is expected to continue producing heavy rains, strong winds and flooding as it moves over and along the coast of Madagascar over the next couple of days.

Ava is the first named cyclone of the unusually slow 2017-18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. The season officially began on November 15, 2017, and will end officially on April 30, 2018, with the exception for Mauritius and Seychelles, for which it will end on May 15, 2018.

It reached hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (103 mph) around 15:00 UTC on January 5, a couple of hours before it made landfall.

Rising water levels have been observed in the Alaotra Mangoro and Analanjirofo regions, while flooding, interruptions to communications networks and power cuts have been reported in Fokontany Ambinany (Soanierana Ivongo), according to UN OCHA. Preventive evacuations began in Brickaville on January 4.

Mťtťo Madagascar, the national weather service for the country has issued red alerts and yellow alerts that cover a large area of the island's east coast.

Ava's interaction with land has somewhat weakened it and further weakening is expected as it traverses the country, but its heavy rain and strong winds will remain a significant threat to lives and property over the weekend.

There is a very high risk of major flooding and landslides as some places might receive as between 200 and 400 mm (8 - 16 inches) of rain and as much as 600 mm (24 inches) total.
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Tropische Storm Irving in de Indische Oceaan, vooralsnog geen bedreiging voor land
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29 killed, 80 000 affected by Madagascar cyclone

Antananarivo - Twenty-nine people died and more than 80 000 were affected after tropical cyclone Ava tore through Madagascar last week, authorities said on Monday.

Seventeen people died on Monday, after a house crumbled following a mudslide in the Ivory suburb, south-east of the capital Antananarivo.

"On a national scale, the provisional toll is 29 dead, 22 missing, 17 170 displaced and 83 023 affected," the National Bureau for Risk and Catastrophe Management said in a statement.

The cyclone, which made landfall on Friday morning, lashed the eastern part of the African island off Mozambique with violent winds and heavy rains before moving off the territory on Saturday night.

The cyclone caused flash flooding in the capital Antananarivo and the port city of Toamasina and in the eastern town of Tamatave. Several homes were without power and roads cut off by felled trees.

Madagascar, one of the world's poorest countries, is regularly hit by cyclones.

In March last year, cyclone Enawo killed at least 78 people.
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Voor de kust van AustraliŽ hangt ook wat

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Tropical Storm Joyce formed
Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" formed late January 10, 2018 (UTC), near the west Kimberly coast, Western Australia. The system is expected to intensify while moving in a S to SW direction. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting the Pilbara or far west Kimberley coast during Friday or early on Saturday, BOM warns. This is the 5th named storm of the 2017-18 Australian region tropical cyclone season.

As of 06:47 UTC (14:47 AWST) on January 11, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" was located about 90 km (56 miles) NW of Broome and 155 km (96 miles) N of Bidyadanga. The system has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (46 mph) with wind gusts to 100 km/h (62 mph) and is moving S at 9 km/h (5.6 mph), according to BOM.

Cape Leveque to Port Hedland, including Broome and Port Hedland, as well as remaining inland parts of the far western Kimberley and far northeast Pilbara are currently in the warning zone.

Port Hedland to Dampier, including Karratha and Dampier, as well as remaining inland parts of the central and eastern Pilbara, including Nullagine, Marble Bar, Telfer, Newman and Tom Price are in the watch zone.

According to BOM, gales with gusts to 100 km/h (62 mph) are possible today between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. Gales may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday evening (local time), and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland on Friday. If the system tracks further to the west, gales will be possible in areas between Port Hedland and Karratha on Saturday.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph) may develop in coastal parts between Beagle Bay and Wallal Downs, including Broome, on Thursday evening if the system is close enough to the coast. Destructive winds may extend to Pardoo Roadhouse during Friday.

Very destructive winds with gusts to 180 km/h (112 mph) are possible near the center of the system on Friday, if it develops into a severe tropical cyclone.

Tides will be higher than expected between Cape Leveque and Pardoo Roadhouse, BOM warns.

Heavy rainfall is expected over the northwest and west Kimberley coast, extending to the far eastern Pilbara during Thursday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 to 150 mm (1.9 - 5.9 inches) are expected with isolated heavier falls of 150 - 300 mm (5.9 - 11.8 inches) possible.
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Death toll in Madagascar cyclone rises to 33 as 22 missing

LATEST: Madagascar cyclone deaths rise to 78, at least 400 000 affected
Johannesburg - The UN humanitarian agency says the death toll from a cyclone in Madagascar has reached 33.

A statement on Wednesday cites Malagasy authorities and says another 22 people remain missing.

Tropical Cyclone Ava struck the Indian Ocean island over the weekend, causing the evacuation of more than 24 000 people.

The new statement says more than 34 000 children are out of school and road access to some areas in the country's south has been cut off.
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Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" makes landfall near Wallal Downs, Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone "Joyce" made landfall near Eighty Mile Beach, west of Wallal Downs in Western Australia just before 10:00 UTC on January 12, 2018 as Category 1 cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. The system is expected to continue weakening as it interacts with the land but heavy rain is still expected to continue along its track over the weekend.

As of 09:00 UTC (17:00 AWST) on January 12, one hour before landfall, Joyce sustained winds near the center of 65 km/h (40 mph) and gusts to 95 km/h (59 mph). It was moving SW at 12 km/h (7 mph).

With its center now over land, the system is causing heavy rain and gusty winds over the northwestern parts of Western Australia. Bidyadanga to De Grey, as well as inland parts of the northeast Pilbara including Marble Bar are currently in the Warning Zone.

While the wind threat will ease overnight, heavy rain is expected to continue along Joyce's track over the weekend. Widespread daily rainfall totals of around 50 - 100 mm (2 - 4 inches) are expected, with isolated totals up to 250 mm (10 inches) possible near the center.

People living in areas south of Bidyadanga to Wallal are on Yellow Alert - take action and get ready to shelter. Areas south of Wallal to De Grey and inland to Marble Bar are on Blue Alert - prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
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La Reunion en Mauritius kunnen nog wel last krijgen van bovenstaande/onderstaande orkaan

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Liveblog over Berguitta... wordt mogelijk categorie 3 al spreken zij zelfs van satellietbeelden die op een cat.4 duiden?

https://www.express.co.uk(...)eteo-France-forecast

quote:
11.41am: Intense tropical storm to hit Mauritius on Wednesday

The intense tropical cyclone Berguitta is forecast to strike Mauritius as a tropical cyclone at about 6pm GMT on Wednesday, January 17, moving into the morning of Thursday, January 18 when the majority of the island will have been hit.

La Reunion is expected to be hit at 8am on Thursday, January 18 with winds of 140km/h.

Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests the point of landfall in Mauritius will be near 19.9 S, 58.0 E.

11.03am: Berguitta's satellite imagery suggests the tropical cyclone has the power of a category 4 hurricane

Cody Fields tweeted: "#Berguitta has made the most out of the environment and its satellite presentation resembles that of a Category 4 hurricane. Very bad news for Rťunion and Mauritius."
  maandag 12 februari 2018 @ 10:14:08 #19
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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Monster cycloon net zuid van Tonga... :{

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  maandag 12 februari 2018 @ 10:16:59 #20
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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Tropical cyclone Hola threatens Vanuatu and Loyalty Islands

Tropical Cyclone "Hola" formed March 6, 2018 near Vanuatu as the third named storm of the 2017/18 South Pacific tropical cyclone season. This system will cross Vanuatu over the next 12 - 24 hours and then rapidly intensify as it heads toward the Loyalty Islands. Current models take Hola very near Loyalty Islands as Category 3 or 4 hurricane equivalent.

At 12:00 UTC on March 6, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Hola" was located 209 km (130 miles) NNE of Port Vila, Vanuatu. The system had 10-minute sustained winds at 65 km/h (40 mph) with gusts up to 83 km/h (52 mph) and was moving SW at 15 km/h (9.2 mph). Its minimum barometric pressure was 994 hPa.

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By 18:00 UTC, Hola was 20 km (12.4 miles) E of Poinkros and 23 km (15 miles) E of Fonwor, Vanuatu and at 21:00 UTC almost directly over Ambrym volcano in Vanuatu's Malampa Province.

Hola's center is expected to pass very near or over the Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia on February 9 with maximum sustained winds between 203 and 231 km/h (126 - 143 mph) and gusts to 278 km/h (172 mph).

Bron
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Eliakim gaat Madagascar schampen
Zal weer de nodige regenval met zich meebrengen
  zaterdag 17 maart 2018 @ 11:12:20 #23
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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Marcus bij AustraliŽ, gaat volgens HWRF een cat 5 worden.

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quote:
14s.gif Op zaterdag 17 maart 2018 11:12 schreef aloa het volgende:
Marcus bij AustraliŽ, gaat volgens HWRF een cat 5 worden.

[ afbeelding ]
Wow. Op de Australische schaal of de Saffir?
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quote:
1s.gif Op zaterdag 17 maart 2018 14:03 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Wow. Op de Australische schaal of de Saffir?
1-2 als het in AustraliŽ aankomt, volgens het nieuws aldaar.
http://www.news.com.au/te(...)d1de7b57ded9742237d0
Noriaki Kasai _O_
Laura Dahlmeier O+
Bruna Moura _O_ O+
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Cat4 staat hier trouwens, maar dat is als 'ie al lang buiten AustraliŽ is
https://www.cyclocane.com/
Noriaki Kasai _O_
Laura Dahlmeier O+
Bruna Moura _O_ O+
  zaterdag 17 maart 2018 @ 14:23:47 #27
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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quote:
1s.gif Op zaterdag 17 maart 2018 14:03 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Wow. Op de Australische schaal of de Saffir?
Saffir. Kijk naar de kerndruk, die zit onder de 900
  zaterdag 17 maart 2018 @ 14:30:38 #28
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
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Het water is noord van AustraliŽ boven de 30 graden. Kan al eerder een monster worden.
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quote:
Marcus hits Darwin as category 2 storm
Tropical Cyclone "Marcus" formed March 16, 2018 as the 8th named storm of the 2017/18 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Marcus passed over Darwin as a Category 2 system on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale with sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) and wind gusts to 130 km/h (80 mph) as it moved southwest.

Marcus battered the city with strong winds and heavy rain, bringing down trees and power lines and shutting down local water supply. Emergency services urged residents to stay inside until the system passes.

This storm will continue to bring heavy rainfall and higher than normal tides through the area, which could produce some minor flooding of low-lying areas, BOM warns.

The cyclone warning zone is from Cape Don to Cape Fourcroy and Point Stuart to Mitchell Plateau in WA, this is where gales, sustained winds greater than 60 km/h (37 mph) can be expected in the next 24 hours.

As the system moves down the coast it is likely to interact with land and weaken to a category 1 system, though there is some uncertainty about how it will interact with land.

It will then re-intensify into a Category 2 system as it moves through the Timor Sea and brings destructive winds as it approaches the north Kimberley coast during Sunday, March 18.

There is a cyclone watch for areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cockatoo Island, where gales are possible in the next 24 - 48 hours. This system is likely to affect northern parts of the Kimberley and not move as far south as previous systems this season.
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severeweatherEU twitterde op zondag 18-03-2018 om 14:40:25 *World Weather* Another view of the extreme flash flooding in Belo Horizonte, Brazil on March 16! Report: Taxi do Tiano https://t.co/GAFJQsh8AY reageer retweet
Tis daar ook niet best, storm geweest of veel pech met heel veel neerslag.
  zondag 18 maart 2018 @ 17:51:54 #31
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_177911716
quote:
0s.gif Op zondag 18 maart 2018 14:49 schreef Adrie072 het volgende:
severeweatherEU twitterde op zondag 18-03-2018 om 14:40:25 *World Weather* Another view of the extreme flash flooding in Belo Horizonte, Brazil on March 16! Report: Taxi do Tiano https://t.co/GAFJQsh8AY reageer retweet
Tis daar ook niet best, storm geweest of veel pech met heel veel neerslag.
Ooit een tropische storm geweest daar...normaal gesproken komen ze daar niet voor.
  zondag 18 maart 2018 @ 17:52:10 #32
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_177912411
quote:
14s.gif Op zondag 18 maart 2018 17:51 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ooit een tropische storm geweest daar...normaal gesproken komen ze daar niet voor.
Aha, iig hebben ze wel last van natte voeten helaas.
pi_177950786
quote:
17 fatalities as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" moves over Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit Madagascar's Mananara region on March 17 with wind speeds of 85 km/h (53 mph) and gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph). It then moved over the provinces of Analanjirofo and Antsinanana over the next 2 days, killing at least 17 people and leaving over 6 000 displaced. The storm dropped over 200 mm (7.8 inches) of rain in some areas within 24 hours and continued heading off the central and southeastern coast of Madagascar as a tropical storm.

At least 17 people were killed and 15 772 affected as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit eastern Madagascar over the weekend, authorities confirmed early Monday, March 19, 2018.

1 271 homes have been damaged and 648 destroyed, leaving 6 282 displaced. National authorities also reported that the access to the affected areas may be a major constraint due to a large number of landslides and flooded roads.

At 00:00 UTC on March 19, the center of Tropical Storm "Eliakim" was located 130 km (81 miles) SE of Manakara, Vatovavy-Fitovinany and was moving S at 18 km/h (11.5 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (51 mph).

Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep heading southeast away from land, while strengthening. Heavy rain and strong winds may still affect northern, central and southern Madagascar and La Reunion on March 19 and 20.

Meteo Madagascar has published a red alert for strong winds in the southeastern areas of the country. Meteo France La Reunion has issued an orange alert for strong winds for the southwestern areas of the island.

The last cyclone to strike Madagascar was Ava in January 2018. That storm left 51 people dead.
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[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door Frutsel op 20-03-2018 10:08:17 ]
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quote:
New cyclone coming on Friday
Coastal communities in north-east Arnhem land should prepare now for the predicted Tropical Cyclone Nora, which is expected to hit the region on Friday.

NT Emergency Services chief officer Jason Collins urged residents in this region to make plans, check cyclone kits and to ensure they had enough food and water to last 72 hours.

VHS radios and satellite phones should be charged, and residents should ensure they are aware of the warnings being released.

He urged people, especially tourists, to cancel travel plans to the region.

Although emergency service crews had been kept busy after Tropical Cyclone Marcus hit the Darwin region on Saturday, Mr Collins said fatigue management systems were in place and fresh crews were prepared in the region.

He said it had already been in contact with most communities and outstations by Wednesday afternoon.

"As it continues to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria conditions remain favourable there.

"People need to be preparing now."

It was too early to discern how intense it would be.

Tropical Cyclone Marcus is currently off the coast of Western Australia and a category-four storm, expected to become a category five, but should remain at sea.

The forecast cyclone should not impact Darwin weather.

Four days with no power
That should come as a relief for Darwin residents, as 2,500 homes still had no power on Wednesday afternoon after damage from Tropical Cyclone Marcus.

Power and Water said earlier on Wednesday that some residents could be waiting until Friday before their power is reconnected.

Tap water in the community of Belyuen is once again safe to drink.

'It's been a bit rough'
It could be weeks before Rod Tremlett's household returns to normality, after a mahogany crashed through the roof of his Moil home during the storm.

Given the demand for tradespeople, he thought there could be a long wait before the hole in the ceiling was fixed and power was reconnected.
  vrijdag 23 maart 2018 @ 10:35:30 #36
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_178030657
Nora gaat cat 4 worden. In het noorden van AustraliŽ.

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  vrijdag 23 maart 2018 @ 17:27:57 #37
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_178039019
Drie tropische systemen in een plaatje.

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Keni op weg naar Fiji... daar hebben ze al aardig wat water gehad van de vorige...

quote:
Keni expected to lash Fiji tomorrow
Cyclone Keni is expected to be closest to Fiji about midday tomorrow, on the tail of a week of rain and Cyclone Josie the previous weekend.

Sashi Kiran, of the organisation FRIEND, said homes standing on saturated ground in the country's west and north are at risk with more rain and wind expected.

But she said people were so engrossed coping with recent floods, the impending cyclone is just another worry.

"They have seen their houses go, they have seen their whole cars go, they have seen their entire furniture go into a river. And then after that they've had to live in very wet clothes and in muddy conditions for days."

Sashi Kiran said people had been struggling with lack of drinking water and food.

Flood damage in Ba.Flood damage in Ba. Photo: Facebook/ FRIEND
The director of the Fiji Met Service, Ravindra Kumar, said Keni is expected to be about 120 kilometres off Nadi by mid afternoon Tuesday.

He said on its current southeasterly trajectory it will come within about 100 kilometres to the south of Kadavu Island later on Tuesday afternoon.

He said "we have a got a storm warning for parts of the main island [Viti Levu] and as it comes closer this storm warning will be expanded to most of Viti Levu, the Lau and Lomaiviti group, as well as Kadavu and nearby smaller islands".

Ravindra Kumar said they are anticipating 150 millimetres over 24 hours particularly in the Western Division, which is already sodden after last week's rain.

The cyclone is now a category two storm with sustained winds near its centre of about 100 kilometres an hour.

Meanwile civil servants in Fiji have been advised not to go into work tomorrow as the cyclone approaches

The Fiji Roads Authority has warned a large number of roads in the Western Division are closed, while parts of the key King's and Queen's Highways are reduced to single lane by flooding.

It also said there are significant issues with flooding on some roads in the Central Division.

Fiji Airways has cancelled several international, regional and local flights due to the bad weather.

Today's flights connecting Nadi to Auckland, Port Vila, Australian cities, Hong Kong and Los Angeles have been affected.

On some routes, passengers have been rebooked on other flights.

Fiji's sugar cane farmers brace for more bad weather
Farmers of Fiji's all-important sugar cane crop are bracing for more bad weather amid concerns production has already been chopped by a third.

Cyclone Keni is forecast to bring more rain and wind to western Fiji where most of the country's cane farms are located.

The General Secretary of the Cane Growers Association in Rakiraki, Pushp Dass said farmers were drastically affected by floods over Easter.

He said much of the nearly mature cane either fell down or was totally uprooted and the crop could be down by about 35 percent.

Mr Dass said the farmers will be looking for subsidies or a special cane payment once the bad weather's over.

"They can't do anything at the moment because of waterlogged farms because the rain has hardly stopped since Easter weekend. Mentally they are very disturbed but it's all natural. We can't do much about it."
zie ook:
https://www.accuweather.c(...)across-fiji/70004618
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quote:
Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate Retired Following Devastating 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical cyclones that are so destructive and/or deadly can be retired from future name lists.

Through 2017, 86 Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm names have been retired.

Three tropical cyclone names from 2017 also have been retired in the Western Pacific Basin.

Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate were so destructive and deadly during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season that the World Meteorological Organization's hurricane committee decided this week to retire those names from future Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone name lists.

Just as no New York Yankee will ever again wear number 3 (Babe Ruth), nor will a Green Bay Packer ever claim 15 (Bart Starr), no future Atlantic hurricane will ever be named Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate.

Unlike an athlete's number, however, there is no celebration when an Atlantic name is retired from future use.

Contrary to popular opinion, a committee of the World Meteorological Organization – not the U.S. National Hurricane Center – is responsible for the tropical cyclone name lists.

Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm name lists repeat every six years, unless one is so destructive and/or deadly that the committee votes to retire that name from future lists. This avoids the use of, say, Katrina, Sandy or Maria to describe a future weak, open-ocean tropical storm.

The names Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel will replace Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate when the list is reused again in the year 2023.
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quote:
Above average hurricane season expected
A leading hurricane forecast is calling for a slightly above average storm season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

The prediction from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project was released this morning at the National Tropical Weather Conference in San Antonio.

It follows at least two other forecasts made this month calling for a near average to above average hurricane season.

An average season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

The hyperactive 2017 hurricane season had 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

The federal Climate Prediction Center will release its hurricane forecast in late May.

CSU’s April forecast is a much-anticipated annual event because it’s typically one of the first forecasts of the year and is possibly the longest running. It was started in 1984 by William Gray, who passed away in 2016.

Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, who was mentored by Gray, is now the lead author of the report.

Klotzbach said the forecast was largely based on a prediction that El NiŮo will not appear this summer or fall, with the atmosphere instead transitioning to neutral from a current weak La NiŮa event.

The CSU forecast also considers the probability of hurricanes making landfall. According to today’s prediction, there is a 72 percent chance that a named storm will hit an area that includes Florida’s coastline and the east coast. The average is 61 percent.

The probability of a major hurricane – Category 3-5 – will hit the same region is 39 percent, compared to an average of 31 percent.

“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean,” the CSU forecast notes.
  woensdag 2 mei 2018 @ 18:01:01 #41
300435 Eyjafjallajoekull
Broertje van Katlaah
pi_178895516
Ben benieuwd wat dit jaar gaat brengen.... vorig jaar abnormaal veel uur besteed aan volgen van die webcam streams and waterstanden. Wat een seizoen was dat...
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
  donderdag 10 mei 2018 @ 16:30:59 #42
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_179065195
Powerful Hurricanes Intensify Faster Now Than 30 Years Ago in Parts of the Atlantic Basin, Study Finds

Hurricanes that undergo rapid intensification are now doing so faster and becoming stronger than they did 30 years ago in parts of the Atlantic Basin, according to a new study.

Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. This is difficult to forecast and sometimes cannot be predicted accurately until it has already started to occur.

The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, did not examine the frequency of rapid intensification occurrence, but rather the changes in the magnitude of rapid intensification over the 30-year satellite period from 1986 through 2015. The data came from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The results showed the average increase in wind speed during a 24-hour rapid intensification event is about 13 mph greater than it was 30 years ago in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. The researchers found no similar trend in the western Atlantic, however.

Many factors were contributing to the faster, stronger rapid intensification, the study found, but the main instigator was the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the climate background that all other climate and weather patterns build on in the Atlantic, including El NiŮo.

The AMO affects water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, including the central and eastern tropical Atlantic – known as the main development region – where conditions are most favorable for tropical cyclones to form during the peak of hurricane season in August and September.

https://weather.com/storm(...)ow-than-30-years-ago
  maandag 14 mei 2018 @ 17:53:01 #44
300435 Eyjafjallajoekull
Broertje van Katlaah
pi_179158345
Nog te vroeg om tot iets substantieels te komen. Vooral veel regen waarschijnlijk.

Ik vraag me af of de uitzonderlijke situatie op de Noordpool (warmer dan normaal, erg weinig ijs) nog invloed kan hebben op dit seizoen.
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
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Gaat in de golf van Aden nog wat problemen opleveren.
  donderdag 17 mei 2018 @ 20:17:44 #46
94257 aloa
Steeds harder, steeds sneller
pi_179226911
Rare Tropical Storm in Gulf of Aden May Affect Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti

Tropical Cyclone 1A, which developed late Wednesday between Yemen and Somalia, could become one of the first tropical storms on record to cross the entire Gulf of Aden—perhaps affecting even the tiny nation of Djibouti, where tropical cyclones are virtually unknown. TD 1A was named Cyclonic Storm Sagar by the Indian Meteorological Department, the agency with primary responsibility for tropical cyclone forecasting in the North Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea.

As of 3Z Thursday (11 pm EDT Wednesday), the center of Sagar was placed at about 260 miles east of Aden, Yemen, by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The JTWC pegged Sagar’s strength at 40 knots (45 mph), qualifying it as a weak tropical storm. Showers and thunderstorms pinwheeling around Sagar’s compact core were moving onto the Yemeni coast early Thursday, while a cluster of intense thunderstorms well southeast of Sagar was affecting northeast Somalia (see image above).

The main threat from Sagar will be heavy rainfall. The GFS model indicates that the highlands of northern Somalia could see localized rainfall of 10” or more, with totals perhaps exceeding 2” across other parts of northern Somalia and along the Yemeni coastline. Even those lower amounts are substantial totals in desert environments that don’t typically get much moisture, and where the rugged landscape is prone to flash flooding.

In a special advisory issued on Wednesday and placed online by reliefweb.org, the UK Met Office warned that “severe flash flooding and river flooding across the region will lead to a loss of human life, livestock, and the destruction of crops, property and infrastructure.” The Met Office added: “Very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen (linked to, although not directly from the cyclone) is likely to promote cholera infection rates in the weeks ahead.”

https://www.wunderground.(...)uti?cm_ven=hp-slot-4
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