Politieke ontwikkelingen in het Midden-Oosten

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Op dinsdag 10 april 2018 14:37 schreef nixxx het volgende:
De Amerikanen noemden het collateral damage en iedereen had zoiets van dat hoort erbij. Maar dood is dood, maakt niet uit of het opzettelijk of per ongeluk is, of met sarin of een smartbomb.
Als je besluit een land te gaan bombarderen en binnenvalt met troepen dan neem je natuurlijk het risico op burgerdoden. Ofwel, dat is opzet. De enorme puinzooi die er later in Irak is gekomen kun je de Amerikanen niet voor 100% aanrekenen, maar volkomen onschuldig zijn ze ook niet.

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Een dictator heeft onderdrukking nodig, maar vergeleken met de rest van het MO viel Syrië nog een beetje mee. Wie weet had Assad langzaamaan de teugels wat laten vieren als reactie na de eerste onderdrukking van Arabische lente. Misschien ook niet, maar het land was minder puinhoop geworden dan het nu is.

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Als VS en Rusland samen kunnen werken met Assad zou het ook wel mogelijk kunnen zijn om Iraanse invloed terug te dringen. Daar is iedereen, behalve Iran, bij gebaat dan.

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Op dinsdag 10 april 2018 14:50 schreef alilami het volgende:

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"Iedereen" in westerse context misschien?

Klopt, de Amerikaanse regering heeft voor meer ellende gezorgd dan Assad. Zelfs deze maand hebben ze 150 burgers (voornamelijk kinderen) afgeslacht in Kunduz (Afghaanse regering = Amerika = Amerikaanse wapens/training/vliegtuigen/bommen, Afghanistan is bezet), dit krijgt nog geen fractie van de aandacht van de chemische aanval in Syrië.

However, the biggest tale of the deaths of innocent Afghans has unfolded on Monday, April 2, when Afghan claimed air strike has resulted in the killings of over 150 innocent scholars, students and common citizens most of them being children under aging from 6 to 18 years.
https://nation.com.pk/05-(...)and-world-conscience

Ik ben het alleen oneens met jouw conclusie dat NAVO en de Russen de legitieme vertegenwoordigers van de Syrische bevolking, de Syrische rebellen, moeten gaan uitroeien. Zonder steun van Syriërs zouden de rebellenfacties het nooit zo lang hebben uitgehouden.

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SYRIA-ISRAEL BORDER, Golan Heights — Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Syria is going to explode. I know, you have heard that one before, but this time I mean really explode. Because the U.S., British and French attack on Syria to punish its regime for its vile use of chemical weapons — and Russia’s vow to respond — is actually just the second-most dangerous confrontation unfolding in that country.

Even more dangerous is that Israel and Iran, at the exact same time, seem to be heading for a High Noon shootout in Syria over Iran’s attempts to turn Syria into a forward air base against Israel, something Israel is vowing to never let happen. This is not mere speculation. In the past few weeks — for the first time ever — Israel and Iran have begun quietly trading blows directly, not through proxies, in Syria.

And this quiet phase may be about to end.

Israel and Iran are now a hair-trigger away from going to the next level — and if that happens, the U.S. and Russia may find it difficult to stay out.

Let me try to explain what is unfolding from a lookout post on the Syrian-Israel border, where I stood a couple of days ago. To follow along at home, I highly recommend this website, which tracks the multiple interlocking Syrian conflicts in real time and is used by the U.N. observers here on the Golan Heights.

Let’s start with the fact that the latest U.S., British and French cruise missile punishment attack appears to be a one-off operation and the impact will be contained. Russia and Syria have little interest in courting another Western raid and raising the level of involvement in Syria by the three big Western powers. And the three Western powers do not want to get more deeply involved in Syria.

It is the potentially uncontained direct shooting war brewing between Israel and Iran that is much more likely and worrisome, because it may be about to enter round two.

Round one occurred on Feb. 10, when an Iranian drone launched by a Revolutionary Guards Quds Force unit operating out of Syria’s T4 air base, east of Homs in central Syria, was shot down with a missile from an Israeli Apache helicopter that was following it after it penetrated Israeli airspace.

Initial reports were that the Iranian drone was purely on a reconnaissance mission. But the official Israeli Army spokesman, Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis, said Friday that the drone’s flight path and Israel’s “intelligence and operational analysis of the parts of the Iranian unmanned vehicle” indicated that “the aircraft was carrying explosives” and that its mission was “an act of sabotage in Israeli territory.”

I have no ability to independently verify that claim. But the fact that the Israelis are putting it out should raise alarm bells. If it is true, it suggests that the Quds Force — commanded by Iran’s military mastermind Qassem Suleimani — may have been trying to launch an actual military strike on Israel from an air base in Syria, not just reconnaissance.

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“This is the first time we saw Iran do something against Israel — not by proxy,” a senior Israeli military source told me. “This opened a new period.”

It certainly helps to explain why Israeli jets launched a predawn missile raid on the Iranian drone’s T4 home base last Monday. This would have been a huge story — Israel killed seven Iranian Quds Force members, including Col. Mehdi Dehghan, who led the drone unit — but it was largely lost in the global reaction to (and Trump tweets about) President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons two days earlier.

“It was the first time we attacked live Iranian targets — both facilities and people,” said the Israeli military source. And the Iranians not only openly announced their embarrassing losses through the semiofficial Fars news agency — they have played down previous indirect casualties from Israeli strikes in Syria — but then publicly vowed to take revenge.

“The crimes will not remain unanswered,” Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said during a visit to Syria.

Since then, senior Israeli defense officials have let it be known that if the Iranians were to strike back at Israeli targets, Israel may use the opportunity to make a massive counterstrike on Iran’s entire military infrastructure in Syria, where Iran is attempting to establish both a forward air base, as well as a factory for GPS-guided missiles that could hit targets inside Israel with much greater accuracy — inside a 50-meter radius — and deploy them from Syria and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

These defense officials say there is zero chance Israel will make the mistake it made in Lebanon — of letting Hezbollah establish a massive missile threat there — by letting Iran do the same directly in Syria.

Now you can understand why it is such a dangerous situation — even without the U.S., French and British punishment for Assad’s use of chemical weapons.

Iran claims it is setting up bases in Syria to protect it from Israel, but Israel has no designs on Syria; it actually prefers the devil it knows there — Assad — over chaos. And it has not intervened in the civil war there except to prevent the expansion of Iran’s military infrastructure there or to retaliate for rebel or Syrian shells that fell on Israel’s territory.

I understand Iran’s security concerns in the Gulf; it faces a number of hostile, pro-American Sunni Arab powers trying to contain its influence and undermine its Islamic regime. From Iran’s perspective, these are a threat.

But what is Iran doing in Syria?

Tehran’s attempt to build a network of bases and missile factories in Syria — now that it has helped Assad largely crush the uprising against him — appears to be an ego-power play by Iran’s Quds Force leader Suleimani to extend Iran’s grip on key parts of the Sunni Arab world and advance his power struggle with President Hassan Rouhani. Suleimani’s Quds Force now more or less controls — through proxies — four Arab capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad and Sana.

Iran has actually become the biggest “occupying power” in the Arab world today. But Suleimani may be overplaying his hand, especially if he finds himself in a direct confrontation with Israel in Syria, far from Iran, without air cover.

After all, even before this, many average Iranians were publicly asking what in the world is Iran doing spending billions of dollars — which were supposed to go to Iranians as a result of the lifting of sanctions from the Iran nuclear deal — fighting wars in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

That is surely one reason Iran has not retaliated — yet. Suleimani has to think twice about starting a full-scale, direct war with Israel, because of another big story many people have not noticed: Iran’s currency is collapsing back home. Consider this April 12 story on CNBC.com:

The Iranian rial “has plummeted to a record low amid growing economic and political uncertainty, causing a rush to the banks as Iranians desperately try to acquire U.S. dollars with exchanges forced to shut their doors to prevent long and chaotic lines.” The rial has lost one-third of its value just this year, the story noted.

Moreover, Israeli military officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin and Suleimani are no longer natural allies. Putin wants and needs a stable Syria where his puppet Bashar Assad can be in control and Russia can maintain a forward naval and air presence and look like a superpower again — on the cheap. Iran’s President Rouhani probably also prefers a stable Syria, where Assad has consolidated his power and that is not a drain on the Iranian budget. But Suleimani and the Quds Force seem to aspire to greater dominance of the Arab world and putting more pressure on Israel.

Unless Suleimani backs down, you are about to see in Syria an unstoppable force — Iran’s Quds Force — meet an immovable object: Israel.

Fasten your seatbelt.

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Op maandag 16 april 2018 08:23 schreef rockstah het volgende:
De buitenlandpolitiek van Iran de afgelopen jaren is dan ook bijna briljant te noemen. Vijanden en bufferstaten vallen stuk voor stuk voor hun neus om en zij hoeven nauwelijks een vinger uit te steken om hun invloed uit te breiden.

Ik vraag me af of ze het zover kunnen krijgen dat Israël niet meer om ze heen kan, Iran zie ik met hun koele realpolitiek toch liever als bondgenoot van ze dan die waanzinnigen in S-A. Hoewel dat vanuit hun perspectief natuurlijk anders ligt.

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Op maandag 16 april 2018 17:34 schreef rockstah het volgende:
Voor zover ik begreep steunde de bevolking de ingrepen nog wel, zie: https://www.washingtonpos(...)m_term=.e3d8b347095d

Kan inmiddels veranderd zijn natuurlijk. Maar goed. Denk jij dan dat de IRGC op eigen houtje aan de gang is en zich bedreigd voelen door Rouhani? Of zit er een toch een grotere strategie achter.
Ik vind het een beetje raar dat er een "power struggle" aan de gang zou zijn tussen de RG en de president gezien de garde toch een stuk hoger in de hiërarchie lijkt te staan aldaar.

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Op maandag 16 april 2018 18:06 schreef Pietverdriet het volgende:
Hoe komt die Iraanse aanwezigheid zo in Syrië? Rijden ze door noord Irak? Lijkt me sterk, Koerden. Turkije? Lijkt me nog sterker. Vliegen ze?

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Op dinsdag 17 april 2018 19:24 schreef rockstah het volgende:

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Tsja ik zie het niet zo hoor. De rial is al jaar en dag geen reet waard. Punt is dat de meeste landen nog steeds niet staan te springen om zaken te doen met Iran ondanks het nucleair akkoord, hun spullen konden ze toch al niet kopen daar dus wie heeft hier nou echt last van? Het kleine groepje burgerij die nog redelijk goed heeft kunnen boeren misschien. Maar verder? Een groot deel is al blij als ze überhaupt betaald worden voor hun werk.
Daar staat tegenover dat de export en het toerisme er garen bij kunnen spinnen, vooral dat laatste vinden ze belangrijk omdat ze zo hopen om banden en partnerships in Europa op te kunnen bouwen.

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Verder lijkt het huidige revolutionair-democratisch regime vooralsnog te staan als een huis, dat westerse en Arabische media gelijk met de armen beginnen te zwaaien bij het minste of geringste protest is vooral oppertunisme volgens mij. Demonstraties en democratie gaan hand in hand, er is ook zeker een sentiment aanwezig dat zoiets onder de shah überhaupt niet mogelijk was geweest. Dat geeft mensen juist ook hoop en kan het systeem en de samenhang doen versterken.

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Missile strikes against Syrian regime forces in the central province of Hama overnight killed 26 pro-regime fighters, mostly Iranians, a monitor said Monday.

The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights said the fighters had been killed in a raid, “probably” carried out by Israel, on the 47th Brigade base in Hama.

“At least 26 fighters were killed, including four Syrians,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the Britain-based war monitor. “The others are foreign fighters, a vast majority of them Iranians.”

“Given the nature of the target, it is likely to have been an Israeli strike,” he said, adding that strikes also hit an air base in nearby Aleppo province where surface-to-surface missiles were stored.

State media reported overnight that “enemy missiles” had struck government targets in Hama and Aleppo provinces, without mentioning any casualties or who may have been responsible.

There were conflicting reports on the number of casualties: Syrian opposition officials have reportedly said that 18 Iranians, including a senior Revolutionary Guards military official, were killed, according to Israel Radio. Other opposition-linked outlets placed the overall number of fatalities at 38.

While some sources blamed Israel for the strikes, Syrian state-owned news site Tishreen said late Sunday the raids were carried out by United States and British forces. The Western troops launched nine ballistic missiles from military bases in northern Jordan that struck Syrian bases near Aleppo and Hama, the news outlet said on its Facebook page.

Other media outlets claimed the attacks were carried out by aircraft bombers, and Hezbollah-linked sources and other regime outlets attributed the strikes to Israel.

There was no official statement from the US or Britain about the attack. As a rule, the Israeli Air Force does not comment on its activities abroad.

Israel’s Intelligence Minister Israel Katz told Army Radio on Monday morning that he was “not aware” of the latest strikes.

But, he said, “all the violence and instability in Syria is the result of Iran’s attempts to establish a military presence there. Israel will not allow the opening of a northern front in Syria.”

The official SANA news agency reported that some “enemy missiles” targeted the Syrian regime’s military positions in the provinces of Hama and Aleppo, without identifying the attackers.

The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights monitor confirmed the firing of missiles, adding that “Iranian elements” were stationed at two of the targeted bases.

Videos of the blast show a fireball light up the night sky.

The Hama facility was said to house a weapons depot, which accounted for the size and intensity of the blast, which could be seen from kilometers away and reportedly registered on seismographs in the area.

The Orient news outlet noted that the base was known to be the headquarters of Iranian militiamen and had been “heavily involved” in attacks against rebel forces in the area.

Earlier this month, seven Iranian military personnel were killed in an airstrike on Syria’s T4 air base in Homs. Syria, Iran and Russia blamed Israel for that attack. Israel did not confirm or deny it.

Earlier Sunday, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Israel will uphold its right to operate in Syria against any threats, and will not be deterred if Russia supplies the Syrians with advanced air defense systems. He added that Israel will stop at nothing to prevent Iran from using Syrian territory as a base to attack Israel.

“We will maintain freedom of operation in all of Syria,” Liberman said, when asked about Russia equipping Syria with advanced systems.

Israel has repeatedly voiced concerns that, as well as trying to deliver advanced weaponry to the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, Iran has been using the unrest in Syrian as a means to establish forward operating bases that could be used to launch rocket attacks and other military action against Israel.

Israel, Liberman said, “will prevent Iran from establishing a forward base in Syria at any cost.”

Judah Ari Gross contributed to this report.

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At a meeting with Jewish leaders in New York last month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman castigated the Palestinian leadership for rejecting opportunities for peace with Israel for decades, and said they should either start accepting peace proposals or “shut up.”

Citing what it said were multiple sources, Israel’s Channel 10 News on Sunday night quoted what it said were remarks made by the crown prince at the meeting that left those who were present “staggered” by the ferocity of his criticism of the Palestinians.


“For the past 40 years, the Palestinian leadership has missed opportunities again and again, and rejected all the offers it was given,” the Saudi leader reportedly said.

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“It’s about time that the Palestinians accept the offers, and agree to come to the negotiating table — or they should shut up and stop complaining,” he reportedly went on.



Prince Salman also told the US Jewish leaders that “the Palestinian issue is not at the top of the Saudi government’s agenda” and elaborated, “There are much more urgent and more important issues to deal with — such as Iran,” according to the TV report.

Nonetheless, the crown prince reportedly stressed that there would have to substantive progress toward an Israeli-Palestinian accord before the Saudis and other Arab states would deepen their relationships with Israel. “There needs to be significant progress toward an agreement with the Palestinians before it will be possible to advance negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Arab world and Israel,” he was quoted saying.

The TV report dated the meeting to March 27, during the prince’s extensive visit to the US. It did not name those present. The Saudi Embassy said that the crown prince was to have met that week with Jewish leaders, including Rabbi Rick Jacobs, president of the Union for Reform Judaism; Rabbi Steven Wernick, head of the United Synagogue of Conservative Judaism; and Allen Fagin, executive vice president of the Orthodox Union. That meeting, however, which also included Christian leaders, took place on March 28.



The TV report was based on a cable to the Foreign Ministry from an Israeli diplomat in the New York consulate, who was briefed on the meeting by those present, and three other sources who were familiar with the content of the meeting. One of those present told the TV channel that the group was staggered by what the prince had to say, and all but fell off their chairs.

A number of news reports, including by The New York Times and Reuters, have claimed in recent months that the Saudi crown prince has pressured Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to accept a much-anticipated Trump administration peace proposal.

After he met with Jewish and Christian leaders on March 28, the Saudi Embassy in Washington said the meeting “emphasized the common bond among all people, particularly people of faith, which stresses the importance of tolerance, coexistence, and working together for a better future for all of humanity.”

A statement from the embassy added that “the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always, and will continue to champion expanding dialogue, building a better understanding among the faiths, and focusing on the shared humanity of all peoples.”

No specific details of what the faith leaders and crown prince spoke about were released.

In an interview published a few days later, the crown prince recognized Israel’s right to exist and extolled the prospect of future diplomatic relations between his kingdom and the Jewish state.

In an extensive interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, the prince laid out his vision for the future of the Middle East, including the possibility of cooperation with Israel.

Asked whether he believes “the Jewish people have a right to a nation-state in at least part of their ancestral homeland,” he replied: “I believe that each people, anywhere, has a right to live in their peaceful nation. I believe the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to have their own land.”

However, in keeping with the terms of his kingdom’s regional peace proposal, the Saudi crown prince added that an agreement with the Palestinians was a prerequisite to formal relations. “But we have to have a peace agreement to assure the stability for everyone and to have normal relations,” he said.

Did he have “no religious-based objection to the existence of Israel?” he was further asked. To which the crown prince replied: “We have religious concerns about the fate of the holy mosque in Jerusalem and about the rights of the Palestinian people. This is what we have. We don’t have any objection against any other people.”

Asked about anti-Semitism in Saudi Arabia, he said: “Our country doesn’t have a problem with Jews. Our Prophet Muhammad married a Jewish woman. Not just a friend — he married her. Our prophet, his neighbors were Jewish. You will find a lot of Jews in Saudi Arabia coming from America, coming from Europe. There are no problems between Christian and Muslims and Jews. We have problems like you would find anywhere in the world, among some people. But the normal sort of problems.”

Israel and Saudi Arabia have no official relations and the kingdom does not recognize the Jewish state. Israel has hinted at clandestine ties with Saudi Arabia in recent years, stressing the two countries share an interest in countering Iran. The rumors of covert relations have been denied by Saudi officials. Still, a Saudi general visited Jerusalem in 2016 and met with Israeli lawmakers, and Saudi officials have met with Israeli officials on several occasions in public. Saudi Arabia also allowed Air India to fly to and from Tel Aviv via its airspace, last month.

Discussing whether a shared concern over Iran was bringing Israel and Saudi Arabia together, he said: “Israel is a big economy compared to their size and it’s a growing economy, and of course, there are a lot of interests we share with Israel, and if there is peace, there would be a lot of interest between Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and countries like Egypt and Jordan.”

Salman also discussed the threat to the Middle East he said was posed by Iran, even saying that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, “makes Hitler look good.”

“Hitler didn’t do what the supreme leader is trying to do. Hitler tried to conquer Europe. This is bad,” he explained. “But the supreme leader is trying to conquer the world. He believes he owns the world. They are both evil guys. He is the Hitler of the Middle East. In the 1920s and 1930s, no one saw Hitler as a danger. Only a few people. Until it happened. We don’t want to see what happened in Europe happen in the Middle East. We want to stop this through political moves, economic moves, intelligence moves. We want to avoid war.”

Shortly afterwards, Saudi King Salman reaffirmed his nation’s support for the Palestinians in a conversation with US President Donald Trump.

The king “reaffirmed the kingdom’s steadfast position toward the Palestinian issue and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital,” the official Saudi Press Agency said.

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Op maandag 30 april 2018 16:19 schreef Adrie072 het volgende:
Is dit misschien een verkapte poging om 'het volk' in Iran weer op de been te krijgen tegen de machthebbers?
Kan me toch niet voorstellen dat de VS oorlog wil gaan voeren tegen Iran.

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Op maandag 30 april 2018 22:35 schreef Aloulu het volgende:

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Israël moet het zelf uitvechten. Trump heeft te kennen gegeven Israël moreel te steunen in de strijd tegen Iran maar niet militair door bijv lang in Syrië aanwezig te blijven om de Iraanse invloed in te dammen. Dit lees je al weken in Israëlische media (dat Trump dit bij Netanyahu heeft aangegeven) en men neemt het voor wat het is: Israël zal er zelf alles aan doen om te proberen te voorkomen dat Iran Syrië in een tweede Zuid Libanon ontoverd waar het wemelt van Iraanse officieren, raketopslagplaatsen gericht op Israël etc.

De Arabische landen zou ik niet zo serieus nemen. Behalve hevige sympathie zullen die niet militair aan iets deelnemen tegen Iran.

Sowieso slaat Iran alleen via proxys terug. Of aanslagen op Israëlische burgers zoals Israëlische toeristen in Bulgarije.

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Op dinsdag 1 mei 2018 09:35 schreef Aloulu het volgende:

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Israël valt Iran niet makkelijk aan. En Iran reageert nooit vanuit het land zelf. Altijd via proxys. Dat Israël Iran aanvalt is dus niet aan de orde.

Daarnaast zal Amerika Iran weer verder isoleren en sancties weer terug instellen. Dat is de steun die Netanyahu krijgt. Beter dan hiervoor waarbij met die deal Iran van de sancties af zou kunnen komen. Ook zie je dat Trump en de Arabische landen de klacht en druk verleggen van voorheen nucleaire wapenprogramma opzeggen naar tevens het (lange afstand)raketprogramma stoppen plus ongewenste bemoeienis in de regio. Trump heeft aangegeven graag een nieuwe deal te willen en deze twee opties daarin mee op te nemen. De Arabische landen klagen steen en been over deze twee zaken. Maar daar gaat Iran nooit mee akkoord.

Syrië wordt het strijdtoneel. De aanval eergisteren was overduidelijk gezien de explosie een wapenopslagplaats al dan niet met goede raketten.

Voor Israël was het weldegelijk beter als Assads regime gevallen was. Nu moeten ze constant achter de feiten aanlopen om te voorkomen dat Iran Syrië volpompt met raketten etc. Je kan je afvragen hoe lang dat houdbaar is en of er toch niet wat doorheen slipt. Iran is ook vastberaden namelijk en Syrië van Assad eet volledig uit diens hand.

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I’m sure neither side really wants a war. It could be devastating for Israel’s flourishing high-tech economy and for Iran’s already collapsing currency. But Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force seems determined to try to turn Syria into a base from which to pressure Israel, and Israel seems determined to prevent that. And in the past few weeks — for the first time ever — Israel and Iran have begun quietly trading blows directly, not through proxies, in Syria.

They have already gone through two rounds, and Round 3, now pending, could blow Syria sky-high.