Die geloven zelfs dat de plee waar Trump meestal twittert een kapel is, waar je ook met je neef kan trouwen.quote:
Zo grappig dat je niet door hebt dat niet "onze" kant, maar juist "jouw" kant constant de valse beweringen de wereld in slingert.quote:
Het is geen domheid. Eerder een soort zwakte.quote:
dat zal moeilijk worden, in onze vaderlandse politiek wordt "we betreuren het" te pas en te onpas gebruikt om onder een verantwoordelijkheid uit te glippen.quote:
bronquote:How Roy Moore Could Lose Alabama’s Senate Race
The detailed, on-the-record accounts from four women describing Roy Moore touching them in sexual ways or pursuing them when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s seemed like the kind of news that might force the Alabama U.S. Senate candidate to drop out of the Dec. 12 special election.
Moore could have withdrawn out of embarrassment or because he was worried about losing. He is in clear electoral danger: The average of five surveys1 conducted after the allegations became public has Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by only 2 percentage points. And key figures in the national Republican Party are either distancing themselves from Moore or calling on him to leave the race.
But Moore is showing no signs of quitting. And he could still win for a simple reason: Alabama voters really do not like electing Democrats. Local Republican leaders in Alabama are standing by Moore, dismissing what the four women said but also emphasizing that putting a Republican in this seat is absolutely necessary — a message the state’s electorate may heed. It’s difficult — but not impossible — to plot out a Jones victory.
Indeed, if you were looking for a state where a Republican candidate could survive such a huge scandal, it would be hard to pick a better one than Alabama. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976. The last to even reach 40 percent of the vote was Al Gore in 2000. The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Alabama was 1992. A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race period since 2008.
Alabama’s demographics make the Democratic path to victory there extremely difficult. White evangelicals, who overwhelmingly vote for Republicans, make up a much larger share of Alabama residents (about 35 percent) than the U.S. overall (17 percent). About 19 percent of Americans nationally live in what the U.S. Census defines as rural areas (which lean heavily Republican), but 41 percent of Alabama residents do. Adults with at least a college degree, a Democratic-leaning bloc, accounted for just 32 percent of Alabama voters in 2016, compared to 40 percent nationally, according to Census figures.
But it’s not only a Republican-leaning state; Alabama’s electorate is also deeply polarized around both partisan and racial lines. In other words, it has very few swing voters — voters who don’t reliably pick one party or the other and who might be swayed by, for example, the national political environment or what’s in the news. The state’s electorate is about 71 percent white and 26 percent black, with small numbers of other groups (e.g. Asians and Latinos). In 2012, the last time we have reliable figures on how different demographic groups voted in Alabama, Barack Obama won an estimated 94 percent of the black vote, but just 16 percent of the white vote. (He won about 41 percent of the white nationally.) And we doubt his dismal showing among white voters was purely because Obama is black, since Hillary Clinton in 2016 lost by an even larger overall margin in the state than Obama did in 2008 and 2012.
The black electorate in Alabama basically guarantees a Democratic pathway to about 35 percent of vote, but with such an entrenched electorate and so few swing voters, it’s very hard for a Democrat to get into the 40s, let alone win a majority.
So how can Jones, the former federal prosecutor running against Moore, win? Assuming turnout rates among different racial groups in December resemble past elections,2 Jones would need to win about 90 percent of the two-party3 black vote, about 35 percent of the two-party white vote and 70 percent of the nonwhite, nonblack two-party vote. Basically, Jones needs to secure a much, much larger percentage of the white vote than Obama in 2012.
Or, let’s look at his path in geographic terms. First, let’s give Jones the areas Clinton won. In 2016, Clinton won a group of small, rural, heavily black counties in central Alabama that are part of the so-called Black Belt. She also won the counties that include the state’s large cities, Montgomery County (Montgomery) and Jefferson County (Birmingham), the latter of which is majority black. That got her to 34 percent of the overall vote.
Where might the rest of Jones’ vote comes from? It’s usually not wise to compare primary elections with the general, since those are two different electorates. But it’s worth looking at the September GOP primary between Moore and sitting U.S. Sen. Luther Strange. Strange’s voters might be more willing to abandon Moore in the general (or just stay home).
Moore won the primary, but he won somewhat narrowly (by 9 percentage points) in part because he was soundly defeated by Strange (by 17 points) in population-rich Jefferson County. Strange also won one of the counties (Shelby) next to Jefferson and Madison County in the north, home to the growing Huntsville area, where the Marshall Space Flight Center and one on the campuses of the University of Alabama is based. Moore, meanwhile, crushed Strange in non-urbanized areas.
Somewhat similarly, in 2012, Moore won his campaign to become chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court for a second time, but by less than 4 percentage points. His Democratic opponent Bob Vance ran up huge margins in Jefferson County (winning by 26 percentage points) and heavily-black Montgomery County (winning by 42 points). Vance also won the Huntsville area, the Black Belt and Mobile County in the southwest, which is less evangelical and more black than the state as a whole.4
So the path for Jones is probably:
Holding down Moore’s margin in rural counties (where many whites without a college degree live). That or, at a minimum, hoping turnout in these counties is depressed.
Winning by an overwhelming margin in the majority-black counties.
Winning big in the urban areas around Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and Montgomery.
That is not unlike the Democratic formula in many states, particularly in the South. Indeed, the new surveys suggest Jones may be able put this formula together. In a JMC Analytics poll that had Jones ahead of Moore 48 percent to 44 percent overall, the Democrat was winning 40 percent of the two-party white vote and 92 percent of the two-party black vote.
Also, there are signs some Republican voters may simply stay home in December. A Decision Desk HQ poll taken on Thursday (the day that the latest Moore news broke) showed a tied race in part because more than 10 percent of self-identified Republicans said they weren’t voting for either candidate, compared to fewer than 3 percent of self-identified Democrats who didn’t back Jones or Moore.
These first few polls conducted since the Moore news broke could represent just the beginning of his electoral deterioration. Polls taken immediately after Senate candidate Todd Akin used the phrase “legitimate rape” during the 2012 campaign underestimated his eventual slide in the polls compared to later surveys in the Missouri Senate race. Or, Moore might be able to convince Alabama Republicans that a vote for him is a vote against Democrats, the media and cultural elites, and that the women’s allegations and the Washington Post report that contained them are part a political attack against him. That appears to be his strategy in the wake of this controversy.
It would be an upset if Jones won. This is Alabama. But with Moore’s already weak standing and the latest allegations, it wouldn’t be a huge upset.
Ach kom, iedereen eet wel eens pizza. als je de een jaar lang elke dag staatsdiners naar binnen moet werken snak je op geven moment naar pasta of spare ribs.quote:
Hij krijgt toch altijd hamburgers aan geboden op staatsdiners?quote:
Dat is wel een leuke om viraal te laten gaan. Did Donald Trump eat a puppyburger in the Forbidden City?quote: