Hurricane Season 2017 #2: The year after El Nino

quote:

Typhoon "Damrey" to slam into Vietnam with flooding rain, strong winds

Tropical Storm "Damrey," known as Ramil in the Philippines, formed late November 1, 2017, just west of the Philippines as the 23rd named storm of the 2017 Pacific typhoon season. Damrey is expected to strengthen into a typhoon, Category 1 hurricane equivalent, before it slams into southern Vietnam early November 4, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. This storm, although tropical depression at the time, already proved deadly for two people in the Philippines.

As of 06:45 UTC on November 2, the center of Tropical Storm "Damrey" was located about 480 km (300 miles) SW of Manila, Philippines, and 840 km (520 miles) E of NHA Trang, Vietnam.

The system is heading west at 15 km/h (9.3 mph) with maximum wind speed near the center of 74 km/h (46 mph) and central pressure of 996 hPa, according to RSMC Tokyo, the authority for this part of the world.

On the forecast track, Damrey will continue intensifying on its way toward Vietnam and peak with 1-minute winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and central pressure of 975 hPa, just before it makes landfall in southern Vietnam early November 4 (UTC).

Damrey is a dangerous storm, expected to produce heavy rain and damaging winds, potentially leading to more floods and landslides, as it traverses over Vietnam into Cambodia.

"Flooding rain and threat for mudslides will be a more widespread concern with areas from the north-central coast of Vietnam southward to Vũng Tàu at highest risk," AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards said. "These areas can expect 150 - 300 mm (6 - 12 inches) of rain with local amounts over 400 mm (16 inches). The threat for flooding and mudslides will extend into southern Laos and much of Cambodia where rainfall of 75 - 150 mm (3 - 6 inches) will occur."

According to The Manila Times, Damrey (known as Ramil in the Philippines) brought more than 300 mm (12 inches) of rain to parts of the northern Visayas and southern Luzon before it was named, killing at least two people in a landslide. It also caused disruption at several ports and resulted in several flight cancellations at Manila International Airport.

quote:

Dodental door tyfoon Damrey in Vietnam loopt op tot 27

Het dodental als gevolg van de tyfoon die over centraal en zuidelijk Vietnam trok, is zondag gestegen tot ten minste 27. Ook worden nog altijd 22 personen vermist.
Tyfoon Damrey is de twaalfde zware storm die Vietnam dit jaar trof. De tropische storm kwam zaterdag aan land, enkele dagen voordat in de regio een top van het Aziatisch-Pacifisch economisch samenwerkingsverband APEC begint.

De tyfoon had windsnelheden tot 90 kilometer per uur en beschadigde meer dan veertigduizend huizen. Ook werden veel bomen ontworteld en viel in bepaalde gebieden de stroom uit.

Volgens de autoriteiten in het land zijn meer dan 30.000 mensen geëvacueerd vanwege de tyfoon.

quote:

Dodental door tyfoon Damrey in Vietnam loopt op tot 49

Het dodental als gevolg van de tyfoon Damrey in Vietnam is opgelopen tot ten minste 49. Er worden volgens de autoriteiten nog zeker 27 personen vermist.

Tyfoon Damrey, de twaalfde zware tropische storm die Vietnam dit jaar trof, kwam zaterdag aan land. De storm ging gepaard met windsnelheden tot negentig kilometer per uur en beschadigde meer dan tachtigduizend huizen. Ook werden veel bomen ontworteld en viel in bepaalde gebieden de stroom uit.

De meeste slachtoffers vielen in de provincie Khánh Ḥa, aan de Vietnamese kust. Volgens de autoriteiten in het land zijn meer dan 30.000 mensen geëvacueerd vanwege de tyfoon.

Vorige maand vielen door noodweer en overstromingen in het noorden en midden van Vietnam meer dan vijftig doden. De overstromingen in het land in Zuidoost-Azië zijn de ergste in jaren.

Vrijdag begint in Vietnam een top van het Aziatisch-Pacifisch economisch samenwerkingsverband APEC. Daarbij zullen ook de Chinese president Xi Jingping, de Russische president Vladimir Poetin en de Amerikaanse president Donald Trump aanwezig zijn.

2017 Hurricanes and Aerosols Simulation

quote:

How can you see the atmosphere? By tracking what is carried on the wind. Tiny aerosol particles such as smoke, dust, and sea salt are tranpsorted across the globe, making visible weather patterns and other normally invisible physical processes.

This visualization uses data from NASA satellites, combined with mathematical models in a computer simulation allow scientists to study the physical processes in our atmosphere. By following the sea salt that is evaporated from the ocean, you can see the storms of the 2017 hurricane season.

During the same time, large fires in the Pacific Northwest released smoke into the atmosphere. Large weather patterns can transport these particles long distances: in early September, you can see a line of smoke from Oregon and Washington, down the Great Plains, through the South, and across the Atlantic to England.

Dust from the Sahara is also caught in storms sytems and moved from Africa to the Americas. Unlike the sea salt, however, the dust is removed from the center of the storm. The dust particles are absorbed by cloud droplets and then washed out as it rains.

Advances in computing speed allow scientists to include more details of these physical processes in their simulations of how the aerosols interact with the storm systems.

quote:

First cyclone of the season - called Cempaka

The first cyclone of the season has formed in the southern hemisphere and is expected to reach northern Australia soon.

Cyclone Cempaka is currently south of the Indonesian island of Java and forecasters expect it will reach the far western coast of Western Australia.

“Cempaka is embedded in a weak tropical trough which extends to a second tropical low further to its west,” a Bureau of Meteorology spokesman said.

“This second low is forecast to merge with Cempaka and slowly strengthen as it moves in a southerly direction.

“Current forecasts suggest this system may track towards the far western coast of Western Australia at tropical cyclone strength, but is unlikely to make landfall at tropical cyclone intensity.”

Cempaka will be the first tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere for the 2017-18 season.

Katherine has already had a wet November.

A total of 155.8mm has already been recorded against an average 93mm and most of the local rivers are running strongly again.

Tropical cyclone Cempaka was named by the Indonesian meteorological agency.

As well the bureau said a monsoon trough was developing in the southern hemisphere.

The bureau spokesman said Cempaka is embedded in a distinct low-pressure trough in the near-equatorial region of the southern hemisphere, readily seen on recent weather charts.

“The trough in the southern hemisphere is the southern component of the twin near-equatorial trough set up which is apparent either side of the equator. This is a typical transitional weather pattern seen at this of the year when neither a northern or southern hemispheric monsoon flow is prevalent.

“While there are some monsoonal characteristics in this southern hemisphere trough, including some wind flow feeding into it from the northern hemisphere, it is currently a relatively weak feature. However, there are some broadscale factors which may invigorate and strengthen the trough in the coming week.”

“The tropical cyclone activity forecast in the region may assist in dragging any monsoon trough further south, but models currently indicate the monsoon trough is unlikely to initiate monsoon onset for northern Australia in the next week or two.”

quote:

Death toll rises - impact Cyclone Kai-Tak
The death toll in the Philippines caused by heavy rain, floods and landslides produced by Tropical Cyclone "Kai-Tak" (Urduja) rose to 46 on Thursday, December 20, 2017. 28 people are still missing.

Meanwhile, another tropical system has organized into a tropical depression and was named Vinta by PAGASA. Landfall is expected between Caraga - Davao Region on Thursday, December 21) evening to Friday, December 22 morning.

Kai-Tak emerged over the warm waters of South China Sea and is now threatening southern Vietnam, southern Thailand and northern Malaysia with flooding rainfall.

Slow-moving Kai-Tak dropped over 1 000 m (39.4 inches) of rain on parts of Visayas, the Philippines over the past couple of days, causing deadly floods and landslides. The death toll on Thursday rose to 46, up from 42 on Wednesday, while the number of missing dropped from 34 to 28.

Many of missing are feared buried by mud avalanches that struck Biliran, the National Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said. "The retrieval operations are still ongoing but we are not finding anyone alive. We only find dead bodies," Sofronio Dacillo, a disaster monitoring officer said.

The NDRRMC reported that more than 1 million people (244 121 families) from 1 669 barangays were affected by Urduja’s widespread flooding and landslides in MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan), Bicol, Western, Eastern and Central Visayas and Caraga.

Of these affected families, 28 959 families or 100,169 persons have been forced to leave their houses to stay in 381 evacuation centers, while 17 577 families or 47 791 persons are staying with relatives.