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Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:09 schreef aloa het volgende:
Carlos komt dicht in de buurt van Mauritius en Réunion.

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Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:22 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

Vanuit Mauritius kan ik melden dat het hier reuze meevalt. Flink wat regen gehad vannacht en het is erg bewolkt maar van veel regen of wind is nog geen sprake. Dat is jammer want er is een nijpend water tekort op Mauritius (ik denk dat Reunion stiekem ook wel blij is met flink wat regen). Als er iets te melden valt dan laat ik het weten.

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Komt nog meer neerslag bij de komende dagen...

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Op zondag 5 februari 2017 16:40 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

Aloa, ik hoor steeds meer verschillende verhalen over de de koers van Carlos, JTWC heeft weinig vertrouwen omdat de modellen niet overeenstemmen mbt wanneer de cycloon gaat afbuigen richting Madegascar. Ik hoor net dat het vliegveld dicht is en dat morgen de scholen niet zullen openen.... Ik wacht de laatste GFS run maar even af....

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Tropical Cyclone Dineo formed near Bassas
Tropical Cyclone "Dineo" formed near Bassas da India atol in the Mozambique Channel, Southern Indian Ocean on February 13, 2017. This the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2016/17 Southern hemisphere cyclone season. Dineo is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and make landfall over Inhambane, southern Mozambique during the early UTC hours of February 16.

At 15:00 UTC on February 13, Dineo was located approximately 89 km (55 miles) NNW of Europa Island and has tracked SSW at 3.7 km/h (2.3 mph) over the past six hours, JTWC said. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center with deep convective banding wrapping into the partially-exposed center.

At the time, its intensity was assessed at 74 km/h (46 mph) based on surface observations from Europa Island and Advanced SCATterometer image.

Overall, the environment is favorable for intensification with near-radial outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature near 30 °C (86 °F).

After 36 hours, around 03:00 UTC on February 15, Dineo will turn westward to west-northwestward.

Its current forecast track indicates landfall along the east coast of Mozambique around 03:00 UTC on February 16 and dissipation over land during the UTC afternoon of February 18.

There is still uncertainty in the exact location of this potential landfall, with accuracy around 400 km (250 miles), RSMC La Reunion said at 18:00 UTC today.

"A strong and continuous intensification is expected until its possible landfall," they concluded.

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MAPUTO - Tropical storm Dineo has killed seven people in Mozambique since it hit the eastern coast on Wednesday, the government's disaster centre said on Thursday.

The storm, has brought heavy rain and winds of up to 160 km an hour, raising the risk of flooding and crop damage in the impoverished southern African country.

Mozambique's emergency operational centre said in a statement about 130,000 people living in the Inhambane province, 500 km north of the capital Maputo, had been affected by the storm. About 20,000 homes were destroyed by heavy rains and fierce winds.

One of the world's poorest countries and also in the throes of a financial crisis, Mozambique is prone to flooding. It is especially vulnerable after a major drought last year as soils degraded or hardened by dry spells do not easily absorb water.

"The system will pose a great risk for the next 36 to 48 hours, particularly in terms of further exceptionally heavy rainfall and resultant flooding," the South African Weather Service said in a statement.

The Mozambican government said the situation was less severe in Gaza, which has the popular resort town of Xai-Xai as its capital and is near the border with South Africa.

Government said however that it feared flooding in the area due to the torrential downpour.

Experts said the storm should weaken as it moves over land, but that it could still bring heavy rainfall.

Damage could be inflicted on Mozambique's multi-million-dollar macadamia nut industry. Subsistence maize farmers recovering from last year's El Nino-triggered drought are also at risk.

Floods in 2000 and 2001 killed hundreds of people in Mozambique and two cyclones in January 2012 killed 26 and displaced more than 125,000, according to official data.

http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/(...)e-in-mozambique-govt

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Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed in Gulf of Carpentaria
Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.

Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border.
Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.

Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017

Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017

Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017

Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017. Credit JMA/Himawari, BOM

At 03:00 UTC today, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" was located approximately 733 km (455 miles) ESE of Darwin, and has tracked ESE at 5.5 km/h (3.4 mph), according to the JTWC. Maximum sustained winds at 00:00 UTC today were 74 km/h (46 mph). There is a limited opportunity for the system to intensify further in the next 12 hours to 83 km/h (51.8 mph), JTWC said earlier today. However, proximity to the land will hinder further development and the system is expected to fully dissipate over land by 03:00 UTC on February 22.

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Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
De draaiing is inmiddels zichtbaar. Heel veel vocht voor dit systeem.

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Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

Mooie GIF Aloa, van welke site komt die?

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Op donderdag 2 maart 2017 13:28 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Wat is ECMWF toch aan het het doen? Regelrecht richting Madegascar....
Aloa, wanneer denk je wanneer de sturing duidelijker wordt; nadat er een duidelijke kern zichtbaar wordt, zaterdag? worden een interessant aantal dagen in ieder geval.

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:22 schreef aloa het volgende:
HWRF laat het zelfs uitgroeien tot een cat 5.

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:27 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

zoiets?

[ afbeelding ]

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Doet me denken aan Fantala van vorig jaar

WKN / Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:40 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Deze kan wel in de buurt komen...

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

qua kracht of onzekerheid in traject? Ik loop iedere weer site te refreshen in de hoop eindelijk wat goede sturings trajecten van de verschillende modellen te zien. Maar ik denk dat het wachten is op een duidelijk centrum van de storm voordat er iets zinnigs gezegd kan worden. Ik wilde altijd nog een cycloon meemaken maar een CAT5 mag rustig uit de buurt blijven

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Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 09:19 schreef the_butler het volgende:
GFS kapot? Geeft 873 Mbar (Absoluut) aan?

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Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 11:55 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 13:06 schreef the_butler het volgende:

[..]

Laten we hopen dat CMC helemaaal de weg kwijt is. Trouwens wel apart waarom juist CMC zo afwijkt, iemand een reden?

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Op zondag 5 maart 2017 11:36 schreef aloa het volgende:
EC laat op iets langere termijn een ander systeem zien bij Mauritius...

Severe Weather Update: Tropical cyclone Blanche, 6 March 2017

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Cyclone Blanche aims for Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone "Blanche" formed late March 5, 2017 in the Timor Sea and soon crossed the Kimberly coast between Wyndham and Kalamburu, Western Australia as Category 2 system on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. This is the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

As the cyclone formed and strengthened, Bathurst Island recorded 384 mm (15.1 inches), which has smashed the previous daily rainfall total by more than 100 mm (3.9 inches).

Blanche had sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) with wind gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said at 02:00 UTC today (12:30 ACST). It was moving southwest at 18 km/h (11 mph).

The agency said destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h (93 mph) are being experienced between Kalumburu and Wyndham in WA, easing to gales this afternoon (local time) as the system weakens.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h (74 mph) are also being experienced between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA, easing during this evening to below gale force.

Tides will be higher than normal between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA during today. Large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

A Yellow Alert is in effect between Wyndham and Kalumburu and coastal communities, people need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

Blue Alert is in effect between WA/NT Border to Kununurra and people need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

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Enawo made landfall as category 4 : Third strongest ever to hit Madagascar
Intense Tropical Cyclone "Enawo" made landfall between Sambava and Antalaha, Madagascar on March 7, 2017, as Category 4 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is the most powerful tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since Gafilo in March 2004 and the third strongest on record to strike the island. Enawo is predicted to affect approximately 1.4 million people. Another tropical cyclone is brewing to the east of the country and will likely be named over the next 24 hours.

Enawo made landfall at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on March 7 at 14.6 degrees north latitude and 50.2 degrees east longitude, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours.

At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph) making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous.

Category 4 hurricane can have the following effects: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

"Northern Madagascar will experience damaging winds and heavy rainfall into Wednesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nichol said. Even though significant weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther inland, the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina will remain at risk for life-threatening flooding rain and destructive wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) into Wednesday.

The damage caused by floods could potentially affect 8 regions: Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, Sofia, Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Menabe, Vatovavy Fitovinany, and Atsimo Andrefana.

Drought-stricken Madagascar will likely receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week.

nawo is being compared to the last hurricane-strength tropical cyclone Giovanna that made landfall on Madagascar's east coast on February 13, 2012. Giovanna is blamed for 33 deaths along the Madagascar coast, and was the first intense tropical cyclone to impact Madagascar, since Bingiza in February 2011.

Since 1983, Madagascar has been struck by 12 major tropical cyclones. The deadliest was Tropical Cyclone "Gafilo" on March 7, 2004. Gafilo was also a Category 4 storm with 241 km/h (150 mph) winds and was responsible for deaths of 363 people.

According to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters, Enawo is the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere so far in the 2016 - 2017 season, and the first one to exceed Category 1 strength. "It has been an unusually quiet tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post," he noted and added:

"Of most concern are the rains from Enawo, as it is an unusually large and wet storm. The amount of water vapor detected by satellite is near the very high end of what is observed in tropical cyclones—precipitable water values up to 3.0 inches. Recent runs of the HWRF model predict extreme rainfall amounts falling on heavily populated regions of Madagascar, and Enawo has the potential to be a top-three most damaging storm in the island’s history.

Enawo will decay rapidly as it takes a track directly down the length of Madagascar, exposing the entire island to flooding rains. However, the disaster could have been worse—more than half of the rivers in Madagascar have dried up or are flowing at less than 5 percent of their average streamflow, thanks to a two-year El Niño-linked drought. Enawo’s rains will help break the drought, which has caused large-scale crop failures and put over half a million people into acute food insecurity."

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Strongest cyclone in 13 years hits Madagascar
The strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 13 years has made landfall on the northeastern coast of the island nation on Tuesday.

Cyclone Enawo was packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour when it made landfall, with stronger gusts of up to 270 kph and a central pressure of 925 millibars, making it equivalent to a power category 4 hurricane.

The last time Madagascar experienced a storm of this magnitude was in March of 2004 when Cyclone Gafilo made landfall in approximately the same location, claiming 236 lives and destroying over 20,000 homes.

Even though it has been over 24 hours since the storm made landfall between the coastal communities of Farahalana and Antalaha, the amount of rain from the remnants of Enawo is still expected to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides through late week.

With 89 percent of Madagascar's roads being dirt, getting into the hardest hit areas of the north and east will be difficult. Very little information has yet to come out of those regions, but it is expected that there will be widespread power outages from down trees and extensive flood damage.

Reports of casualties and injured were expected to rise in the coming days.

Through Thursday the storm will continue to move south across the island, continue to bring with it heavy rainfall and gusty winds. By Friday, what is left of Enawo will have exited the southern tip of the country and back into the Indian Ocean.

Normally the Indian Ocean sees 4-5 "hurricane strength" cyclones each year. Cyclone Hellen was the last cyclone to make landfall in Madagascar in March, 2014

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Six people killed by Enawo

At least six people have been killed, 7 injured and more than 760 000 affected in nine regions as Enawo, the third strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar, hit the island on March 7, 2017. Towns and cities were flooded, houses, schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure destroyed and thousands of people displaced. Water and power outages are widespread in affected areas. The full extent of the damage is as yet unknown due to poor communication and difficulty reaching affected areas. The death toll is expected to rise.

Slow-moving Enawo hit the country as Category 4 hurricane equivalent at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on Tuesday, March 7, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours.

At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph). By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous. By March 8, Enawo weakened from an “intense” to a “moderate” tropical storm, with an average speed of 80 km/h (50 mph) with peaks of 112 km/h (70 mph).

The tropical cyclone dropped the highest rainfall totals of over 500 mm (almost 20 inches) in the open waters of the Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar.

Madagascar was expected to receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week, which will come as a blessing to some as the country suffers from severe and chronic drought, particularly in the south of the country. More than 850 000 people are severely food insecure.

UNOCHA and the Government of Madagascar reported March 9 that the northeastern Sava region has sustained significant damage to housing and agriculture.

Antalaha port is inaccessible and more than half of the city’s homes have been destroyed, with northern areas particularly affected. Farahalana commune is flooded by Lohoko River, with half of all housing under water. Farms along the famous Vanilla Coast have been hard hit, while rice fields in Antalaha and Sambava are submerged.

Carcasses of migratory birds have washed up on the shores of Fenerive Est in the Analanjirofo region, where more than 10 000 people are displaced. Two school buildings have collapsed, an airport road blocked, and more than 500 houses flooded in the districts of Mananara Nord, Maroantsetra, Vavatenina and Soanierana Ivongo. Flood waters in Maroantsetra have attained a height of four meters (13 feet).

The Malagasy Red Cross reports that evacuations are underway in the flood-affected cities of Brickaville and Toamasina I & II in Antsinanana region.

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Cycloon kost leven aan 38 mensen op Madagaskar

De tropische cycloon Enawo, die dinsdag op Madagaskar aan land kwam, heeft het leven gekost aan 38 mensen, 180 mensen verwond en 53.000 anderen dakloos gemaakt.
Het nationale rampenbureau van Madagascar maakte het slachtoffertal zaterdag bekend, meldt AP. Het is aanzienlijk hoger dan eerdere schattingen, waarin werd gerept over vier doden en tienduizend ontheemden.

Enawo bereikte windsnelheden van meer dan 230 kilometer per uur

Vooral de hoofdstad Antananarivo is zwaar getroffen, zei het rampenbureau. Daar zijn meer dan 32.000 mensen dakloos geraakt.

Volgens het Rode Kruis kunnen tot zevenhonderdduizend mensen negatieve gevolgen ondervinden van de cycloon. Het was de krachtigste storm die landval maakte in Madagaskar sinds 2012, toen meer dan honderd mensen omkwamen door cycloon Giovanna.

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Evacuaties in Nieuw-Zeeland vanwege komst orkaan Cook


Grote delen van de noordoostkust van Nieuw-Zeeland wordt geëvacueerd vanwege de komst van orkaan Cook.

De autoriteiten waarschuwen voor hoge golven, gevaarlijke stormvloed en aardverschuivingen door het slechte weer. De storm kan windsnelheden bereiken tot 150 kilometer per uur. Eén persoon is reeds om het leven gekomen.

In noordelijke gedeeltes van Nieuw-Zeeland is de noodtoestand uitgeroepen. Inwoners in lage gebieden worden opgeroepen om onmiddelijk hun huis te verlaten. Meer dan honderd scholen zijn gesloten. Ook universiteiten hebben uit voorzorg hun lessen geschrapt. Media in het land melden dat sommige regio's last ondervinden van grote stroomstoringen.

Luchtvaartmaatschappij Air New Zealand waarschuwt voor "significante verstoringen" vanwege het weer. Veel vluchten zullen vertraagd worden of geheel worden geannuleerd. Mogelijk wordt ook de Auckland Harbour Bridge gesloten voor het verkeer, een zeer belangrijke verkeersader in het land.

Cook volgt op slechts enkele weken na de schade aangericht door orkaan Debbie.

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Cyclone Cook: New Zealand braces for 'worst storm in decades'

Auckland residents told to cancel Easter plans as the cyclone heads directly for the flood-stricken Bay of Plenty region.

Cyclone Cook is bearing down on New Zealand and is expected to make landfall on Thursday evening, heading directly for the flood-stricken Bay of Plenty region devastated by last week’s Cyclone Debbie.

Two states of emergency have been declared in the North Island east coast districts of Bay of Plenty and Thames-Coromandel, with more districts expected to make that call mid-afternoon when the ferocity of the storm becomes clear.

MetService – whose website crashed on Thursday because of heavy traffic – has warned the approaching storm system is expected to be the worst New Zealand has seen in decades, with forecasters comparing it to 1968’s Cyclone Giselle, which sunk the Wahine ferry, killing 52 people.

MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray said she was concerned New Zealanders weren’t taking the storm threat seriously enough and the approaching cyclone was the worst weather event she had seen in her 12 years as a forecaster.

“This is not an event to be taken lightly. Prepare for loss of power and isolation due to road closures,” she said in a video shared by thousands on social media.

Heavy downpours, gale force winds of 150 kph and storm surges up to five metres are predicted to batter the east coast, where the town of Edgecumbe remains under-water, its 2,000 residents staying with extended family and in maraes and evacuation centres, unable to return to their flooded homes.

Evacuations of low-lying areas on the east coast of the North Island are under way, with power outages, fallen trees and roofs lifting off homes possible, according to the MetService, as well as widespread and “significant” flooding across the entire North Island.

Civil Defence has pleaded with New Zealanders to take the storm “seriously”, prepare emergency supplies for three days and “not take any chances”.

Aucklanders are being advised to cancel their Easter holiday plans and hunker down at home until the storm passes, with Auckland Transport asking people who work in the central city to stay home today, and Auckland University closing at 11am.

The Auckland Harbour Bridge may close if wind gusts increase, and ferries across the harbour are expected to be cancelled.

Volunteers and emergency responders have been working all week to prepare relief supplies for people in the eye of the approaching storm, with significant donations of meat, dry goods and animal feed flowing to the Bay of Plenty from around the North Island, as it braces for its second major weather event in a week.

A month’s worth of rain is expected to fall in the space of a day on the east coast, with the ground already sodden and covered in up to a metre of mud and debris.

Landslides have closed access to the Far North district, with many more slips reported and uncleared around the North Island. The New Zealand Transport Authority has asked Kiwis to cancel all non-essential travel and avoid driving if at all possible.

Air New Zealand has said major disruptions and delays are expected to all its services country-wide.

Landslides, flooding and possible evacuations are also expected in some parts of the east coast of the south island, although they will be less severe than in the North Island.

Dunedin city council has asked anyone living in low-lying areas to door-knock on their neighbours to check if they are OK, and to sandbag or self-evacuate if they are concerned about flooding risks.

twitter:

NiwaWeather twitterde op woensdag 12-04-2017 om 06:39:10 Our super high-resolution 1.5 km model shows #CycloneCook making landfall just south of Whangamata on Thursday even... https://t.co/fltUSfNiLj reageer retweet

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Op woensdag 19 april 2017 16:30 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Wat is deze...

[ afbeelding ]

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Op woensdag 19 april 2017 16:31 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

[..]

Die vraag wil ik bij dezen graag herhalen, want ik heb werkelijk geen flauw benul waar ik naar kijk behalve dat ik wel zie welk gebied op aarde het is

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Difference Between Tropical And Subtropical Storms

When an area of low pressure forms over waters with sea-surface temperatures of at least 70 degrees, a subtropical low can form. This is due to the core of the storm becoming warm, deriving some of its energy from latent heat, or energy released when water vapor that evaporated from the warm water is condensed into liquid.

A subtropical depression or storm exhibits features of both tropical and non-tropical systems. This includes no cold or warm fronts, a broad wind field and thunderstorms removed some distance from the center.

Subtropical storms also tend to have a large, cloud-free center and a less symmetric wind field. Maximum sustained winds are also much farther from the center, while the strongest winds in a tropical storm are close to the center.

Subtropical cyclones typically are associated with upper-level lows and have colder temperatures aloft, whereas tropical cyclones are completely warm-core and upper-level high-pressure systems overhead help facilitate their intensification.

The NHC still issues advisories and forecasts for subtropical depressions and storms. They are assigned a number or name, just like a tropical depression or storm.

If the subtropical storm remains over warm water, thunderstorms can build close enough to the center of circulation, and latent heat given off aloft from the thunderstorms can warm the air enough to make the storm a fully tropical storm.

As a result, the strongest winds and rain become closer to the center and, with time, further intensification becomes possible.

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Tropical Storm Arlene forms, poses no threat to land

Tropical Storm Arlene is the first named storm of 2017.

Arlene formed Thursday afternoon in the Atlantic Ocean about 800 miles west of the Azores Islands, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. Thursday advisory.

The storm was no threat to land.

She is a rarity, though.

“Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second one observed in this month during the satellite era,” wrote senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila in a forecast discussion posted on the National Hurricane Center’s website.

“It should be noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible to detect prior to the weather satellite era.”

Arlene’s maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph. The storm was traveling toward the west-northwest at about 25 mph. Tropical storm-force winds were extending out about 105 miles from the storm’s center, the hurricane center said.

Arlene’s lifespan was expected to be short, with the storm expected to dissipate on Friday.

On Monday, the hurricane center said it was monitoring a patch of rough weather in the Central Atlantic that was expected to have a low chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone.

On Wednesday it became a subtropical depression. By Thursday morning it was a tropical depression. Then, on Thursday afternoon, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene.

Rare subtropical depression forms in the Atlantic
Rare subtropical depression forms in the Atlantic
Avila was candid, and said the development was surprising.

“I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career,” Avila wrote in the discussion. “Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical storm.”

Although it’s not the Atlantic hurricane season yet, forecasters always warn that tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes don’t pay attention to calendars. Such storms can happen anytime, they warn.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

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Cyclone Donna: Immediate storm threat to Vanuatu, possible rain threat to NZ next week

Tropical Cyclone Donna formed east of Vanuatu Wednesday night and was Thursday morning (NZT) upgraded to a Category 2 cyclone, likely to reach Severe Category 3 status by Friday morning.

Donna poses a serious threat to Vanuatu with the tracking likely to impact much of the nation as the storm intensifies, bringing flooding rains, damaging winds and damaging storm surges.

Donna may well be a Severe Cat 3 storm as it tracks over Vanuatu over the next few days.

At this stage Donna isn't likely to impact Fiji to the east or Australia to the west. New Caledonia may get some rain and large seas.

The Tropical Cyclone may also be short lived - possibly only lasting until just after the weekend when it falls apart as it drifts south towards the north of New Zealand and it's later next week that Donna may help shift tropical moisture down to New Zealand.

Donna has formed outside the cyclone season which ended on Sunday, April 30th. WeatherWatch.co.nz said back in March the set up this year meant the season was likely to extend into May, possibly even into winter.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan says the modelling is still suggesting New Zealand may have flooding rains next week. "What we're seeing is a low in the Tasman working in conjunction with the remnants of Donna. A storm is not expected in New Zealand at this stage, but a period of heavy rain is looking increasingly possible and could be slow moving and intense enough to cause problems".

However it's too early to lock in if it will be enough of a threat to prompt rain warnings. "The global modelling from various sources suggests New Zealand is a target for heavy rain, but the modeling has also shown uncertainty about the timing and duration of the rain. This is the critical part to work out if this is just a one off fairly-nothing burst of rain, or a more prolonged serious event. We'll have a better idea by the end of the weekend" says Mr Duncan.

Donna is one to monitor due to the forecast set up next week which may see blocking high pressure on either side of New Zealand, possibly helping to funnel and focus this tropical moisture-rich air over the Upper North Island in particular. Following on from three significant flood events in the past two months authorities will already be closely monitoring this possible event

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Tropical Cyclone Donna becomes Category 5 storm, worst May storm on record in South Pacific

Cyclone Donna is now the worst-ever tropical storm to hit the South Pacific in May after reaching Category 5 this morning.

Weatherwatch.co.nz said according to CNN's Severe Weather Team Donna now had sustained winds of 215km/h gusting up to a ferocious 260km/h, making it the strongest May cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.

It eclipses Tropical Cyclone Nadu which struck in 1986.

New Caledonia is next in Donna's firing line as the vicious storm heads south but it's still not clear if it will bring havoc to our shores.

The Fiji MetService is yet to officially confirm any change in storm category. New Zealand's MetService says the Fijian weather agency is responsible for the cyclone and there is no expectation the storm will be upgraded in the its next update due around 1pm.

As Donna ramps up, forecasters are closely watching its projected path across the Pacific.

While it's expected to weaken as it moves down towards New Zealand both MetService and Weatherwatch.co.nz say it's unlikely there will be a direct hit.

But there was an outside chance of it colliding with a spell of bad weather from Australia due to hit the country late on Thursday.

Even if it passed by it was also likely to cause big swells and bring rain to parts of the country.

Forecasters say it won't be until midweek that they'll have the best idea of when, or if, Donna will pose any major problems.

Donna is currently buffeting Vanuatu where entire villages in the northern Torres group have sought shelter in caves. Elsewhere parts of Vanuatu's capital Port Vila have been submerged after heavy rain flooded low-lying areas.

Roofs have been lifted and buildings destroyed as Donna carves a trail of destruction across islands in the Torba province. Authorities are warning residents across central Vanuatu islands to get ready to go to shelter.

Weatherwatch.co.nz said after a "bouncy" tracking at the end of last week the tropical cyclone had finally turned south after waiting for the fine weather parked over New Zealand to leave.

Donna is expected to track past Noumea early Wednesday morning.

The cyclone would likely weaken once it left New Caledonia but could link up with a low crossing the country and bring incredibly heavy downpours.

There was also a chance the remnants of Donna could develop into a new low pressure system east of the North Island and deepen further.

MetService says Donna poses no immediate risk to New Zealand.

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Op maandag 8 mei 2017 10:21 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

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Op maandag 8 mei 2017 19:29 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Cat 5 volgens de Australische schaal dan denk ik?

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Donna becomes strongest May cyclone ever to hit southern hemisphere

During the afternoon UTC hours of May 7, 2017, Tropical Cyclone "Donna" became the strongest May cyclone ever to hit the southern hemisphere. Donna peaked at 118.7 knots (220 km/h / 136 mph) at 19:32 UTC on May 7, before it started weakening. Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department reported estimated gusts close to the center reached as high as 300 km/h (186 mph).

At 12:00 UTC on May 8, Severe Tropical Cyclone "Donna" had maximum sustained winds of 203 km/h (126 mph) close to the center, according to the RSMC Nadi, Fiji, the authority for this part of the world. This placed Donna on the upper edge of Category 3 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

At the time, the cyclone was located just 15 km (9.3 miles) north of the northern tip of Lifou Island (population ~10 000), New Caledonia, moving south-southeast at 13 km/h (8 mph) with an estimated central pressure of 935 hPa. Its center has just passed (~12:00 UTC) near or over Ouvea Island (population ~3 400), New Caledonia. Both Lifou Island and Ouvea belong the New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands Province. Damage reports from these islands are not available at the time.

Before it hit the Loyalty Islands, Donna wreaked havoc on Vanuatu, forcing people to hide in evacuation centers, strong houses, and caves. Currently available damage reports mention Torba Province as the most affected area. A significant number of houses were totally destroyed and the majority of houses damaged

Tropical Cyclone Donna becomes the strongest May cyclone ever to hit southern hemisphere - May 2017

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Tropical Cyclone Ella aims for Fiji
The Fiji Meteorological Service said the cyclone was 480km northeast of Vanua Belavu, the third-largest island in Fiji's Lau archipelago, at 6pm on Wednesday and was moving west southwest towards Fiji at 12km/h.

In a warning issued at 8pm, the Metservice said a tropical cyclone alert remained in force for Lau and the Lamaiviti group, Vanua Levu, Tavenui and nearby smaller islands.

It said people in those areas could expect strong southeasterly winds with average speeds of 45 km/h gusting to 80km/h, which were predicted to increase further to damaging gale force winds of 85km/h to 110km/h from Thursday evening.

For the rest of Fiji, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds were predicted to strengthen with gusts increasing to 80km/h on Friday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were also forecast with showers becoming frequent and heavy.

Fiji's Chief of Operations Rusiate Tudravu told FBC News people needed to take the necessary precautions for heavy rain and flash flooding in low lying areas.

People in Tonga's northernmost island group, the Niuas, were also preparing for Cyclone Ella.

The country's National Emergency Management Office director Leveni 'Aho said emergency services were on standby there, where up to 700 people live.

He said locals were preparing for tonight, when the storm would be at its closest.

"Get their fuel and batteries and radio and things like that. The normal things we do in preparation for cyclones."

There were no reports of damage yet, he said.

In Samoa, a heavy rain warning was in effect on Wednesday after the country's weather authorities warned flooding was possible in vulnerable areas.

A Samoan Disaster Management Office spokesperson said landslides were possible and people living on land that could be affected should consider moving to safer areas.

Meanwhile, as Cyclone Donna passed New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands further east than forecast, alerts were lifted and many schools had reopened.

twitter:

breakingweather twitterde op woensdag 10-05-2017 om 13:14:58 #Adrian became the earliest tropical storm on record in the east Pacific late last night: https://t.co/5LnIPqFZR0 https://t.co/RGHkH1YFhf reageer retweet

twitter:

wunderground twitterde op vrijdag 02-06-2017 om 22:00:09 Tropical Development Ahead? Gulf Coast Heavy Rain Threat, Regardless, Including Drought-Suffering Florida… https://t.co/7HsNppCzk6 reageer retweet

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Op zondag 11 juni 2017 14:56 schreef aloa het volgende:
Lange termijn laat veel onrust zien boven de Golf van Mexico. Meerdere modellen laten dit zien.

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Op dinsdag 13 juni 2017 11:36 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Zit dit er nog steeds in?

twitter:

NHC_Atlantic twitterde op donderdag 15-06-2017 om 13:52:53 There is a medium chance of a tropical cyclone forming over the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Details:… https://t.co/r17w8YgUFJ reageer retweet

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Never mind the name: PTC 3 poses a very real threat

The slow-moving system now known as PTC 3 could dump 10” to 20” of rain on parts of the central Gulf Coast this week. Models do not indicate that PTC 3 is likely to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Even if it does become Cindy, its sustained winds may never top 50 mph. However, a system like this doesn’t need to reach tropical storm status in order to cause major havoc. This became clear with last year’s “no-name” floods in Louisiana—the nation’s worst disaster of 2016, with more than $10 billion in damage.

Coastal and near-coastal residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle need to be especially watchful of this system. Models have come into somewhat closer agreement on a track toward the north-northwest, toward a weakness in the upper-level flow over the eastern U.S., followed by a slower motion as the steering currents weaken. At that point, the track forecast for PTC 3 becomes more uncertain: it may move around the periphery of a weak upper low in the western Gulf, which could keep it moving close to the Louisiana coast for a prolonged period. The GFS model (see Figure 4 above) has consistently called for one or more pockets of rainfall on the order of 10” to 20” near or to the east of PTC 3’s track.

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A serious rain/flood threat for the central Gulf Coast
The much bigger tropical concern in the Atlantic is from a system that hasn’t yet become a depression. Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 were launched on Monday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Pearl River, and a tropical storm watch from west of Intracoastal City to High Island, Texas (see Figure 3 below). Although the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts are not included in the watch, residents there should be aware of the potential for extremely heavy rain even if the potential tropical storm remains well to the west.

(Procedural note: NHC's new Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, which debuted on Sunday, provide more detailed guidance on systems that are not yet at depression strength but that have a chance of intensifying and bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Potential tropical cyclones will be assigned numbers as part of the same chronological list that includes tropical depressions. See the related NHC document for more on this new product.)

At 5:00 pm EDT Monday, the poorly structured center of circulation associated with PTC 3 was located over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, about 300 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Showers and thunderstorms (convection) were blossoming on Monday afternoon across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low, as shown in the satellite image at top. Nearly all of the convection was east of the circulation; this is a common feature of early-season tropical cyclones in the eastern Gulf.

NHC’s official outlook for PTC3 calls for it to become a tropical storm by Tuesday evening, in which case it would be named Cindy. Having two simultaneous tropical storms in June would be very unusual, though not unprecedented. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the Atlantic has seen at least two simultaneous tropical storms in June three times during the 20th century: in 1909, 1959, and 1968.

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Gulf Coast states were in for a third day of rough weather as Tropical Storm Cindy sloshed ashore early Thursday in southwestern Louisiana.

Already blamed for one death in Alabama, Cindy was expected to keep churning seas and spin off bands of severe weather from eastern Texas to northwestern Florida.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds had decreased to near 40 mph (64 kph) Thursday morning with additional weakening expected, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.]Cindy sloshes ashore in Louisiana[/url]
Gulf Coast states were in for a third day of rough weather as Tropical Storm Cindy sloshed ashore early Thursday in southwestern Louisiana.

Already blamed for one death in Alabama, Cindy was expected to keep churning seas and spin off bands of severe weather from eastern Texas to northwestern Florida.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds had decreased to near 40 mph (64 kph) Thursday morning with additional weakening expected, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

A boy on an Alabama beach was struck and killed Wednesday by a log washed ashore by the storm. Baldwin County Sheriff’s Capt. Stephen Arthur said witnesses reported the 10-year-old boy from Missouri was standing outside a condominium in Fort Morgan when the log, carried in by a large wave, struck him. Arthur said the youth was vacationing with his family from the St. Louis area and that relatives and emergency workers tried to revive him. He wasn’t immediately identified.

It was the first known fatality from Cindy. Otherwise, the storm was blamed for widespread coastal highway flooding, rough seas and scattered reports of power outages and building damage caused by high winds. There were numerous reports of waterspouts and short-lived tornadoes spawned by the storm.

National Weather Service forecasters estimated the storm had dumped anywhere from 2 to 10 inches (50 to 250 millimeters) of rain on various spots along the Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle as of Wednesday. And more rain was on the way.

Alek Krautmann of the National Weather Service in Slidell, Louisiana, said Thursday’s pattern would likely be much like Wednesday’s: Bands of intermittent, sometimes heavy rain spinning onto the coast.

In Gulfport, Mississippi, Kathleen Bertucci said heavy rainfall Wednesday sent about 10 inches of water into her business, Top Shop, which sells and installs granite countertops.

“It’s pretty disgusting, but I don’t have flood insurance because they took me out of the flood zone,” said Bertucci, whose store is near a bayou. “We’re just trying to clean everything up and hope it doesn’t happen again.”

In nearby Biloxi, a waterspout moved ashore Wednesday morning. Harrison County Emergency Management Director Rupert Lacy said there were no injuries but fences, trees and power lines were damaged.

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After dumping up to a foot of rain in Mississippi, Tropical Depression Cindy continued to bring heavy rains along its path on Friday morning as it slogged north-northeast at 14 mph over Arkansas. The 5 am EDT advisory from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center gave Cindy top winds of 20 mph, and predicted that the storm would slowly weaken and turn more to the northeast on Friday night, entering Western Tennessee and Central Kentucky. The main threat from the storm is heavy rain, particularly over Louisiana and Southeast Arkansas, where 2 – 4” of additional rain may cause flash flooding.

Cindy made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border at approximately 4 am EDT Thursday, June 22, as a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is being blamed for one death, a 10-year-old boy who died of injuries suffered when Cindy's storm surge washed a large log onto the shore and struck him, according to the AP. On Thursday, the storm spawned an EF2 tornado that left damage in areas southwest of Birmingham, Alabama, and injured at least four people.

https://www.wunderground.(...)ogs-through-arkansas

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Friday marks the end of a record-calm year for tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. A cyclone “year” extends from July 1 to June 30 south of the equator (this is because cyclones peak in the warm season, which straddles adjacent calendar years in the Southern Hemisphere). For the 2016-17 year, this entire half of the world racked up just 45% of the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) that it sees in a typical year, based on the climatological period 1981-2010. ACE incorporates a tropical cyclone’s lifespan as well as its peak winds.

“It's pretty remarkable that an entire hemisphere can have less than half of their normal ACE in a season,” noted Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) in an email. The previous record-low Southern Hemisphere ACE for a July-to-June year was 54% of average, in 2008-09.

The large-scale rising motion needed for sustained tropical cyclone action was often in the wrong place during the southern summer of 2016-17. The strongest areas of rising motion across the southern tropics and subtropics were located over land, across southern Africa and western Australia. Meanwhile, downward motion predominated at these latitudes across the South Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans, where most of the Southern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclones develop. “A good way to kill a tropical cyclone season is to have upward motion over land!” noted Klotzbach.

Below are the Southern Hemisphere stats for 2016-17, together with the numbers recorded in a typical year. The data comes from Klotzbach’s real-time roundup page for global tropical cyclone activity.

https://www.wunderground.(...)ar-tropical-cyclones

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Op maandag 10 juli 2017 11:08 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Gaat om dit systeem?

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Don
A Tropical Storm Warning is up for the island of Grenada, and Tropical Storm Watches are posted for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia as Tropical Storm Don cruises west at 17 mph towards the Lesser Antilles. On Monday afternoon, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a tight closed circulation and surface winds of 40 mph, prompting the National Hurricane Center to begin issuing advisories for the fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. By 8 pm EDT Monday, these winds were up to 45 mph.

On Monday evening, Don was enjoying light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28.5°C (83°F)--about 1°F above the seasonal norm. However, development was being slowed by dry air, thanks to a presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) just to the north. The relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was a marginal 65%. Satellite images showed that Don was small storm, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms.

Forecast for Don
Don will continue to move west to west-northwest at 15 – 20 mph through Wednesday, which will bring the core of the storm over the southern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Dry air will continue to interfere with development, and the 18Z Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere would drop to 55 – 60% by Wednesday. With wind shear expected to remain low to moderate through Wednesday, there is the potential that Don could strengthen to have top winds in the 55 – 60 mph range as it moves through the Lesser Antilles. On Thursday, when Don will be in the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will rise to a high 25 knots, and the 70 members of the 12Z Monday European and GFS model forecasts predict that Don will weaken and meet its demise by Friday. However, Don could potentially affect the ABC Islands and make landfall in northwestern Venezuela late in the week before dying.

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Op vrijdag 28 juli 2017 09:21 schreef aloa het volgende:
Nesat op weg naar Taiwan.

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Noru grinds across Japan
Even though its top sustained winds fell below typhoon strength on Monday, long-lived Tropical Storm Noru will make its presence known across southwest and central Japan over the next couple of days. Noru made landfall south of Osaka as a minimal-strength typhoon (the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane) at around 1:00 am EDT Monday (3 pm local time), as reported by weather.com.

As it continues inland, Noru will drop heavy rains across large parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu islands. Much of Honshu can expect 2” – 4”, with much heavier amounts of up to 12” at higher elevations. Three-day rainfall topped 680 mm (26.77”) at Naze, a station in the Satsunan Islands of far southern Japan.

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Location: 20.2°N 93.4°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: 75 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

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New African tropical wave 91L may develop
A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early Sunday was designated Invest 91L by NHC, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Much like its predecessor (the wave that became Gert), 91L is starting out as a complex, elongated system. The wave, located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday evening, may merge with a separate area of low pressure a few hundred miles to its west by Tuesday. Alternatively, the two areas of low pressure may remain separate entities, with one or both of them developing into tropical depressions. All three of our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—predicted in their 12Z Sunday runs that 91L would develop into a tropical depression this week, and potentially move into or north of the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Friday. However, the forecast is a very complex one, and we should not put much stock in the track and intensity forecasts until we see how the two areas of low pressure end up interacting.

Conditions appear quite favorable for development through at least Thursday. The atmosphere surrounding 91L, and downstream of it, is consistently moist (mid-level relative humidity of 65 – 70%). The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is far enough north that it should not pose any immediate issues for 91L. Wind shear along 91L’s path is predicted to be mostly light (less than 10 knots) through Thursday, and sea surface temperatures will be 27-28°C (82-84°F), about 0.5°C to 1°C above average for this time of year. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8:00 pm EDT Sunday, August 13, 2017, the National Hurricane Center gave 91L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively.

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Op vrijdag 18 augustus 2017 09:39 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Laatste Euro...

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Tropical Storm Harvey lashes Windward Islands
Tropical Storm "Harvey" formed 21:00 UTC, August 17, 2017 east of the Windward Islands in the North Atlantic Ocean as the 8th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Harvey is expected to move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday, August 18, 2017. Rains produced by this storm could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

"On the current forecast track, Harvey's center is expected to pass near or over Barbados early (approximately 08:00 AST, 12:00 UTC) Friday morning," the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) said 06:00 UTC (02:00 AST) today.

"Weather conditions continue to deteriorate as the center of Harvey approaches Barbados. Pockets of moderate to heavy showers and frequent thunderstorms are affecting Barbados and will continue to do so during the early part of today."

Some rainfall stations across the island have already observed accumulations of 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) and a further 50 to 75 mm (2 to 3 inches) are possible.

In addition, large easterly swells of at least 2.5 to 3.0 m (8 to 10 feet) are forecasted to accompany the system. Thus, a Small-Craft Warning is in effect.

Residents are urged to remain on the alert and take all necessary precautions.

"Some flash-flooding has already been reported," the agency reported 03:00 UTC (23:00 AST, August 17). "Thus a Flood-Warning has been issued and will remain in effect until 12:00 AST (noon) on Friday, August 18. Rainfall accumulations of at least 75 - 125 mm (3 - 5 inches) are possible. Residents in flood prone areas should continue to exercise caution and remain on the alert."

St. Vincent and the Grenadines NEMO said the center of Harvey is expected to pass over St. Vincent and the Grenadines between 12:00 and 14:00 AST Friday (16:00 and 18:00 UTC). "Most of the convection/rainfall is around the center of the storm. We, therefore, expect the effects of Harvey to be with us all day tomorrow [Friday] into the late afternoon."

"We are in for a long night and day tomorrow. Be prepared and take this storm seriously," it warned.

The Argyle International Airport was closed at approximately 20:00 AST, Thursday, August 17. "Based on the current forecast the airport is unlikely to open during the day on Friday, however, persons traveling are asked to check with their respective airlines and listen to the radio for any changes," NEMO said.

NEMO previously asked all Shelter Managers to activate their shelter management teams and have the shelters opened by 20:00 AST, Thursday, to receive persons who need shelter.

All business and non-essential services for St. Vincent and the Grenadines are closed.

twitter:

EricBlake12 twitterde op maandag 21-08-2017 om 04:51:36 The east Pacific has some of the most amazing rapid intensification cases- #Kenneth wasn't even a #hurricane 24h ag… https://t.co/oBAOEyF9Hp reageer retweet

twitter:

breakingweather twitterde op maandag 28-08-2017 om 10:05:22 The development of Tropical Storm Irma looms off the Southeast coast: https://t.co/64kdEG0bxy https://t.co/rYELO2pxq1 reageer retweet

twitter:

BNONews twitterde op woensdag 30-08-2017 om 14:55:20 Tropical Storm Irma forms in the Atlantic west of the Cabo Verde Islands; potential impact on the Caribbean or the U.S. not yet known - NHC reageer retweet

quote:

Op woensdag 30 augustus 2017 14:57 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

twitter:

BNONews twitterde op woensdag 30-08-2017 om 14:55:20 Tropical Storm Irma forms in the Atlantic west of the Cabo Verde Islands; potential impact on the Caribbean or the U.S. not yet known - NHC reageer retweet

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Op maandag 28 augustus 2017 10:31 schreef aloa het volgende:
Irma kan nog voor overlast zorgen langs de oostkust. En daarna Jose vanaf de Afrikaanse kust...

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AccuWeather predicts Hurricane Harvey to be the most costly natural disaster in US history

August 30, 2017, 6:22:37 PM EDT
AccuWeather predicts Hurricane Harvey, which has wreaked havoc in Texas, to be the most costly natural disaster in United States history.
Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather, and sometimes called the “father of commercial meteorology” stated, “This is the costliest and worst natural disaster in American history. AccuWeather has raised its estimate of the impact to the nation’s gross national produce, or GDP, to $190 billion or a full one percent, which exceeds totals of economic impact of Katrina and Sandy combined. The GDP is $19 trillion currently. Business leaders and the Federal Reserve, major banks, insurance companies, etc. should begin to factor in the negative impact this catastrophe will have on business, corporate earnings and employment. The disaster is just beginning in certain areas. Parts of Houston, the United States' fourth largest city will be uninhabitable for weeks and possibly months due to water damage, mold, disease-ridden water and all that will follow this 1,000-year flood.”

Due to the negative impact to the national economy, we believe the Federal Reserve will postpone the next increase in interest rates, Myers added.
Catastrophic flooding will continue in Houston, where the rain has ended, and in Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, even after the rain comes to an end.
“The meteorologist forecasting community as a whole did a very good job in warning people about this storm. Public officials were slow, in some cases, to react or to know what to do, which affected too many people and caused the loss of property and damage and destruction. This was unfortunate because when a natural disaster threatens, minutes and hours count and preparation and risk avoidance is imperative. While AccuWeather forecasts were a few hours ahead of the competition in alerting people and companies to the severity of the impacts that were coming. The entire meteorological community did a first rate job, and it’s frustrating that some entities were slow to take action. We are gratified that many people told us because of AccuWeather forecasts they did get to safety and out of harm’s way and many businesses we serve reported they took immediate action to minimize losses,” Myers said.

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Op vrijdag 1 september 2017 10:18 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
50% voor dat andere gebied dat vanaf Afrika komt, Jose komt eraan..

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Op dinsdag 5 september 2017 14:20 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
Gebeurt het vaak dat gebieden boven de Golf van 'gewone' storm uitgroeien tot orkaan? Ik dacht eigenlijk dat het vrijwel altijd boven de oceaan begon.

twitter:

breakingweather twitterde op dinsdag 05-09-2017 om 17:01:13 BREAKING: Tropical Storm #Jose has formed over the eastern Atlantic Ocean: https://t.co/Oz0A0vrESz https://t.co/J5KJQWFW0Z reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 7 september 2017 12:55 schreef sararaats het volgende:
Waarom hebben orkanen namen?

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Op donderdag 7 september 2017 15:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Eigen topics Katia en Jose

WKN / Orkaan Jose: Nieuwe zorgen voor Sint Maarten?
WKN / Orkaan Katia richting Mexico

quote:

290 miljard schade na Harvey en Irma
De economische schade na de doortocht van orkanen Irma, die sinds gisteren Florida teistert, en Harvey, die zware overstromingen veroorzaakte in Texas, wordt geschat op ongeveer 290 miljard dollar (241 miljard euro), of 1,5 procent van het bbp van de Verenigde Staten. Dat blijkt uit een raming van het commerciële meteorologische bedrijf AccuWeather.

Volgens AccuWeather is Harvey de duurste meteorologische ramp in de geschiedenis van de VS. Het bedrijf raamt de economische schade op 190 miljard dollar en houdt daarbij onder meer rekening met bedrijfsonderbrekingen, hogere werkloosheid gedurende meerdere maanden, schade aan infrastructuur en gebouwen, oogstverliezen en hogere brandstofprijzen.

"De ramingen voor Irma lopen op tot ongeveer 100 miljard dollar", zegt CEO Joel N. Myers. Alles samen gaat het om 1,5 procent van het bbp, wat de verwachte economische groei in de VS tussen midden augustus en het einde van het jaar teniet zou doen.

Orkaan Irma, afgezwakt tot categorie 2, raast intussen nog steeds boven Florida en dreef iets meer oostwaarts dan aanvankelijk voorspeld. De staat aan de Amerikaanse oostkust heeft volgens het nationaal orkaancentrum (NHC) nu te kampen met hevige regenval (tot wel 38 centimeter) en krachtige aanhoudende windsnelheden van 165 kilometer per uur, met windstoten tot 229 kilometer per uur.

Natuurramp
Het NHC waarschuwt dan ook voor stortvloeden en modderstromen in het zog van Irma, die in noordelijke richting langs de oostkust raast. Onder meer in Miami en Key West werd al veel schade gemeld. In de hele staat zaten ook 2 miljoen gezinnen zonder elektriciteit nadat elektriciteitskabels waren gebroken.

Amerikaans president Donald Trump heeft al gezegd Florida te zullen bezoeken zodra dat mogelijk is en prees ook de coördinatie van de rampenbestrijding. Hij erkende Irma ook al als natuurramp. Op vragen van journalisten weigerde hij echter een bedrag op de schade van de orkaan te plakken. "Op dit moment zijn we bezorgd om mensenlevens, niet om de kosten."

Volgens Amerikaanse media werden al meer dan twintig sterfgevallen aan Irma gelinkt, maar een officiële balans is er niet.

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Op dinsdag 12 september 2017 09:30 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
Ik weet dat je deze hebt voor de Atlantic:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

Is er ook een goede vergelijkbare site voor het westen van de Pacific, dus richting Azië? Talim komt er deze dagen aan zie ik, maar een echt goede site om die te volgen heb ik nog niet gevonden.

quote:

Op dinsdag 12 september 2017 09:54 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Weet niet of ze in de OP staan maar ik vermoed dat er daar ook nog een paar staan maar

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
https://www.cyclocane.com/

deze gebruik ik ook wel eens

quote:

Op dinsdag 12 september 2017 10:28 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

[..]

Cyclocane ziet er best handig uit

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Op woensdag 13 september 2017 08:46 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Ja klopt... Japan zal er mee te maken krijgen

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Op woensdag 13 september 2017 11:58 schreef Bronson het volgende:

[..]

Ik ga dit weekend naar Japan. Moet ik mij zorgen maken?

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Op donderdag 14 september 2017 10:34 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Tyfoon Talim begint aan de ruk richting Japan

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Op donderdag 14 september 2017 14:25 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
Zowel binnen 48 uur als binnen 5 dagen op bijna 100%, Norma komt eraan

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Op donderdag 14 september 2017 14:26 schreef heywoodu het volgende:
En aan de andere kant nog 40 en 60 procent binnen vijf dagen. Lee en Maria als ik me niet vergis? Ik dacht dat Lee er al was geweest, maar schijnbaar niet, anders worden het mogelijk Maria en Nate

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Op donderdag 14 september 2017 22:13 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Ah recht op st maarten af

twitter:

ClaireDarbinyan twitterde op vrijdag 15-09-2017 om 08:34:29 TY #Doksuri has just made landfall in #Vietnam as a Category 3 storm; the strongest storm to make landfall there si… https://t.co/oN9DbKnFAj reageer retweet

quote:

Op donderdag 21 september 2017 15:38 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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Zit nog een tropical wave op de Atlantic en er komt er nog eentje van Afrika?

quote:

Op donderdag 21 september 2017 16:42 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

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Die direct rechts van Maria is toch het stoffelijk overschot van Lee die toch niet meer tot leven lijkt te komen?

quote:

Op donderdag 21 september 2017 16:42 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

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Die direct rechts van Maria is toch het stoffelijk overschot van Lee die toch niet meer tot leven lijkt te komen?

quote:

Op vrijdag 22 september 2017 19:05 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:

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Lee lijkt over te gaan in 'Nate' (nu nog invest 98L genoemd)