quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:09 schreef aloa het volgende:Carlos komt dicht in de buurt van Mauritius en Rťunion.
quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:22 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Vanuit Mauritius kan ik melden dat het hier reuze meevalt. Flink wat regen gehad vannacht en het is erg bewolkt maar van veel regen of wind is nog geen sprake. Dat is jammer want er is een nijpend water tekort op Mauritius (ik denk dat Reunion stiekem ook wel blij is met flink wat regen). Als er iets te melden valt dan laat ik het weten.
quote:Komt nog meer neerslag bij de komende dagen...
quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 16:40 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Aloa, ik hoor steeds meer verschillende verhalen over de de koers van Carlos, JTWC heeft weinig vertrouwen omdat de modellen niet overeenstemmen mbt wanneer de cycloon gaat afbuigen richting Madegascar. Ik hoor net dat het vliegveld dicht is en dat morgen de scholen niet zullen openen.... Ik wacht de laatste GFS run maar even af....
quote:Tropical Cyclone Dineo formed near BassasTropical Cyclone "Dineo" formed near Bassas da India atol in the Mozambique Channel, Southern Indian Ocean on February 13, 2017. This the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2016/17 Southern hemisphere cyclone season. Dineo is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and make landfall over Inhambane, southern Mozambique during the early UTC hours of February 16.At 15:00 UTC on February 13, Dineo was located approximately 89 km (55 miles) NNW of Europa Island and has tracked SSW at 3.7 km/h (2.3 mph) over the past six hours, JTWC said. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center with deep convective banding wrapping into the partially-exposed center.At the time, its intensity was assessed at 74 km/h (46 mph) based on surface observations from Europa Island and Advanced SCATterometer image.Overall, the environment is favorable for intensification with near-radial outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature near 30 įC (86 įF).After 36 hours, around 03:00 UTC on February 15, Dineo will turn westward to west-northwestward. Its current forecast track indicates landfall along the east coast of Mozambique around 03:00 UTC on February 16 and dissipation over land during the UTC afternoon of February 18.There is still uncertainty in the exact location of this potential landfall, with accuracy around 400 km (250 miles), RSMC La Reunion said at 18:00 UTC today."A strong and continuous intensification is expected until its possible landfall," they concluded.
quote:MAPUTO - Tropical storm Dineo has killed seven people in Mozambique since it hit the eastern coast on Wednesday, the government's disaster centre said on Thursday.The storm, has brought heavy rain and winds of up to 160 km an hour, raising the risk of flooding and crop damage in the impoverished southern African country.Mozambique's emergency operational centre said in a statement about 130,000 people living in the Inhambane province, 500 km north of the capital Maputo, had been affected by the storm. About 20,000 homes were destroyed by heavy rains and fierce winds.One of the world's poorest countries and also in the throes of a financial crisis, Mozambique is prone to flooding. It is especially vulnerable after a major drought last year as soils degraded or hardened by dry spells do not easily absorb water."The system will pose a great risk for the next 36 to 48 hours, particularly in terms of further exceptionally heavy rainfall and resultant flooding," the South African Weather Service said in a statement.The Mozambican government said the situation was less severe in Gaza, which has the popular resort town of Xai-Xai as its capital and is near the border with South Africa.Government said however that it feared flooding in the area due to the torrential downpour.Experts said the storm should weaken as it moves over land, but that it could still bring heavy rainfall.Damage could be inflicted on Mozambique's multi-million-dollar macadamia nut industry. Subsistence maize farmers recovering from last year's El Nino-triggered drought are also at risk.Floods in 2000 and 2001 killed hundreds of people in Mozambique and two cyclones in January 2012 killed 26 and displaced more than 125,000, according to official data.http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/(...)e-in-mozambique-govt
quote:Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed in Gulf of CarpentariaTropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border.Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017. Credit JMA/Himawari, BOMAt 03:00 UTC today, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" was located approximately 733 km (455 miles) ESE of Darwin, and has tracked ESE at 5.5 km/h (3.4 mph), according to the JTWC. Maximum sustained winds at 00:00 UTC today were 74 km/h (46 mph). There is a limited opportunity for the system to intensify further in the next 12 hours to 83 km/h (51.8 mph), JTWC said earlier today. However, proximity to the land will hinder further development and the system is expected to fully dissipate over land by 03:00 UTC on February 22.
quote: Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:De draaiing is inmiddels zichtbaar. Heel veel vocht voor dit systeem.
quote: Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Mooie GIF Aloa, van welke site komt die?
quote: Op donderdag 2 maart 2017 13:28 schreef the_butler het volgende:Wat is ECMWF toch aan het het doen? Regelrecht richting Madegascar....Aloa, wanneer denk je wanneer de sturing duidelijker wordt; nadat er een duidelijke kern zichtbaar wordt, zaterdag? worden een interessant aantal dagen in ieder geval.
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:22 schreef aloa het volgende:HWRF laat het zelfs uitgroeien tot een cat 5.
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:27 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]zoiets?[ afbeelding ]
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:Doet me denken aan Fantala van vorig jaar WKN / Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:40 schreef aloa het volgende:[..]Deze kan wel in de buurt komen...
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]qua kracht of onzekerheid in traject? Ik loop iedere weer site te refreshen in de hoop eindelijk wat goede sturings trajecten van de verschillende modellen te zien. Maar ik denk dat het wachten is op een duidelijk centrum van de storm voordat er iets zinnigs gezegd kan worden. Ik wilde altijd nog een cycloon meemaken maar een CAT5 mag rustig uit de buurt blijven
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 09:19 schreef the_butler het volgende:GFS kapot? Geeft 873 Mbar (Absoluut) aan?
quote: Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 11:55 schreef aloa het volgende:
quote: Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 13:06 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Laten we hopen dat CMC helemaaal de weg kwijt is. Trouwens wel apart waarom juist CMC zo afwijkt, iemand een reden?
quote: Op zondag 5 maart 2017 11:36 schreef aloa het volgende:EC laat op iets langere termijn een ander systeem zien bij Mauritius...
quote:Cyclone Blanche aims for Western AustraliaTropical Cyclone "Blanche" formed late March 5, 2017 in the Timor Sea and soon crossed the Kimberly coast between Wyndham and Kalamburu, Western Australia as Category 2 system on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. This is the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. As the cyclone formed and strengthened, Bathurst Island recorded 384 mm (15.1 inches), which has smashed the previous daily rainfall total by more than 100 mm (3.9 inches).Blanche had sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) with wind gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said at 02:00 UTC today (12:30 ACST). It was moving southwest at 18 km/h (11 mph). The agency said destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h (93 mph) are being experienced between Kalumburu and Wyndham in WA, easing to gales this afternoon (local time) as the system weakens.Gales with gusts to 120 km/h (74 mph) are also being experienced between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA, easing during this evening to below gale force.Tides will be higher than normal between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA during today. Large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas.A Yellow Alert is in effect between Wyndham and Kalumburu and coastal communities, people need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.Blue Alert is in effect between WA/NT Border to Kununurra and people need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
quote:Enawo made landfall as category 4 : Third strongest ever to hit MadagascarIntense Tropical Cyclone "Enawo" made landfall between Sambava and Antalaha, Madagascar on March 7, 2017, as Category 4 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is the most powerful tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since Gafilo in March 2004 and the third strongest on record to strike the island. Enawo is predicted to affect approximately 1.4 million people. Another tropical cyclone is brewing to the east of the country and will likely be named over the next 24 hours.Enawo made landfall at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on March 7 at 14.6 degrees north latitude and 50.2 degrees east longitude, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours.At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph) making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous.Category 4 hurricane can have the following effects: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."Northern Madagascar will experience damaging winds and heavy rainfall into Wednesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nichol said. Even though significant weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther inland, the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina will remain at risk for life-threatening flooding rain and destructive wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) into Wednesday.The damage caused by floods could potentially affect 8 regions: Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, Sofia, Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Menabe, Vatovavy Fitovinany, and Atsimo Andrefana.Drought-stricken Madagascar will likely receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week.nawo is being compared to the last hurricane-strength tropical cyclone Giovanna that made landfall on Madagascar's east coast on February 13, 2012. Giovanna is blamed for 33 deaths along the Madagascar coast, and was the first intense tropical cyclone to impact Madagascar, since Bingiza in February 2011.Since 1983, Madagascar has been struck by 12 major tropical cyclones. The deadliest was Tropical Cyclone "Gafilo" on March 7, 2004. Gafilo was also a Category 4 storm with 241 km/h (150 mph) winds and was responsible for deaths of 363 people.According to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters, Enawo is the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere so far in the 2016 - 2017 season, and the first one to exceed Category 1 strength. "It has been an unusually quiet tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post," he noted and added:"Of most concern are the rains from Enawo, as it is an unusually large and wet storm. The amount of water vapor detected by satellite is near the very high end of what is observed in tropical cyclones—precipitable water values up to 3.0 inches. Recent runs of the HWRF model predict extreme rainfall amounts falling on heavily populated regions of Madagascar, and Enawo has the potential to be a top-three most damaging storm in the island’s history.Enawo will decay rapidly as it takes a track directly down the length of Madagascar, exposing the entire island to flooding rains. However, the disaster could have been worse—more than half of the rivers in Madagascar have dried up or are flowing at less than 5 percent of their average streamflow, thanks to a two-year El NiŮo-linked drought. Enawo’s rains will help break the drought, which has caused large-scale crop failures and put over half a million people into acute food insecurity."
quote:Strongest cyclone in 13 years hits MadagascarThe strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 13 years has made landfall on the northeastern coast of the island nation on Tuesday.Cyclone Enawo was packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour when it made landfall, with stronger gusts of up to 270 kph and a central pressure of 925 millibars, making it equivalent to a power category 4 hurricane. The last time Madagascar experienced a storm of this magnitude was in March of 2004 when Cyclone Gafilo made landfall in approximately the same location, claiming 236 lives and destroying over 20,000 homes.Even though it has been over 24 hours since the storm made landfall between the coastal communities of Farahalana and Antalaha, the amount of rain from the remnants of Enawo is still expected to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides through late week.With 89 percent of Madagascar's roads being dirt, getting into the hardest hit areas of the north and east will be difficult. Very little information has yet to come out of those regions, but it is expected that there will be widespread power outages from down trees and extensive flood damage. Reports of casualties and injured were expected to rise in the coming days.Through Thursday the storm will continue to move south across the island, continue to bring with it heavy rainfall and gusty winds. By Friday, what is left of Enawo will have exited the southern tip of the country and back into the Indian Ocean.Normally the Indian Ocean sees 4-5 "hurricane strength" cyclones each year. Cyclone Hellen was the last cyclone to make landfall in Madagascar in March, 2014
quote:Six people killed by EnawoAt least six people have been killed, 7 injured and more than 760 000 affected in nine regions as Enawo, the third strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar, hit the island on March 7, 2017. Towns and cities were flooded, houses, schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure destroyed and thousands of people displaced. Water and power outages are widespread in affected areas. The full extent of the damage is as yet unknown due to poor communication and difficulty reaching affected areas. The death toll is expected to rise.Slow-moving Enawo hit the country as Category 4 hurricane equivalent at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on Tuesday, March 7, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours. At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph). By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous. By March 8, Enawo weakened from an “intense” to a “moderate” tropical storm, with an average speed of 80 km/h (50 mph) with peaks of 112 km/h (70 mph).The tropical cyclone dropped the highest rainfall totals of over 500 mm (almost 20 inches) in the open waters of the Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar.Madagascar was expected to receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week, which will come as a blessing to some as the country suffers from severe and chronic drought, particularly in the south of the country. More than 850 000 people are severely food insecure.UNOCHA and the Government of Madagascar reported March 9 that the northeastern Sava region has sustained significant damage to housing and agriculture.Antalaha port is inaccessible and more than half of the city’s homes have been destroyed, with northern areas particularly affected. Farahalana commune is flooded by Lohoko River, with half of all housing under water. Farms along the famous Vanilla Coast have been hard hit, while rice fields in Antalaha and Sambava are submerged.Carcasses of migratory birds have washed up on the shores of Fenerive Est in the Analanjirofo region, where more than 10 000 people are displaced. Two school buildings have collapsed, an airport road blocked, and more than 500 houses flooded in the districts of Mananara Nord, Maroantsetra, Vavatenina and Soanierana Ivongo. Flood waters in Maroantsetra have attained a height of four meters (13 feet).The Malagasy Red Cross reports that evacuations are underway in the flood-affected cities of Brickaville and Toamasina I & II in Antsinanana region.
quote:Cycloon kost leven aan 38 mensen op Madagaskar De tropische cycloon Enawo, die dinsdag op Madagaskar aan land kwam, heeft het leven gekost aan 38 mensen, 180 mensen verwond en 53.000 anderen dakloos gemaakt.Het nationale rampenbureau van Madagascar maakte het slachtoffertal zaterdag bekend, meldt AP. Het is aanzienlijk hoger dan eerdere schattingen, waarin werd gerept over vier doden en tienduizend ontheemden.Enawo bereikte windsnelheden van meer dan 230 kilometer per uurVooral de hoofdstad Antananarivo is zwaar getroffen, zei het rampenbureau. Daar zijn meer dan 32.000 mensen dakloos geraakt.Volgens het Rode Kruis kunnen tot zevenhonderdduizend mensen negatieve gevolgen ondervinden van de cycloon. Het was de krachtigste storm die landval maakte in Madagaskar sinds 2012, toen meer dan honderd mensen omkwamen door cycloon Giovanna.
quote:Evacuaties in Nieuw-Zeeland vanwege komst orkaan Cook Grote delen van de noordoostkust van Nieuw-Zeeland wordt geŽvacueerd vanwege de komst van orkaan Cook.De autoriteiten waarschuwen voor hoge golven, gevaarlijke stormvloed en aardverschuivingen door het slechte weer. De storm kan windsnelheden bereiken tot 150 kilometer per uur. Eťn persoon is reeds om het leven gekomen.In noordelijke gedeeltes van Nieuw-Zeeland is de noodtoestand uitgeroepen. Inwoners in lage gebieden worden opgeroepen om onmiddelijk hun huis te verlaten. Meer dan honderd scholen zijn gesloten. Ook universiteiten hebben uit voorzorg hun lessen geschrapt. Media in het land melden dat sommige regio's last ondervinden van grote stroomstoringen. Luchtvaartmaatschappij Air New Zealand waarschuwt voor "significante verstoringen" vanwege het weer. Veel vluchten zullen vertraagd worden of geheel worden geannuleerd. Mogelijk wordt ook de Auckland Harbour Bridge gesloten voor het verkeer, een zeer belangrijke verkeersader in het land.Cook volgt op slechts enkele weken na de schade aangericht door orkaan Debbie.
quote:Cyclone Cook: New Zealand braces for 'worst storm in decades'Auckland residents told to cancel Easter plans as the cyclone heads directly for the flood-stricken Bay of Plenty region.Cyclone Cook is bearing down on New Zealand and is expected to make landfall on Thursday evening, heading directly for the flood-stricken Bay of Plenty region devastated by last week’s Cyclone Debbie.Two states of emergency have been declared in the North Island east coast districts of Bay of Plenty and Thames-Coromandel, with more districts expected to make that call mid-afternoon when the ferocity of the storm becomes clear.MetService – whose website crashed on Thursday because of heavy traffic – has warned the approaching storm system is expected to be the worst New Zealand has seen in decades, with forecasters comparing it to 1968’s Cyclone Giselle, which sunk the Wahine ferry, killing 52 people.MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray said she was concerned New Zealanders weren’t taking the storm threat seriously enough and the approaching cyclone was the worst weather event she had seen in her 12 years as a forecaster.“This is not an event to be taken lightly. Prepare for loss of power and isolation due to road closures,” she said in a video shared by thousands on social media.Heavy downpours, gale force winds of 150 kph and storm surges up to five metres are predicted to batter the east coast, where the town of Edgecumbe remains under-water, its 2,000 residents staying with extended family and in maraes and evacuation centres, unable to return to their flooded homes.Evacuations of low-lying areas on the east coast of the North Island are under way, with power outages, fallen trees and roofs lifting off homes possible, according to the MetService, as well as widespread and “significant” flooding across the entire North Island.Civil Defence has pleaded with New Zealanders to take the storm “seriously”, prepare emergency supplies for three days and “not take any chances”.Aucklanders are being advised to cancel their Easter holiday plans and hunker down at home until the storm passes, with Auckland Transport asking people who work in the central city to stay home today, and Auckland University closing at 11am.The Auckland Harbour Bridge may close if wind gusts increase, and ferries across the harbour are expected to be cancelled.Volunteers and emergency responders have been working all week to prepare relief supplies for people in the eye of the approaching storm, with significant donations of meat, dry goods and animal feed flowing to the Bay of Plenty from around the North Island, as it braces for its second major weather event in a week.A month’s worth of rain is expected to fall in the space of a day on the east coast, with the ground already sodden and covered in up to a metre of mud and debris.Landslides have closed access to the Far North district, with many more slips reported and uncleared around the North Island. The New Zealand Transport Authority has asked Kiwis to cancel all non-essential travel and avoid driving if at all possible.Air New Zealand has said major disruptions and delays are expected to all its services country-wide.Landslides, flooding and possible evacuations are also expected in some parts of the east coast of the south island, although they will be less severe than in the North Island.Dunedin city council has asked anyone living in low-lying areas to door-knock on their neighbours to check if they are OK, and to sandbag or self-evacuate if they are concerned about flooding risks.
twitter: NiwaWeather twitterde op woensdag 12-04-2017 om 06:39:10 Our super high-resolution 1.5 km model shows #CycloneCook making landfall just south of Whangamata on Thursday even... https://t.co/fltUSfNiLj reageer retweet
quote: Op woensdag 19 april 2017 16:30 schreef Frutsel het volgende:Wat is deze...[ afbeelding ]
quote: Op woensdag 19 april 2017 16:31 schreef heywoodu het volgende:[..]Die vraag wil ik bij dezen graag herhalen, want ik heb werkelijk geen flauw benul waar ik naar kijk behalve dat ik wel zie welk gebied op aarde het is
quote:Difference Between Tropical And Subtropical StormsWhen an area of low pressure forms over waters with sea-surface temperatures of at least 70 degrees, a subtropical low can form. This is due to the core of the storm becoming warm, deriving some of its energy from latent heat, or energy released when water vapor that evaporated from the warm water is condensed into liquid.A subtropical depression or storm exhibits features of both tropical and non-tropical systems. This includes no cold or warm fronts, a broad wind field and thunderstorms removed some distance from the center.Subtropical storms also tend to have a large, cloud-free center and a less symmetric wind field. Maximum sustained winds are also much farther from the center, while the strongest winds in a tropical storm are close to the center.Subtropical cyclones typically are associated with upper-level lows and have colder temperatures aloft, whereas tropical cyclones are completely warm-core and upper-level high-pressure systems overhead help facilitate their intensification.The NHC still issues advisories and forecasts for subtropical depressions and storms. They are assigned a number or name, just like a tropical depression or storm.If the subtropical storm remains over warm water, thunderstorms can build close enough to the center of circulation, and latent heat given off aloft from the thunderstorms can warm the air enough to make the storm a fully tropical storm.As a result, the strongest winds and rain become closer to the center and, with time, further intensification becomes possible.
quote:Tropical Storm Arlene forms, poses no threat to landTropical Storm Arlene is the first named storm of 2017.Arlene formed Thursday afternoon in the Atlantic Ocean about 800 miles west of the Azores Islands, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. Thursday advisory.The storm was no threat to land.She is a rarity, though.“Tropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second one observed in this month during the satellite era,” wrote senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila in a forecast discussion posted on the National Hurricane Center’s website.“It should be noted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible to detect prior to the weather satellite era.”Arlene’s maximum sustained winds were at 45 mph. The storm was traveling toward the west-northwest at about 25 mph. Tropical storm-force winds were extending out about 105 miles from the storm’s center, the hurricane center said.Arlene’s lifespan was expected to be short, with the storm expected to dissipate on Friday.On Monday, the hurricane center said it was monitoring a patch of rough weather in the Central Atlantic that was expected to have a low chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone.On Wednesday it became a subtropical depression. By Thursday morning it was a tropical depression. Then, on Thursday afternoon, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene.Rare subtropical depression forms in the AtlanticRare subtropical depression forms in the AtlanticAvila was candid, and said the development was surprising.“I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career,” Avila wrote in the discussion. “Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical depression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical storm.”Although it’s not the Atlantic hurricane season yet, forecasters always warn that tropical depressions, storms, and hurricanes don’t pay attention to calendars. Such storms can happen anytime, they warn.The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
quote:Cyclone Donna: Immediate storm threat to Vanuatu, possible rain threat to NZ next weekTropical Cyclone Donna formed east of Vanuatu Wednesday night and was Thursday morning (NZT) upgraded to a Category 2 cyclone, likely to reach Severe Category 3 status by Friday morning.Donna poses a serious threat to Vanuatu with the tracking likely to impact much of the nation as the storm intensifies, bringing flooding rains, damaging winds and damaging storm surges.Donna may well be a Severe Cat 3 storm as it tracks over Vanuatu over the next few days.At this stage Donna isn't likely to impact Fiji to the east or Australia to the west. New Caledonia may get some rain and large seas.The Tropical Cyclone may also be short lived - possibly only lasting until just after the weekend when it falls apart as it drifts south towards the north of New Zealand and it's later next week that Donna may help shift tropical moisture down to New Zealand.Donna has formed outside the cyclone season which ended on Sunday, April 30th. WeatherWatch.co.nz said back in March the set up this year meant the season was likely to extend into May, possibly even into winter.WeatherWatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan says the modelling is still suggesting New Zealand may have flooding rains next week. "What we're seeing is a low in the Tasman working in conjunction with the remnants of Donna. A storm is not expected in New Zealand at this stage, but a period of heavy rain is looking increasingly possible and could be slow moving and intense enough to cause problems".However it's too early to lock in if it will be enough of a threat to prompt rain warnings. "The global modelling from various sources suggests New Zealand is a target for heavy rain, but the modeling has also shown uncertainty about the timing and duration of the rain. This is the critical part to work out if this is just a one off fairly-nothing burst of rain, or a more prolonged serious event. We'll have a better idea by the end of the weekend" says Mr Duncan.Donna is one to monitor due to the forecast set up next week which may see blocking high pressure on either side of New Zealand, possibly helping to funnel and focus this tropical moisture-rich air over the Upper North Island in particular. Following on from three significant flood events in the past two months authorities will already be closely monitoring this possible event
quote:Tropical Cyclone Donna becomes Category 5 storm, worst May storm on record in South PacificCyclone Donna is now the worst-ever tropical storm to hit the South Pacific in May after reaching Category 5 this morning.Weatherwatch.co.nz said according to CNN's Severe Weather Team Donna now had sustained winds of 215km/h gusting up to a ferocious 260km/h, making it the strongest May cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere.It eclipses Tropical Cyclone Nadu which struck in 1986.New Caledonia is next in Donna's firing line as the vicious storm heads south but it's still not clear if it will bring havoc to our shores.The Fiji MetService is yet to officially confirm any change in storm category. New Zealand's MetService says the Fijian weather agency is responsible for the cyclone and there is no expectation the storm will be upgraded in the its next update due around 1pm.As Donna ramps up, forecasters are closely watching its projected path across the Pacific.While it's expected to weaken as it moves down towards New Zealand both MetService and Weatherwatch.co.nz say it's unlikely there will be a direct hit.But there was an outside chance of it colliding with a spell of bad weather from Australia due to hit the country late on Thursday.Even if it passed by it was also likely to cause big swells and bring rain to parts of the country.Forecasters say it won't be until midweek that they'll have the best idea of when, or if, Donna will pose any major problems.Donna is currently buffeting Vanuatu where entire villages in the northern Torres group have sought shelter in caves. Elsewhere parts of Vanuatu's capital Port Vila have been submerged after heavy rain flooded low-lying areas.Roofs have been lifted and buildings destroyed as Donna carves a trail of destruction across islands in the Torba province. Authorities are warning residents across central Vanuatu islands to get ready to go to shelter.Weatherwatch.co.nz said after a "bouncy" tracking at the end of last week the tropical cyclone had finally turned south after waiting for the fine weather parked over New Zealand to leave.Donna is expected to track past Noumea early Wednesday morning.The cyclone would likely weaken once it left New Caledonia but could link up with a low crossing the country and bring incredibly heavy downpours.There was also a chance the remnants of Donna could develop into a new low pressure system east of the North Island and deepen further.MetService says Donna poses no immediate risk to New Zealand.
quote: Op maandag 8 mei 2017 10:21 schreef Frutsel het volgende:[..]
quote: Op maandag 8 mei 2017 19:29 schreef aloa het volgende:[..]Cat 5 volgens de Australische schaal dan denk ik?
quote:Donna becomes strongest May cyclone ever to hit southern hemisphereDuring the afternoon UTC hours of May 7, 2017, Tropical Cyclone "Donna" became the strongest May cyclone ever to hit the southern hemisphere. Donna peaked at 118.7 knots (220 km/h / 136 mph) at 19:32 UTC on May 7, before it started weakening. Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department reported estimated gusts close to the center reached as high as 300 km/h (186 mph).At 12:00 UTC on May 8, Severe Tropical Cyclone "Donna" had maximum sustained winds of 203 km/h (126 mph) close to the center, according to the RSMC Nadi, Fiji, the authority for this part of the world. This placed Donna on the upper edge of Category 3 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.At the time, the cyclone was located just 15 km (9.3 miles) north of the northern tip of Lifou Island (population ~10 000), New Caledonia, moving south-southeast at 13 km/h (8 mph) with an estimated central pressure of 935 hPa. Its center has just passed (~12:00 UTC) near or over Ouvea Island (population ~3 400), New Caledonia. Both Lifou Island and Ouvea belong the New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands Province. Damage reports from these islands are not available at the time.Before it hit the Loyalty Islands, Donna wreaked havoc on Vanuatu, forcing people to hide in evacuation centers, strong houses, and caves. Currently available damage reports mention Torba Province as the most affected area. A significant number of houses were totally destroyed and the majority of houses damaged
quote:Tropical Cyclone Ella aims for FijiThe Fiji Meteorological Service said the cyclone was 480km northeast of Vanua Belavu, the third-largest island in Fiji's Lau archipelago, at 6pm on Wednesday and was moving west southwest towards Fiji at 12km/h.In a warning issued at 8pm, the Metservice said a tropical cyclone alert remained in force for Lau and the Lamaiviti group, Vanua Levu, Tavenui and nearby smaller islands.It said people in those areas could expect strong southeasterly winds with average speeds of 45 km/h gusting to 80km/h, which were predicted to increase further to damaging gale force winds of 85km/h to 110km/h from Thursday evening.For the rest of Fiji, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds were predicted to strengthen with gusts increasing to 80km/h on Friday.Isolated showers and thunderstorms were also forecast with showers becoming frequent and heavy.Fiji's Chief of Operations Rusiate Tudravu told FBC News people needed to take the necessary precautions for heavy rain and flash flooding in low lying areas.People in Tonga's northernmost island group, the Niuas, were also preparing for Cyclone Ella.The country's National Emergency Management Office director Leveni 'Aho said emergency services were on standby there, where up to 700 people live.He said locals were preparing for tonight, when the storm would be at its closest."Get their fuel and batteries and radio and things like that. The normal things we do in preparation for cyclones."There were no reports of damage yet, he said.In Samoa, a heavy rain warning was in effect on Wednesday after the country's weather authorities warned flooding was possible in vulnerable areas.A Samoan Disaster Management Office spokesperson said landslides were possible and people living on land that could be affected should consider moving to safer areas.Meanwhile, as Cyclone Donna passed New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands further east than forecast, alerts were lifted and many schools had reopened.
twitter: breakingweather twitterde op woensdag 10-05-2017 om 13:14:58 #Adrian became the earliest tropical storm on record in the east Pacific late last night: https://t.co/5LnIPqFZR0 https://t.co/RGHkH1YFhf reageer retweet