quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:09 schreef aloa het volgende:Carlos komt dicht in de buurt van Mauritius en Réunion.
quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 13:22 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Vanuit Mauritius kan ik melden dat het hier reuze meevalt. Flink wat regen gehad vannacht en het is erg bewolkt maar van veel regen of wind is nog geen sprake. Dat is jammer want er is een nijpend water tekort op Mauritius (ik denk dat Reunion stiekem ook wel blij is met flink wat regen). Als er iets te melden valt dan laat ik het weten.
quote:Komt nog meer neerslag bij de komende dagen...
quote: Op zondag 5 februari 2017 16:40 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Aloa, ik hoor steeds meer verschillende verhalen over de de koers van Carlos, JTWC heeft weinig vertrouwen omdat de modellen niet overeenstemmen mbt wanneer de cycloon gaat afbuigen richting Madegascar. Ik hoor net dat het vliegveld dicht is en dat morgen de scholen niet zullen openen.... Ik wacht de laatste GFS run maar even af....
quote:Tropical Cyclone Dineo formed near BassasTropical Cyclone "Dineo" formed near Bassas da India atol in the Mozambique Channel, Southern Indian Ocean on February 13, 2017. This the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2016/17 Southern hemisphere cyclone season. Dineo is expected to rapidly intensify over the next 36 hours and make landfall over Inhambane, southern Mozambique during the early UTC hours of February 16.At 15:00 UTC on February 13, Dineo was located approximately 89 km (55 miles) NNW of Europa Island and has tracked SSW at 3.7 km/h (2.3 mph) over the past six hours, JTWC said. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation center with deep convective banding wrapping into the partially-exposed center.At the time, its intensity was assessed at 74 km/h (46 mph) based on surface observations from Europa Island and Advanced SCATterometer image.Overall, the environment is favorable for intensification with near-radial outflow, low to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature near 30 °C (86 °F).After 36 hours, around 03:00 UTC on February 15, Dineo will turn westward to west-northwestward. Its current forecast track indicates landfall along the east coast of Mozambique around 03:00 UTC on February 16 and dissipation over land during the UTC afternoon of February 18.There is still uncertainty in the exact location of this potential landfall, with accuracy around 400 km (250 miles), RSMC La Reunion said at 18:00 UTC today."A strong and continuous intensification is expected until its possible landfall," they concluded.
quote:MAPUTO - Tropical storm Dineo has killed seven people in Mozambique since it hit the eastern coast on Wednesday, the government's disaster centre said on Thursday.The storm, has brought heavy rain and winds of up to 160 km an hour, raising the risk of flooding and crop damage in the impoverished southern African country.Mozambique's emergency operational centre said in a statement about 130,000 people living in the Inhambane province, 500 km north of the capital Maputo, had been affected by the storm. About 20,000 homes were destroyed by heavy rains and fierce winds.One of the world's poorest countries and also in the throes of a financial crisis, Mozambique is prone to flooding. It is especially vulnerable after a major drought last year as soils degraded or hardened by dry spells do not easily absorb water."The system will pose a great risk for the next 36 to 48 hours, particularly in terms of further exceptionally heavy rainfall and resultant flooding," the South African Weather Service said in a statement.The Mozambican government said the situation was less severe in Gaza, which has the popular resort town of Xai-Xai as its capital and is near the border with South Africa.Government said however that it feared flooding in the area due to the torrential downpour.Experts said the storm should weaken as it moves over land, but that it could still bring heavy rainfall.Damage could be inflicted on Mozambique's multi-million-dollar macadamia nut industry. Subsistence maize farmers recovering from last year's El Nino-triggered drought are also at risk.Floods in 2000 and 2001 killed hundreds of people in Mozambique and two cyclones in January 2012 killed 26 and displaced more than 125,000, according to official data.http://ewn.co.za/2017/02/(...)e-in-mozambique-govt
quote:Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed in Gulf of CarpentariaTropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" has formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia on February 20, 2017. This is the second named tropical system of the 2016/17 Australian region tropical cyclone season. Alfred is slow-moving storm edging closer to the coast of Northern Territory and Queensland and is expected to make landfall today. Abnormally high tides are expected for the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast over the next few days. Many catchments of the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers are saturated from monsoonal conditions over the past two weeks and are responding strongly to further rainfall.Alfred reached Category 1 status on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale today (63 - 88 km/h / 39 - 54 mph) and is expected to remain at that strength as it makes landfall later tonight (local time), between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border.Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" forecast track by BOM on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" at 09:50 UTC on February 20, 2017. Credit JMA/Himawari, BOMAt 03:00 UTC today, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Alfred" was located approximately 733 km (455 miles) ESE of Darwin, and has tracked ESE at 5.5 km/h (3.4 mph), according to the JTWC. Maximum sustained winds at 00:00 UTC today were 74 km/h (46 mph). There is a limited opportunity for the system to intensify further in the next 12 hours to 83 km/h (51.8 mph), JTWC said earlier today. However, proximity to the land will hinder further development and the system is expected to fully dissipate over land by 03:00 UTC on February 22.
quote: Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:De draaiing is inmiddels zichtbaar. Heel veel vocht voor dit systeem.
quote: Op woensdag 1 maart 2017 10:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Mooie GIF Aloa, van welke site komt die?
quote: Op donderdag 2 maart 2017 13:28 schreef the_butler het volgende:Wat is ECMWF toch aan het het doen? Regelrecht richting Madegascar....Aloa, wanneer denk je wanneer de sturing duidelijker wordt; nadat er een duidelijke kern zichtbaar wordt, zaterdag? worden een interessant aantal dagen in ieder geval.
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:22 schreef aloa het volgende:HWRF laat het zelfs uitgroeien tot een cat 5.
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 07:27 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]zoiets?[ afbeelding ]
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:37 schreef Frutsel het volgende:Doet me denken aan Fantala van vorig jaar WKN / Hurricane Season 2016 #1: Orkanen wereldwijd
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:40 schreef aloa het volgende:[..]Deze kan wel in de buurt komen...
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 08:43 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]qua kracht of onzekerheid in traject? Ik loop iedere weer site te refreshen in de hoop eindelijk wat goede sturings trajecten van de verschillende modellen te zien. Maar ik denk dat het wachten is op een duidelijk centrum van de storm voordat er iets zinnigs gezegd kan worden. Ik wilde altijd nog een cycloon meemaken maar een CAT5 mag rustig uit de buurt blijven
quote: Op vrijdag 3 maart 2017 09:19 schreef the_butler het volgende:GFS kapot? Geeft 873 Mbar (Absoluut) aan?
quote: Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 11:55 schreef aloa het volgende:
quote: Op zaterdag 4 maart 2017 13:06 schreef the_butler het volgende:[..]Laten we hopen dat CMC helemaaal de weg kwijt is. Trouwens wel apart waarom juist CMC zo afwijkt, iemand een reden?
quote: Op zondag 5 maart 2017 11:36 schreef aloa het volgende:EC laat op iets langere termijn een ander systeem zien bij Mauritius...
quote:Cyclone Blanche aims for Western AustraliaTropical Cyclone "Blanche" formed late March 5, 2017 in the Timor Sea and soon crossed the Kimberly coast between Wyndham and Kalamburu, Western Australia as Category 2 system on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale. This is the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. As the cyclone formed and strengthened, Bathurst Island recorded 384 mm (15.1 inches), which has smashed the previous daily rainfall total by more than 100 mm (3.9 inches).Blanche had sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) with wind gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said at 02:00 UTC today (12:30 ACST). It was moving southwest at 18 km/h (11 mph). The agency said destructive winds with gusts to 150 km/h (93 mph) are being experienced between Kalumburu and Wyndham in WA, easing to gales this afternoon (local time) as the system weakens.Gales with gusts to 120 km/h (74 mph) are also being experienced between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA, easing during this evening to below gale force.Tides will be higher than normal between Wyndham and Kalumburu in WA during today. Large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas.A Yellow Alert is in effect between Wyndham and Kalumburu and coastal communities, people need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.Blue Alert is in effect between WA/NT Border to Kununurra and people need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
quote:Enawo made landfall as category 4 : Third strongest ever to hit MadagascarIntense Tropical Cyclone "Enawo" made landfall between Sambava and Antalaha, Madagascar on March 7, 2017, as Category 4 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is the most powerful tropical cyclone to hit Madagascar since Gafilo in March 2004 and the third strongest on record to strike the island. Enawo is predicted to affect approximately 1.4 million people. Another tropical cyclone is brewing to the east of the country and will likely be named over the next 24 hours.Enawo made landfall at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on March 7 at 14.6 degrees north latitude and 50.2 degrees east longitude, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours.At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph) making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous.Category 4 hurricane can have the following effects: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."Northern Madagascar will experience damaging winds and heavy rainfall into Wednesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nichol said. Even though significant weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther inland, the provinces of Antsiranana and Toamasina will remain at risk for life-threatening flooding rain and destructive wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) into Wednesday.The damage caused by floods could potentially affect 8 regions: Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, Sofia, Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Menabe, Vatovavy Fitovinany, and Atsimo Andrefana.Drought-stricken Madagascar will likely receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week.nawo is being compared to the last hurricane-strength tropical cyclone Giovanna that made landfall on Madagascar's east coast on February 13, 2012. Giovanna is blamed for 33 deaths along the Madagascar coast, and was the first intense tropical cyclone to impact Madagascar, since Bingiza in February 2011.Since 1983, Madagascar has been struck by 12 major tropical cyclones. The deadliest was Tropical Cyclone "Gafilo" on March 7, 2004. Gafilo was also a Category 4 storm with 241 km/h (150 mph) winds and was responsible for deaths of 363 people.According to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters, Enawo is the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere so far in the 2016 - 2017 season, and the first one to exceed Category 1 strength. "It has been an unusually quiet tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post," he noted and added:"Of most concern are the rains from Enawo, as it is an unusually large and wet storm. The amount of water vapor detected by satellite is near the very high end of what is observed in tropical cyclones—precipitable water values up to 3.0 inches. Recent runs of the HWRF model predict extreme rainfall amounts falling on heavily populated regions of Madagascar, and Enawo has the potential to be a top-three most damaging storm in the island’s history.Enawo will decay rapidly as it takes a track directly down the length of Madagascar, exposing the entire island to flooding rains. However, the disaster could have been worse—more than half of the rivers in Madagascar have dried up or are flowing at less than 5 percent of their average streamflow, thanks to a two-year El Niño-linked drought. Enawo’s rains will help break the drought, which has caused large-scale crop failures and put over half a million people into acute food insecurity."
quote:Strongest cyclone in 13 years hits MadagascarThe strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 13 years has made landfall on the northeastern coast of the island nation on Tuesday.Cyclone Enawo was packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour when it made landfall, with stronger gusts of up to 270 kph and a central pressure of 925 millibars, making it equivalent to a power category 4 hurricane. The last time Madagascar experienced a storm of this magnitude was in March of 2004 when Cyclone Gafilo made landfall in approximately the same location, claiming 236 lives and destroying over 20,000 homes.Even though it has been over 24 hours since the storm made landfall between the coastal communities of Farahalana and Antalaha, the amount of rain from the remnants of Enawo is still expected to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides through late week.With 89 percent of Madagascar's roads being dirt, getting into the hardest hit areas of the north and east will be difficult. Very little information has yet to come out of those regions, but it is expected that there will be widespread power outages from down trees and extensive flood damage. Reports of casualties and injured were expected to rise in the coming days.Through Thursday the storm will continue to move south across the island, continue to bring with it heavy rainfall and gusty winds. By Friday, what is left of Enawo will have exited the southern tip of the country and back into the Indian Ocean.Normally the Indian Ocean sees 4-5 "hurricane strength" cyclones each year. Cyclone Hellen was the last cyclone to make landfall in Madagascar in March, 2014
quote:Six people killed by EnawoAt least six people have been killed, 7 injured and more than 760 000 affected in nine regions as Enawo, the third strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar, hit the island on March 7, 2017. Towns and cities were flooded, houses, schools, hospitals and critical infrastructure destroyed and thousands of people displaced. Water and power outages are widespread in affected areas. The full extent of the damage is as yet unknown due to poor communication and difficulty reaching affected areas. The death toll is expected to rise.Slow-moving Enawo hit the country as Category 4 hurricane equivalent at 08:00 UTC (11:00 local time) on Tuesday, March 7, about half way between Sambava and Antalaha. As it hit, Enawo became quasi-stationary and pounded Antalaha with strong winds and heavy rain for several hours. At 09:00 UTC (4 a.m. EST) its maximum sustained winds were 231 km/h (144 mph). By 18:00 UTC, they dropped to 167 km/h (103 mph), which made it a Category 2 hurricane equivalent, still extremely dangerous. By March 8, Enawo weakened from an “intense” to a “moderate” tropical storm, with an average speed of 80 km/h (50 mph) with peaks of 112 km/h (70 mph).The tropical cyclone dropped the highest rainfall totals of over 500 mm (almost 20 inches) in the open waters of the Indian Ocean northeast of Madagascar.Madagascar was expected to receive between 700 and 900 mm (27 and 36 inches) of rain this week, which will come as a blessing to some as the country suffers from severe and chronic drought, particularly in the south of the country. More than 850 000 people are severely food insecure.UNOCHA and the Government of Madagascar reported March 9 that the northeastern Sava region has sustained significant damage to housing and agriculture.Antalaha port is inaccessible and more than half of the city’s homes have been destroyed, with northern areas particularly affected. Farahalana commune is flooded by Lohoko River, with half of all housing under water. Farms along the famous Vanilla Coast have been hard hit, while rice fields in Antalaha and Sambava are submerged.Carcasses of migratory birds have washed up on the shores of Fenerive Est in the Analanjirofo region, where more than 10 000 people are displaced. Two school buildings have collapsed, an airport road blocked, and more than 500 houses flooded in the districts of Mananara Nord, Maroantsetra, Vavatenina and Soanierana Ivongo. Flood waters in Maroantsetra have attained a height of four meters (13 feet).The Malagasy Red Cross reports that evacuations are underway in the flood-affected cities of Brickaville and Toamasina I & II in Antsinanana region.
quote:Cycloon kost leven aan 38 mensen op Madagaskar De tropische cycloon Enawo, die dinsdag op Madagaskar aan land kwam, heeft het leven gekost aan 38 mensen, 180 mensen verwond en 53.000 anderen dakloos gemaakt.Het nationale rampenbureau van Madagascar maakte het slachtoffertal zaterdag bekend, meldt AP. Het is aanzienlijk hoger dan eerdere schattingen, waarin werd gerept over vier doden en tienduizend ontheemden.Enawo bereikte windsnelheden van meer dan 230 kilometer per uurVooral de hoofdstad Antananarivo is zwaar getroffen, zei het rampenbureau. Daar zijn meer dan 32.000 mensen dakloos geraakt.Volgens het Rode Kruis kunnen tot zevenhonderdduizend mensen negatieve gevolgen ondervinden van de cycloon. Het was de krachtigste storm die landval maakte in Madagaskar sinds 2012, toen meer dan honderd mensen omkwamen door cycloon Giovanna.