European Banking System on Verge of Collapse #02

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Op zondag 9 oktober 2016 13:25 schreef Nintex het volgende:
Deutsche Bank heeft geen deal kunnen sluiten met de Amerikanen. 14 miljard, blijft 14 miljard.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-08/deutsche-bank-s-cryan-doesn-t-reach-accord-with-u-s-bild-says

Gerucht is nu dat de grote Duitse multi nationals een kapitaal injectie gaan doen
http://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/deutsche-bank/dax-unternehmen-wollen-bank-finanziell-helfen-48176640.bild.html

Rood: Lehman Collapse
Blauw: Deutsche Collapse

[ afbeelding ]

Dat dacht ik wel, hun window van onderhandelen is ver voorbij.

Still No Deutsche Bank Agreement: Dillutive Stock Sale Coming Up?

Deutsche bank has been caught in at least three recent lies. It said it was not talking with the German government about a bailout, but it was; It said it would not need to raise capital but it does; It said it could afford to pay the department of Justice fine of $14 billion but it cannot.

This weekend, there is still no agreement with the US department of justice over reducing the fine, but rumors have circulated that Qatar’s royal family is considering increasing its stake in Deutsche Bank to as much as 25 percent. There are also rumors Deutsche Bank will raise capital by selling shares.

Bloomberg reports Deutsche Bank’s Cryan Doesn’t Reach Accord With U.S.

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Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer John Cryan failed to reach an agreement with the U.S. Justice Department to resolve a years-long investigation into its mortgage-bond dealings during a meeting in Washington Friday, Germany’s Bild newspaper reported.

The meeting was meant to negotiate the multi-billion-dollar settlement the bank will have to pay to resolve alleged misconduct arising from its dealings in residential-mortgage backed securities that led to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a Bild am Sonntag report.

The German lender is still considering seeking damages against Anshu Jain and Josef Ackermann, who are both former CEOs of the bank, the newspaper reported. Bild said the bank froze part of the millions in bonus payments to Jain and other former top managers.

Concerns about Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay the $14 billion opening settlement bid from the Justice Department sent the lender’s stock to a record low last month. The bank, which set aside 5.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) for litigation at the end of June, may face additional penalties to wrap up other outstanding investigations, including one into a money-laundering probe tied to its Russia operations. Analysts at Barclays Plc speculate that could cost the bank as much as 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion).

Cryan, a Briton who speaks fluent German, has sought for the last three weeks to reassure investors that Deutsche Bank can weather the formidable obstacles to its financial health. The bank is holding informal talks with Wall Street firms about options to deal with legal costs, including a stock sale that could raise 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion), people with knowledge of the matter said this week.

Qatar’s royal family is also considering increasing its stake in Deutsche Bank
to as much as 25 percent, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Dillutive Stock Sale Coming Up?

Deutsche Bank’s Market cap is about $19 billion. To raise $5 billion at current prices, shareholder dilution would be roughly 26 percent.

Share price is current $13.67. A 26% haircut would send share prices close to $10. But is $5 billion in capital even enough?

I rather doubt it. And raising $10 billion would mean 52% more shares.

In 2014,the bank could have raised funds at $51. In 2015 it could have raised money at $35. Now it has to raise money at a share price of $13.64.

Share price actually could rise on a stock sale simply on the fact the bank is doing something to raise capital, but that will not dilution due to massive share issuance.
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Zover zullen hun eigen aandelen niet volledig onder water zetten. Maar dit gaat wel ten koste van hun eigen reserves. Vandaar nu de snelle verkoop van wat bedrijfsonderdelen.
Wat e.e.a.wel opmerkelijker maakt is dat de Duitse minister van economische zaken hier nooit ingegrepen heeft. De schuldvraag en het bedrag waren toen al bekend.

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Op zondag 9 oktober 2016 13:25 schreef Nintex het volgende:
Gerucht is nu dat de grote Duitse multi nationals een kapitaal injectie gaan doen
http://www.bild.de/geld/wirtschaft/deutsche-bank/dax-unternehmen-wollen-bank-finanziell-helfen-48176640.bild.html

In plaats van nieuwe innovatie gaan ze nu goed geld tegen slecht geld aangooien. Dit is technisch zelfs tegen de principes van waar de EU feitelijk voor staat.

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Op zondag 9 oktober 2016 21:56 schreef JeSuisDroppie het volgende:
Lekker short gaan op DB, altijd goed.

Probleem is, dit had je 3 jr geleden moeten doen. Ik zag het ook niet 1-2-3 aankomen. Niet met een stabiele factor als de Duitse economie op de achtergrond. Pas de afgelopen 2 jaar zijn er wat lijken uit de kast komen rollen. Waar het gaat stoppen weet niemand.

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Op maandag 10 oktober 2016 15:43 schreef Basp1 het volgende:
Wat fijn, onafhankelijke europese toezichthouders die oogjes dichtknijpen bij stresstesten van de deutsche bank.

En de bankiers en politici zich maar afvragen waarom het publiek geen vertrouwen in deze sectoren heeft.

Inderdaad, die stresstest was een aanfluiting van onbehoorlijk ECB toezicht.
NWS / Stresstest banken een toneelstukje?

UPDATE 1-Ex-Italian minister readying new Monte dei Paschi rescue - sources

LONDON, Oct 7 A former Italian minister is preparing an alternative rescue plan for Monte dei Paschi di Siena amid signs that a 5 billion euro ($5.6 billion) recapitalisation arranged by JPMorgan is not getting investor support, three sources said. (Goh wat vreemd )

Corrado Passera, who as well as being a former industry minister served as chief executive of Intesa Sanpaolo, is working with private equity firms including Warburg Pincus on a plan that includes a reserved capital increase of 2.0-2.5 billion euros, the sources said.

Two of the sources said none of the funds approached by Passera had committed to backing the plan and while they were open to doing a deal, this was subject to due diligence. Another source said no deal was imminent.

It is far from certain that Monte dei Paschi will turn to Passera, who was not immediately available for comment, or that his scheme would stand a better chance of success than JPMorgan's, one of the sources said.

And a source close to the JPMorgan-led consortium of investment banks said they were pressing ahead with their plan and were confident it would succeed.

OLDEST BUT WEAKEST

The sources said private equity funds who have been working with Passera trust his ability to turn around the Siena-based bank, the world's oldest, which in July emerged as the weakest lender in the latest round of European stress tests.

Monte dei Paschi's board rejected in July a last-minute attempt by Passera to put forward a rescue plan backed by Swiss investment bank UBS, a long-standing adviser to the Tuscan bank. It approved instead the privately-backed rescue arranged by JPMorgan with the help of Mediobanca.

However, the deal has since ran into trouble, senior bankers say. A preliminary survey of investors over the summer found scant interest in a third cash call in as many years, while analysts have questioned the feasibility of a capital raising that totals 10 times the bank's current market value.

Last month, Monte dei Paschi abruptly replaced chief executive Fabrizio Viola with the head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Italy, Marco Morelli, in the hope of winning investors confidence and is now studying a debt-to-equity conversion to cut the size of the share sale.

JPMorgan is also looking for investors to back a reserved share sale but has yet to find any, several sources said.

Recent talks with a sovereign wealth fund fell through, one of the sources said, raising fears the bank may need state aid.

Most foreign investors are unwilling to commit any cash until a Dec. 4 referendum on constitutional reform that could unseat Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's government, bankers say.

"No investment committee will ever approve a deal for Monte dei Paschi without knowing the outcome of the Italian referendum," an investor close to the bank said. ($1 = 0.8951 euros) (Editing by Alexander Smith)
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Met andere woorden er is nog steeds geen werkend plan om MPS te redden.

Deutsche Bank has another problem: Its ETF business

A red traffic light stands illuminated as the logo of Deutsche Bank AG sits on the exterior of the bank's offices in Berlin, Germany.
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty Images

As if Deutsche Bank officials don't have enough to worry about this year, they also have to contend with money bleeding out of their exchange-traded products.

The burgeoning $2.4 trillion ETF industry has been kind to a lot of big players on Wall Street, with Deutsche Bank being a significant provider of the products. However, a change in the currency trade winds this year has taken a tough toll on a bank fighting to dispel worries about its overall stability.

Thus far in 2016, Deutsche's fairly expansive ETF family has seen nearly $6.7 billion in outflows, representing roughly a one-third decline in assets. The bank has moved down a notch, from 10th to 11th, among leading ETF providers, with $13.3 billion in assets currently, according to FactSet.

Exacting most of the damage has been an unwind of one of 2015's hottest trades — currency hedging, with the expectation that the U.S. dollar was on a steady trek higher and European economic growth would pick up. With the Fed on hold and euro zone economies struggling, the currency hedge trade — ETFs that had seen sharp inflows on its expectations — has come undone.
Ticker

Deutsche fund name
Source: FactSet

"The challenge for them has nothing to do with the bank itself and more to with their assets are primarily focused on their international equity products," said Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA. "Investors have been moving money out of those products in 2016, with concerns about economic prospects in Europe, concerns about Japan, and adding on to it the dollar has not done what it did last year."

The biggest hit by far to the Deutsche products has been its Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF, the $7.8 billion fund has lost nearly 40 percent of its assets this year though it is only down 2 percent in price. The fund carries exposure to developed global stock markets while hedging against fluctuations in the dollar. Other funds have taken hits as well (see chart).

"Despite outflows, we continue to believe we are in the environment when currency hedging delivers value over unhedged strategies," Deutsche said in a statement. "Currencies continue to add considerable volatility to performance, and our outlook is for the U.S. dollar to strengthen against the foreign currencies. This paired with positive carry in many markets, makes currency hedging a strong proposition."

Deutsche said it believes the move against currency hedges is cyclical, and pointed out that its market share in currency hedged products actually has increased from 31 percent to 34 percent this year.

It's been a rough year overall for currency products, which have seen nearly $455 million in outfliows, about a 13 percent decline. Fixed income has seen the biggest gain in total inflows at $80.2 billion, while equity products have pulled in $60.9 billion, according to FactSet.

"For hedge products to have success, investors need to buy into the theme that they're reducing risk," Rosenbluth said. "If and when the dollar strengthens again, the trade will return to popularity."

BlackRock remains the largest provider of ETF products, with $938.3 billion under management. Vanguard is next with $576.5 billion, while SSGA follows with $454.6 billion.
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Gewoon een stukje derivaten wat niet lekker loopt, en aan het verdampen is. Op zich niet zo ongunstig dat die derivaten zeepbel iets kleiner aan het worden is. Nadeel is wel dat dit ten koste gaat van hun verdienmodel.

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Op dinsdag 11 oktober 2016 21:54 schreef Gutmensch het volgende:
Lekker paniekzaaien [ afbeelding ]

Paniekzaaiers zijn juist het grootste gevaar voor onze stabiliteit. En helaas heeft elke idioot tegenwoordig een wereldwijd podium.

Ah daar hebben we onze favoriete (uche) EU-fantast weer. Die als een wilde stier on Steroids staat te snuiven als er één negatief woord over de EUSSR geschreven is.

'Deutsche Bank overweegt nog eens tienduizend banen te schrappen'

Deutsche Bank overweegt naar verluidt nog eens tienduizenden banen te schrappen. Een definitieve beslissing is nog niet genomen.

De financieel directeur van Deutsche Bank, Marcus Schenck, zou dit aan het personeel hebben verteld, meldt een anonieme bron aan persbureau Reuters.

Deutsche Bank is al bezig met een reorganisatie waarbij negenduizend banen verdwijnen, maar een extra ontslagronde zou mogelijk nodig zijn.

De grootste bank van Duitsland ziet zich genoodzaakt de kosten te verlagen. Ondertussen dreigen enorme boetes voor fouten uit het verleden.

Zo hangt Deutsche Bank een boete van maar liefst 14 miljard dollar boven het hoofd van de Amerikaanse toezichthouder voor misstanden rond de verkoop van hypotheken in de Verenigde Staten.

Afgelopen donderdag werd gemeld op basis van anonieme bronnen dat de bank een vacaturestop had ingevoerd.
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Deutsche Bank AG is een wereldwijd opererende bank met meer dan 100.000 werknemers.
Grof ingeschat is dat ongeveer 1 op 6.

Deutsche Bank’s woes may only be tip of European iceberg
The banking sector is in such trouble that the IMF says it threatens the global economy

Artikel is te lang om te posten maar dit is wel een opvallende passage.

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These worries are feeding into what is becoming an increasingly tense debate between Europe and the US over changes to Basel rules, which may lead to an increase in capital requirements for banks. The Basel group, founded 41 years ago to harmonise bank rules across the globe, is currently updating its Basel III rules.

In an uncharacteristic push-back from the European Commission, vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said earlier this month that the EU would reject the rules if European concerns were not taken into account.

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Met andere woorden Europa kan nu al nauwelijks voldoen aan Basel III. Laat staan dat ze Basel III versie 2.0 kunnen implementeren. Simpelweg omdat er niet genoeg kapitaalbuffers opgebouwd zijn. Wat modellen en stresstests betreft is Amerika een heel stuk betrouwbaarder.

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Onerous requirements

The issue dominated Tuesday’s meeting of European finance ministers in Luxembourg, with the officials coming out strongly against the changes amid fears they could put onerous capital requirements on banks.

Europe opposes new proposals to limit the use of internal models by big banks to calculate the risk profile of assets. It is also resisting proposals for a new “output” floor, which it believes would increase the capital requirements on banks.

Europe argues that the specificities of the continent’s banking sector are not being taken into account. In particular, it points out that, in Europe, most companies rely on bank lending for finance. In the US, 70 per cent of lending is provided by capital markets rather than banks.

Similarly, the US is not taking into account the huge role played by property in the European banking sector. Unlike the US, where property loans tend to be securitised, European banks tend to maintain loans on their balance sheet.

Though highly technical, the issue threatens to become politically charged at a time when transatlantic tensions are high in the wake of the European Commission’s Apple judgment.

Despite a suggestion by Dutch finance minister and eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem that changes to the way bank’s calculate risk may be welcome, commissioner Dombrovskis insisted that the EU was united on the issue.

“Our current assessment is that proposals which are being discussed in the Basel committee may lead to a significant overall increase in capital requirements and reduce risk sensitivity of capital requirements,”he said after Tuesday’s meeting.

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Mjah, iets zegt me dat de gap tussen de EU en Amerika snel groter zal worden. En dat intercontinentaal banken elkaar minder gaan vertrouwen omdat we een update van Base III niet kunnen implementeren en daardoor minder transparantie is. Het gaat in mijn ogen zelfs zover dat Europa zijn eigen valse waarheid aan het creëren is.

Of ze gaan het wel implementeren en krijgen we een meer fatsoenlijke stresstest te zien over alle banken in Europa.

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commissioner Dombrovskis insisted that the EU was united on the issue.

Dat laatste zie ik echter nooit gebeuren.

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Op zaterdag 15 oktober 2016 21:44 schreef Bart2002 het volgende:

[..]

Paniekzaaierij weer.

Volgende week weten we veel meer als de ECB het overleg heeft gehad. Dat zullen pittige gesprekken worden, omdat ze zowat met de rug tegen de muur staan. En het medicijnenkastje van beschikbare maatregelingen om de economie aan te jagen ver leeg is.

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‘Draghi moet niet voor Sinterklaas gaan spelen’
Hoewel de roep om meer stimuleringsmaatregelen nog niet verstomd is, moet ECB-voorzitter Mario Draghi het uitdelen van gratis geld in zijn medicijnkastje laten zitten. Althans dat meent een ruime meerderheid van deelnemers aan een poll van DFT.NL.

De ECB die al zeer veel uit de kast heeft gehaald om de inflatie in de eurozone aan te jagen, heeft in zijn gereedschapskist ook nog de mogelijkheid om een geldbedrag rechtstreeks uit te
keren in de vorm van ‘helikoptergeld’.