quote:Major pattern shift will usher in severe weather
Marginally severe storms are possible across parts of Indiana and Illinois on Monday and the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, as a spoke of energy rotates around a upper-level low sweeping through eastern Canada. The bigger event will come later this week as the upper-level pattern shifts back toward a Pacific-dominated regime. Several inches of rain and major mountain snows are headed for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington as one storm swings through on Tuesday/Wednesday and a stronger one around Friday/Saturday.
The first upper-level wave in this sequence will reach the Great Plains by late Thursday. Low-level moisture will be rapidly returning from the Gulf, but it’s not yet clear whether enough instability will be on hand to support severe weather. If there is, the focal point would be along a strong dryline expected to be over the High Plains of western KS/OK/TX by late Thursday. A more robust severe threat appears likely for Friday over eastern TX/OK into AR/LA, and on Saturday across parts of MS/AL/GA/FL, as the system marches east into more-unstable air. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.
The next multi-day round of severe weather will likely erupt with the second wave in the series, in tandem with the gradual establishment of a upper-level trough in the western U.S. Models are struggling with the evolution of these features, although recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF models tend to agree on a pattern that would favor severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains of TX/OK for at least a day or two early next week.
quote:The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.
Meer zelfs, een moderate risk vandaag.quote:
Waarschijnlijk Kelley Williamsonquote:
http://edition.cnn.com/20(...)ash-texas/index.htmlquote:The crash occurred when a black Suburban traveling north on Farm to Market Road 1081 about 3:30 p.m. ran through a stop sign and collided with a Jeep traveling west on Farm to Market Road 2794, according to Sgt. John Gonzalez of the Texas Department of Public Safety.
Authorities identified the driver of the Suburban as Kelley Gene Williamson, 57, of Cassville, Missouri. The Suburban's passenger was Randall Delane Yarnall, 55, also of Cassville. The Jeep's driver was identified as Corbin Lee Jaeger, 25, of Peoria, Arizona.
Authorities said Williamson was not wearing his seat belt and was ejected from the vehicle. Yarnall and Jaeger were wearing their seat belts.
crapquote:Op woensdag 29 maart 2017 04:12 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:
quote:...Southeastern Plains into northwestern Gulf coast region...
Aforementioned warm sector environment conditions appear more than
favorable for organized severe storm development, in the presence of
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. Timing of initiation of
intense boundary layer based storm development remains somewhat
unclear, but it appears possible as early as Sunday morning in the
presence of low-level warm advection across southeast Texas. This
activity may be mostly discrete in nature, in the presence of
moderately large CAPE, strong deep layer shear and sizable
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. Evolving supercells are
expected to be accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, a few of which
may be strong.