quote:Op zondag 3 januari 2016 17:14 schreef aloa het volgende:
Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
quote:Tropical Storm Pali gathers strength in Central Pacific
The tropical depression located about 1400 miles southwest of Hawaii became Tropical Storm Pali on Thursday. Pali is the earliest tropical storm on record to develop between the International Date Line and the Americas (though one could argue the record-smashing 2015 tropical season in the Central Pacific has sloshed into 2016). As of 15Z (8 am EST) Friday, January 8, Pali’s top sustained winds had reached 55 knots (65 mph). Pali is embedded in a low-level trough between a westerly wind burst south of the equator and strong trade winds north of the storm, with easterly wind shear evident in satellite imagery. Pali’s northwestward motion is expected to slow to a crawl this weekend, after which the storm may bend back toward the south. The strong vertical wind shear (20 - 30 knots) and interactions with the surface trough are expected to gradually weaken Pali over the next several days.
In the Northwest Atlantic, a powerful nontropical low is stirring up the ocean west of Bermuda with a large area of strong winds, some as high as 65 mph. Models continue to move this system toward the east and southeast by early next week, which could put it in a more favorable environment for subtropical development. On Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 30% chance of subtropical or tropical development over the next five days.
quote:Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific
As we ring in the New Year with record to near-record warm temperatures over much of Earth's oceans, we are confronted with something that would have been unimaginable a few decades ago: simultaneous January named storms in both the Atlantic and Central Pacific. The earliest named storm on record in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Pali, formed on January 7, and now the Atlantic has joined the early-season hurricane party, with Subtropical Storm Alex spinning up into history with 50 mph winds in the waters about 785 miles south-southwest of the Azores Islands. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is July 9; the Central Pacific also typically sees its first named storm in July. Alex could retain its subtropical characteristics till as late as Friday, when it will be shooting northward toward Greenland en route to being absorbed in a high-latitude storm. Meanwhile, Pali is predicted to remain a tropical cyclone for at least the next five days, perhaps coming within 2° latitude of the equator--something only two other tropical cyclones in world history have been observed to do--as the storm arcs toward the southwest and eventually back northwest, potentially becoming a typhoon when it crosses the Date Line.
A January named storm in the Atlantic--how rare?
Alex is just the fourth Atlantic named storm to form in January since record keeping began in 1851. The others:
An unnamed 1938 hurricane became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6.
Subtropical Storm One of January 18 – 23, 1978 gained subtropical depression status over waters of about 75 °F (24 °C) about 1,700 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico.
Tropical Storm One of 1951 was a tropical storm from January 4 - 9 in the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This was likely really a subtropical storm.
Two other named storms that formed in late December managed to last into January--Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 30, 2005 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands, and Hurricane Alice, which formed on December 30, 1954, and tracked west-southwest into the Caribbean, where it dissipated on January 7, 1955.
Alex can trace its genesis to an area of low pressure that formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on January 7. Between January 8 and 12, pre-Alex tracked generally eastwards over ocean waters that were 22 - 25°C (72 - 77°F); these temperatures were near-record warm for this time of year (about 2 - 4°F above average). These temperatures were just high enough so that Alex was able to gradually gain a warm core and become a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that Alex would have formed if these waters had been close to normal temperatures for this time of year. The unusually warm waters for Alex were due, in part, to the high levels of global warming that brought Earth its warmest year on record in 2015. Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific. To get both of these storms simultaneously in January is something that would have had a vanishingly small probability more than 30 years ago, before global warming really began to ramp up.
quote:Which year should Alex and Pali belong to?
One might argue that Alex and Pali are actually straggler storms from the 2015 Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons, rather than the first storms of 2016. Tropical sea-surface temperatures north of the equator typically bottom out around March, so there might be some physical rationale for defining the Central/Northeast Pacific and Atlantic hurricane “years” as being from March 1 to February 28/29. In practice, though, there are very few tropical cyclones in January and February, so in most years this switch would make no difference, and it could foster public confusion. There is a much stronger physical rationale for the practice of straddling hurricane seasons across calendar years in the Southern Hemisphere, where summer arrives in late December and cyclones often form before January 1.
quote:Alex Becomes the Atlantic’s First January Hurricane Since 1955
History spun up over the far reaches of the Northeast Atlantic on Thursday, as Subtropical Storm Alex carved out a distinct eye within a core of intense thunderstorms, making it Hurricane Alex. The 10 am EST advisory from the National Hurricane Center put Alex’s sustained winds at 85 mph. Alex was located about 500 miles south of Faial Island in the Azores, moving north-northeast at 20 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores. Given the strong steering currents driving Alex, there is high confidence that at least some of the central Azores will experience tropical storm or hurricane-force wind, heavy rain, and high surf. To get a hurricane making landfall in the Azores any time of year is quite unusual (about once per 10-20 years); to get a landfall in January would be truly remarkable.
In records going back to 1851, only two hurricanes are known to have prowled the Atlantic during the month of January: an unnamed tropical storm that became Hurricane One on January 4, 1938, and Hurricane Alice, which maintained hurricane strength from December 31, 1954, to January 4, 1955. Alice topped out at 80 mph, so Alex is officially the strongest January hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Much like Alice, another tropical cyclone--Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005/06--formed in December and extended into January, and a tropical storm was recorded in early January 1951. There was also a subtropical storm in January 1978.
A chilly hurricane
Designated a subtropical storm on Wednesday, Alex took on a surprisingly healthy structure overnight, with a symmetric core of showers and thunderstorms around its clear-cut eye. Sea-surface temperatures beneath Alex are only around 20-22°C (68-72°F). Although these are up to 1°C above average for this time of year, they are far cooler than usually required for tropical cyclone development. However, upper-level temperatures near Alex are unusually cold for the latitude, which means that instability--driven by the contrast between warm, moist lower levels and cold, drier upper levels--is higher than it would otherwise be. That instability allowed showers and thunderstorms to blossom and consolidate, strengthening the warm core that makes Alex a hurricane as opposed to an extratropical or subtropical storm.
Alex’s unusual life as a January hurricane will be a short one. The system is already accelerating northward ahead of a strong upper-level trough, and by late Friday it should be a powerful post-tropical low racing toward Greenland. Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35°F above average this weekend into early next week.
quote:Even though Alex will become absorbed in the higher-latitude storm system, its warm, moist air may assist in pushing temperatures over parts of Greenland more than 35°F above average this weekend into early next week.
In het zuiden van Groenland kan het oplopen tot boven nul...verder naar het noorden blijft het gewoon onder nul.quote:
Je moet het niet omrekenen. Het is ongeveer hetzelfde als 35 graden Celsius boven normaal (maar dan is de normaal ook celcius).quote:
Dat is meer verschil dan ik dacht.quote:
ver weg idd.quote:Op zondag 31 januari 2016 06:00 schreef the_butler het volgende:
Feest op Reunion / Mauritius over een dag of tien?
Dit is een voorspelling redelijk ver in de toekomst, die veranderd altijd wel dus in feite weet je waar de cycloon niet zal zijn maar toch... ruikt redelijk naar cat5. We zullen zien
[ afbeelding ]
Best wel opvallend.quote:
Nee want het kaartje dat aloa postte was voor 9 februari en daar zit wel degelijk wat ontwikkeling, zie vorige post.quote:
kijk eens naar mijn post voor Aloa Dat systeem verdampte alleen compleet in de daarop volgende dagen, met inderdaad een piepklein lage druk gebied naast Madagaskar. Vandaar mijn commentaar dat er maar niks gebeurt... tot nu dan, JTWC geeft een hoge kans dat er binnen 24 uur een cycloon gevormd kan zijn...quote:Nee want het kaartje dat aloa postte was voor 9 februari en daar zit wel degelijk wat ontwikkeling, zie vorige post.
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhquote:Op woensdag 10 februari 2016 06:18 schreef the_butler het volgende:
kijk eens naar mijn post voor Aloa Dat systeem verdampte alleen compleet in de daarop volgende dagen, met inderdaad een piepklein lage druk gebied naast Madagaskar. Vandaar mijn commentaar dat er maar niks gebeurt... tot nu dan, JTWC geeft een hoge kans dat er binnen 24 uur een cycloon gevormd kan zijn...
quote:Winston's 185 mph Winds in Fiji: Southern Hemisphere's Strongest Storm on Record
The strongest storm in recorded history for the Southern Hemisphere--mighty Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Winston--smashed through the islands of Fiji Friday night and Saturday morning with top sustained winds estimated at 185 mph. These winds vaulted Winston into a three-way tie as the second strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history.
Winston began its march at Category 5 strength through the Fiji Islands beginning at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) Friday. At that time, Winston had 165 mph winds as it moved westwards over the small Fiji island of Vanua Balavu (population 1,200). The island's airport was in the western eyewall of Winston, and at 18 UTC measured 10-minute average winds of 106 mph (roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.) Winston continued to intensify, then crashed ashore on the Fiji island of Koro (population 4,500) at peak strength--sustained winds of 185 mph--near 02 UTC Saturday (9 pm EST Friday.)
This is the second strongest landfall by any tropical cyclone, globally, in recorded history. Only Super Typhoon Haiyan's 190 mph winds at landfall in 2013 in Samar, Philippines have been rated higher. After likely demolishing most of Koro with a long period of sustained winds of EF4 tornado strength, Winston weakened slightly, to 180 mph winds, while its northern (weaker) eyewall brushed the south coast of Fiji's second largest island, Vanua Levu. The city of Nambouwalu on the south coast of Vanua Levu reported 10-minute sustained winds of 121 mph at 06 UTC Saturday (roughly equivalent to Category 4 winds of 135 mph using the U.S. 1-minute averaging time.)
Winston then wobbled more to the west-southwest, possibly due to interaction with the high terrain of the two largest islands of Fiji. Maintaining winds of 180 mph, Winston slammed ashore along the northeast coast of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu in Rakiraki, a district of close to 30,000 people, near 07 UTC Saturday. The eye of Winston travelled westwards along the north coast of Viti Levu for two hours, pounding the entire north coast of the island with the strongest part of the storm, the southern eyewall. When Winston finally emerged from the island near 09 UTC Saturday, the storm was slightly weaker, but still had Category 5 winds of 160 mph. At that time, the edge of Winston's south eyewall moved over the second largest city in Fiji, Lautoka (population 80,000). The top sustained winds at the Lautoka tide station were 83 mph, gusting to 110 mph. These 10-minute average winds imply that at least Category 2 hurricane conditions (95 - 100 mph 1-minute averaged winds) were likely experienced there (thanks go to wunderground member Carnivorous for this link.) Damage to Fiji is going to be severe to catastrophic, but it will be several days before the true scope of the destruction is realized.
Winston the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere
Winston's 185 mph sustained winds at its peak intensity at 00 UTC February 20 are the highest for any Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The previous record was 180 mph winds, held jointly by Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Monica of 2006. Winston's lowest central pressure as estimated by the Fiji Meteorological Service was 915 mb at 06 UTC February 20.
This ranks Winston as the 29th most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere by pressure. The record lowest pressure is 890 mb by Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Winston's top winds were higher than its central pressure might imply because it was a relatively small cyclone, so the wind-generating difference in pressure was packed into a small area. Winston joins a very select club of Category 5 storms ever recorded to churn the South Pacific waters east of Australia. Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Cat 5s (including Winston) have been observed in the South Pacific east of Australia. Only two of the ten previous Cat 5s have made landfall as a Category 5.
The most recent was last year's Cyclone Pam, which was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island. The other Category 5 landfall was by Cyclone Zoe of 2002, which made a direct hit as a Category 5 storm on several small islands in the Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands with a total population of 1700. There was one other close call, though: the eye of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Olaf passed 15 miles east of Ta'u, American Samoa, on February 16, 2005, but caused minimal damage.
En hoe groot is de kans dat ie nog een keer zo'n rondje gaat doen? :-Xquote:Op maandag 22 februari 2016 09:45 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Check het ongebruikelijke pad... net als je denkt dat je op Fiji veilig zit...
niets is uitgesloten maar de meeste modellen laten hem nu toch afbuigen richting NZ/Australiëquote:
quote:Fiji ligt in puin
Het aantal doden als gevolg van de cycloon Winston in Fiji is opgelopen tot achttien. Door de gebrekkige communicatie dringt de omvang van de schade slechts langzaam door. Meer dan zesduizend mensen zijn in noodcentra opgevangen omdat hun huizen onbewoonbaar zijn geworden. De cycloon trof de eilandengroep in het weekeinde met windsnelheden tot 285 kilometer per uur, waarmee de storm volgens de website Weather Underground de krachtigste werd die ooit op het zuidelijk halfrond werd gemeten. De 900.000 inwoners tellende archipel heeft meer dan honderd bewoonde eilanden, waarvan Koro het ergst lijkt te zijn getroffen.
Hier en daar lukt het fotografen om, al dan niet vanuit een helikopter, de verwoesting van en in een aantal van de vaak afgelegen dorpjes op Fiji vast te leggen.
De natuur zal zich wel rap herstellen.. Volgens mij zal er binnen een paar maanden wat dat betreft weinig meer van de gevolgen van de cycloon te merken zijn.quote:
Volgens mij verwacht men een boven actief seizoen dit jaar...quote:
Jaar na de El nino kan het spokenquote:
quote:At least one person is dead and another is missing in Fiji in the wake of flooding brought on by Tropical Cyclone Zena.
The cyclone was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins at peak strength but has since weakened.
Satellite shows Tropical Cyclone Zena moving toward Fiji
Zena is impacting much of the same area that was inundated by Tropical Cyclone Winston in late February, the strongest ever to hit the island nation.
Fijians were under a nationwide curfew as of 6 p.m. local time Wednesday (2 a.m. EDT Wednesday), the government said on its Facebook page. All schools are also closed on Thursday.
A fatality and a missing person were reported in the western division of the island chain, the Fiji Times said. Thousands of other people were evacuated as a result of the cyclone.
A separate disturbance brought around 300 mm (12 inches) of rain to Nadi on Sunday and Monday causing flooding ahead of Tropical Cyclone Zena. Another 150 mm (6 inches) have fallen from Tuesday night into Wednesday from Zena.
Satellite imagery confirmed that Zena had strengthened markedly on Tuesday before weakening as it passed south of Fiji's main island.
Zena will likely dissipate near Tonga, on Thursday night or Friday, local time, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. The cyclone weakened when it passed over Tonga on Thursday morning, but schools, banks, and other other services were closed for the day, Tonga Police said.
quote:'Cold blob' to be a wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season
The potential movement of a 'cold blob' of water in the North Atlantic Ocean may be the wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, experts say.
The cold blob refers to a large, anomalous area of colder-than-normal sea-surface temperatures, located east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland.
"This area of colder water started to show up a few years ago and has become larger and more persistent during the past couple of years," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Whether or not ocean currents draw cold water from this blob southward into tropical regions of the Atlantic could determine how active the season becomes.
With all potential factors in mind, forecasters are predicting that tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic will total 14 this season, two more than what is considered normal.
If the cooler water migrates southward across the eastern Atlantic, then westward into tropical breeding grounds, it will lower sea-surface temperatures over the region where 85 percent of Atlantic tropical systems develop.
Another possibility is that the water from the cold blob could alter the makeup of deep ocean currents and affect the salinity of the water.
If this happens, the pattern of warming waters that has been occurring since 1995 will reverse, leading to a period of cooling.
Either of these scenarios would limit tropical development in the Atlantic.
If these scenarios don't occur, sea-surface temperatures will remain mostly warmer than normal, likely resulting in a season more active than in the past three years.
Should this be the case, experts believe the current El Niño will weaken, eventually leading to a neutral pattern by the end of the spring or early summer.
"The big question is whether we will go into a La Niña, which is what we're anticipating right now," Kottlowski said.
La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
When this occurs, less wind shear is found in the developmental regions of the Atlantic, increasing the potential for a higher-than-normal amount of tropical systems.
"Historically, some hurricane seasons that have followed a transition from El Niño to La Niña have been very active. It's possible we could flip from one extreme to the other, from below-normal seasons the past three years to an above-normal year in 2016," he said.
quote:How Fantala got so strong, and what lies ahead
Conditions were highly favorable for Fantala to intensify. Wind shear has been fairly low over the storm for the last couple of days, around 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures along Fantala’s track have been around 29 - 30°C, plenty warm for tropical development and roughly 1 to 2°C above average (see Figure 3 below). On the other hand, the heat content of the upper ocean has not been particularly large (see Figure 4), which implies that a storm as strong as Fantala could easily churn up cooler water. This makes it even more impressive that Fantala has managed to hang onto Category 4/5 strength for more than 48 hours, especially given its relatively slow motion.
After moving northwest for the last couple of days, Fantala is now crawling westward at about 4 knots as it embarks on a tight cyclonic loop that will turn its course around nearly 180 degrees to a southeast bearing. By late this week, Fantala may veer toward the southwest and could eventually approach Madagascar, though the JTWC projects it to be only a Category 1 or 2 cyclone by week’s end.
quote:Tropical Cyclone Amos is now nearing a direct strike on Samoa and at least a brush of American Samoa in what would be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect these areas in over three years.
A tropical cyclone warning remains in effect for the Independent state of Samoa while a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been posted for all of American Samoa, including Pago Pago.
Tropical Cyclone Amos earlier rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane, but fortunately appears to have levelled off its intensity as it approaches the islands.
quote:Quick cleanup in Samoa after Cyclone Amos
The head of Samoa's disaster management committee says access has been restored to areas cut off by Cyclone Amos on Saturday night.
It was feared the storm would strike Samoa as a large category four system, but it picked up speed and passed Samoa quickly as a category two.
Erika, Joaquin & Patriciatwitter:
. WKN / Tweehonderd gezinnen vermist na modderstromen Sri Lankaquote:
Gaat Florida dan eindelijk na tien jaar weer getroffen wordenquote:
Ploft nog best daarroquote:Op donderdag 2 juni 2016 13:47 schreef aloa het volgende:
En wat heeft 2 duimen en zit midden in het pad van dat monster?quote:
Dit kan de eerste grote klapper in jaren wordenquote:
HWRF laat het systeem nu na Jamaica toenemen in kracht en laat de koers nu meer zuidelijker gaan. Meer richting Honduras.quote:
Hmm, vrienden van me zitten nu nog in Mexico en keren vrijdag weer terug in NL. Hoop niet dat ze er te veel last van krijgen.quote:
Dan maar hopen dat het meevalt.quote:
Dan hebben mijn vrienden geluk.quote:
quote:Despite a slow start, experts are expecting hurricane season could still be a bit turbulent.
Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be the most active since 2012, which was the year Superstorm Sandy hit the East Coast.
In its 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 tropical storms, up from the initial prediction of 10 to 16 announced in May. The updated report, which comes at the start of peak hurricane season, expects five to eight of those to reach hurricane status, with two to four being major hurricanes.
The last hurricane to pass Hampton Roads was Sandy in 2012, one of 10 total that year. The 2012 season overall had above-average activity with 19 tropical storms, seven higher than is typical.
National Weather Service Meteorologist Jeff Orrock said Hampton Road hasn’t really seen hurricane conditions in 13 years.
“Irene was a little bit worse than Sandy, but that was still just a glancing blow,” Orrock said. “The last time we had anything close to hurricane force winds was Hurricane Isabel in 2003.”
quote:A strong ridge of high pressure will keep 99L headed north of due west over the next few days, and the storm should pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Tuesday night through Wednesday, track close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, and affect Hispaniola and the Southeastern Bahamas by Thursday. The uncertainty about the track increases greatly thereafter, as a weak trough of low pressure passing to the north of 99L late this week may be strong enough to turn the storm to the north before it can reach the U.S. East Coast. The track of 99L may also be affected late this week by tropical wave 90L (see below), which could grow into a hurricane that comes close enough to exert a steering influence.
99L has a lot of hurdles to overcome to become a named storm. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Thursday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, a relatively moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 28°C (83°F.) The total heat content of the ocean will steadily increase as 99L moves westwards, as well. But working against development of 99L will be the large size of the storm, dry air of the SAL, potential interaction with the land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and large scale sinking air over the tropical Atlantic imparted by an unfavorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The active portion of the MJO is currently located in the Western Pacific, which is leading to increased tropical cyclone activity there--three named storms were active there on Sunday morning. This positioning of the MJO typically leads to compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there.
None of the Sunday morning (00Z) operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European, GFS and UKMET models--showed development of 99L into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. However, beyond five days, when the storm will likely be near or just north of the central Bahamas, the models are predicting a more favorable environment for development. The 00Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European model ensembles had 5% and 12% of their members predicting that 99L would eventually become a hurricane, after seven days. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 50%, respectively.
quote:1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data from the
Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is located near Guadeloupe.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests from the islands
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mudslides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult
products issued by your local meteorological offices for further
welk ding bedoel je?quote:
Midden op de Atlantische oceaan hangt wat, flink stormpje.quote: