Crisis Oekraïne - Rusland #210 met weinig nieuwe ontwikkelingen

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Op zondag 5 juli 2015 10:36 schreef haags_kwartiertje het volgende:
Is het nu echt zo rustig daar al een paar weken, of zijn er gewoon gevechten nog die het nieuws niet weten te halen?

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The situation at and around the destroyed “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled Donetsk airport (12km north-west of Donetsk) remained volatile. The SMM – positioned at “DPR”-controlled Donetsk railway station (8km north-west of Donetsk) – heard during the day 152 explosions in the area.

The SMM – positioned at observation points near Shyrokyne (20km east of Mariupol) – noted no violence in the village. It did, however, hear nine mortar rounds and several bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire emanating from government-controlled Berdianske (2km south-west of Shyrokyne), and later, eight explosions in the far distance.

In “DPR”-controlled Snizhne (69km east of Donetsk), the SMM met the director of a factory producing equipment for the oil and gas industry. He said that the factory, despite being shelled last August, when one worker had been killed, was still operational. The factory, however, now employed only 400 people, compared to 1,000 before the conflict. Salaries, he added, had not been paid for three months.

The SMM noted 12 anti-tank mines on a road in an area controlled by the “Lugansk People’s Republic” (“LPR”) close to government-controlled Shchastia bridge (20km north of Luhansk).

The SMM noted two new Ukrainian Armed Forces checkpoints along the contact line, close to two government-controlled towns, Bakhmutivka and Muratove (40km and 50km north-west of Luhansk, respectively).

In government-controlled Stanytsia Luhanska (16km north-east of Luhansk), the SMM noted a house whose roof was damaged and windows shattered, caused by shelling. The owner claimed that Ukrainian Armed Forces routinely position tanks near the house and fire, which attracts fire upon the area.

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Spurned by the West, Georgians look to Russia despite past quarrels

TBILISI, Georgia — In this fiercely pro-Western nation that fought a brief war with Russia in 2008, few thought the Kremlin could ever regain a toehold. But with the West backing away from Georgia’s path to E.U. and NATO membership after a year of conflict in Ukraine, pro-Russian sentiments are on the rise.

The former Soviet nation’s leaders are warning that Russia may yet prevail if Georgia is shut out from Western clubs. Wary of further provoking Russia, Western politicians have quashed talk of NATO and the European Union expanding eastward anytime soon. Russia has stepped into the vacuum, increasing its presence by opening Georgian-language outlets of its state-owned news network and deepening investments in the energy industry and other key sectors.

Similar movements are happening in other former Eastern bloc nations trapped between Russia and the West, in a tug of war that has deep Cold War resonance.

“Stability and security cannot be maintained with this paradigm, with Russia’s paradigm of having special rights towards other countries,” said Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili, in an interview in the presidential palace on a bluff overlooking the old city of Tbilisi. The blue-and-gold E.U. flag flies outside of the building, as it does at most Georgian governmental buildings, as an emblem of the nation’s aspirations.

“Russia is working pretty actively, not only in Georgia, but all around the world” to expand its influence, he said. Despite the growing Russian presence, Georgia remains unshakably committed to eventual membership in NATO and the E.U., he said. As a token of its devotion, Georgia has sent more soldiers to Afghanistan to fight alongside U.S. troops in recent years than many nations already in NATO.

The germ of the present conflict between Russia and the West lies in an E.U. offer of closer ties to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s infuriated reaction. E.U. membership for Ukraine was always a long shot — but it has become even less likely after fighting that has killed more than 6,400 people, according to U.N. estimates.

E.U. leaders squabbled at a summit in May about whether to offer even the faintest prospects for membership to Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, which have said they want to join. The E.U. leaders decided against it, and they also delayed plans to ease visa rules for Georgian travelers, a bitter disappointment for Georgia’s leaders. The E.U. caution stemmed from a desire not to inspire backlash from Russia, diplomats involved in the discussions say.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has taken the role of the lead European interlocutor with Putin, has played down expansion prospects. So has President Obama.

“Neither Ukraine or Georgia are currently on a path to NATO membership. And there has not been any immediate plans for expansion of NATO’s membership,” Obama said last year.

Now support for pro-Russian politicians in Moldova and Georgia is growing, while Ukraine is so consumed by conflict that it has made little progress in instituting overhauls necessary for westward integration. Armenia, a fourth post-Soviet country that had been in talks with E.U. leaders about a trade deal, last year abandoned the discussions altogether, allying itself with the Russian camp.

Many here say that Russia has skillfully outmaneuvered the West.

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Germany and Russia Back to Business as Usual

Is the cold war between the West and Russia over Ukraine finished? For the United States certainly not. But Germany, and therefore much of the European Union, are returning to business as usual.

On June 22, the EU voted to extend sanctions against Russia. Yet in other areas, the relations between Germany and Russia are improving.

The biggest sign of this is the Nord Stream gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. That’s an important story in its own right—read Robert Morley’s article “Gazprom’s Dangerous New Nord Stream Gas Pipeline to Germany” if you’ve not done so already. The two countries have teamed up on a project that allows Russia to cut off gas to any Central or Eastern European country it wants to, while keeping its lucrative contracts with Western European customers intact.

This is far more than merely a business deal. Anything of this magnitude would have been discussed, and almost certainly approved, by the German government. In fact, it appears European governments may have done some serious behind-the-scenes maneuverings to make this happen.

Austria’s omv energy conglomerate has an important part in this deal. On June 3, it announced that Rainer Seele would be the new ceo. He officially started July 1. omv was once a key player in one of the pipelines designed to bypass Russia. But Seele is known to be pro-Russia. He is president of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce and has “good and close contacts with Russia and Gazprom” as Austria’s Die Presse newspaper puts it. On the same day that his position in omv was announced, he was visiting Gazprom’s headquarters. The Nord Stream pipeline is just one of several important deals with Russia that he is considering.

The Austrian state owns almost a third of omv. It wouldn’t have been hard for it to get together with a few more stakeholders to put in place the new ceo. More likely than not, the Austrian government just pushed its most important oil company in a new, pro-Russian direction. The new pipeline, therefore, is a clear sign that several European governments are open to business with Russia.
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Ukraine says five of its soldiers were killed and three wounded when a land mine exploded in the east of the country, where government troops are fighting Russia-backed separatists.

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Op zondag 5 juli 2015 00:07 schreef ZOA het volgende:

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Het is aan jezelf en jou verstand en niet aan mij om mijn uitspraken te beoordelen..
blijkbaar heb je daar wat moeite mee evenals het weerleggen ervan

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:42 schreef BEFEM het volgende:
Wat ik zo een beetje voorbij zie komen is dat ze in Oekraine nu wel wat aan de corruptie proberen te doen. Hopelijk heeft het ook effect, de weg is lang in ieder geval.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:43 schreef Slaro het volgende:

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Wij van de FIFA onderzoeken de misstanden binnen de FIFA.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:45 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Ja vast wel maar het is in ieder geval beter dan niks doen hé. Ik zeg niet voor niks dat er een lange weg te gaan is, als ze uberhaupt wel iets effectiefs aanpakken. Ik heb zelf ervaren hoe ver de corruptie gaat daar, dat heb je niet binnen 3 jaar eruit gehaald.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:44 schreef BEFEM het volgende:
Overigens staat de Roebel nu weer op het laagste niveau sinds Marinka en zo'n 15% lager dan het laagste niveau sinds december.

Verder is de olieprijs ook flink aan het zakken.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:50 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

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Is de roebel vandaag minstens 15% gezakt?

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:47 schreef Slaro het volgende:

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Het probleem is dat het dezelfde politici betreft die jarenlang hiervoor verantwoordelijk zijn geweest, overigens aan beide kanten van het politieke spectrum in dit land, er zou echt iemand van onderaf moeten komen maar oligarchen kopen in dit land gewoon stemmen dus dat blijft lastig.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:54 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Nee. 15% lager dan op z'n hoogste punt sinds december. Was 1/49 nu 1/57.5 Ten opzichte van de dollar tenminste.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:59 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:

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dacht al dat je hoogste ipv laagste bedoelde..
wilde de centrale bank geen koers van rond 56? Waren eerder dit jaar vreemde valuta beginnen inkopen omdat de roebel te sterk werd (in verhouding tot de olieprijs).

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 21:01 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Ja volgens mij haal ik wat door de war, snap het zelf ook ff niet meer Maar je snapt wat ik bedoel.

En dat weet ik niet, zou best kunnen. Heb je daar een bron van? Ik weet ook niet wat de huidige inflatiecijfers zijn in Rusland.

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While the Bank of Russia said its purchases of dollars last week were aimed at replenishing foreign-currency reserves, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley see curtailing the world’s biggest currency rally as the real motive. Options show traders pared the probability of the ruble strengthening beyond 49 per dollar to 41 percent from 44 percent by the end of June after the central bank began buying dollars Wednesday.

“This move from Russia’s central bank effectively indicates the ruble has returned to the dirty-float regime,” Yury Tulinov, the Moscow-based head of research at PAO Rosbank, Societe Generale SA’s Russian unit, said by e-mail on Friday. “The central bank’s real aim behind this move was to prevent the ruble strengthening beyond its fair value.”
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“It’s yet another sign that the Bank of Russia doesn’t like the ruble below 50 per dollar and is intent to use all tools available to prevent it,” Osakovskiy said by e-mail Friday.

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After strengthening to less than 49 per dollar in mid-May, the ruble has lost over 7 percent since the Central Bank announced last month it would start buying up to $200 million a day to replenish its foreign exchange reserves.

It is currently trading at around 55 per dollar, around 40 percent weaker than a year ago after plunging in tandem with oil prices in late 2014. That is in line with forecasts for 2015 by major companies such as LUKoil and Norilsk Nickel.
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"The Central Bank's forex purchases sent an important signal to the market that the ruble's strengthening speed at the time was too high," Sberbank CIB analyst Iskander Abdullaev said. "Of course, a weaker ruble is more of benefit for companies and the economy now and next year."

The Central Bank says it wants to boost reserves to around $500 billion over the next few years from $361.6 billion now. It is also expected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points next week, which would weaken the currency further.

"A strong ruble is not beneficial for anyone," noted Alexander Kornilov, an analyst with Alfa Bank.

Gazprom Neft, Russia's fourth-biggest oil producer, expects the ruble to trade at 50-65 per dollar this year but is changing its forecast by the month, chief financial officer Alexei Yankevich said last week.

LUKoil, Russia's No. 2 oil producer, has calculated its 2015 investment program based on a ruble rate of 55 per dollar, according to a presentation on its website.
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Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, who has said Russia's budget balances at an oil price of 3,600 rubles per barrel, said this week that ruble weakness was a long-term benefit for the economy.

"For a short period of time it created a lot of difficulties but for the long story it [a weak ruble] creates better conditions in terms of cost-to-income ratio," Ulyukayev told the BBC in an interview.

His ministry last month revised its FX forecast to an average of 60 rubles per dollar for 2015 and 56.8 for 2016.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 20:55 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Klopt. Dat maakt het er niet makkelijker op natuurlijk. Het is alleen niet mogelijk om iemand te vinden die het land kan leiden die níet corrupt is. Maar het lijkt er in ieder geval op dat ze het probleem erkennen, dat is stap 1.

Een lange weg te gaan...

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 21:34 schreef Slaro het volgende:

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Dat deden ze toch al, bovendien kunnen ze het lastig ontkennen, elke keer beloven ze corruptie aan te pakken dat deed onze blonde vriendin ook die daarna zelf behoorlijk corrupt bleek of in ieder geval tegenwoordig de schijn dus tegen heeft, corruptie aanpakken betekent in dit soort landen vaak ook de vrienden van politieke opponenten buitenspel zetten, vul zelf maar in ten voordele van wie dus.

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 21:12 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:
“This move from Russia’s central bank effectively indicates the ruble has returned to the dirty-float regime,” Yury Tulinov, the Moscow-based head of research at PAO Rosbank, Societe Generale SA’s Russian unit, said by e-mail on Friday. “The central bank’s real aim behind this move was to prevent the ruble strengthening beyond its fair value.”

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“This move from Russia’s central bank effectively indicates the ruble has returned to the dirty-float regime,” Yury Tulinov, the Moscow-based head of research at PAO Rosbank, Societe Generale SA’s Russian unit, said by e-mail on Friday. “The central bank’s real aim behind this move was to prevent the ruble strengthening beyond its fair value.”

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Op maandag 6 juli 2015 21:48 schreef BEFEM het volgende:

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Ja zoiets staat me ook bij de geest maar het is toch maar een raar verhaal zoals dit bijvoorbeeld:

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De Roebel heeft jaren tussen de 1/25 tot 1/35 gestaan. Nu zou opeens 1/55 een goede waarde zijn

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Overigens weet ik niet wat hun reserves momenteel zijn, de sancties en eerdere verdedigen van de Roebel heeft ze gigantisch veel geld gekost.

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US to pay salary for Saakashvili team in Odessa

Mikhail Saakashvili, the current Governor of Odessa in Ukraine has met with the American Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt.

Currently the Ukrainian politician and citizen agreed with the American Ambassador, that namely the US will fund his team.

Saakashvili will be provided with the American salary as well.

Further training of the Odessa police officers has also been discussed. Californian representatives should come to upgrade their skills.

Saakashvili wrote on his Facebook page, that the American government agreed to allocate money for the salaries of his new team in the framework of Odessa anti-corruption pressure.

Pravda.Ru has already reported, that Geoffrey Pyatt explained importance of the port city of Odessa, as "a laboratory for the American support of fundamental anti-corruption reforms".

http://english.pravda.ru/(...)sthash.mYSHfg7k.dpuf

twitter:

Rubiconski twitterde op zaterdag 30-05-2015 om 22:45:32 Natalia Poklonskaya, Prosecutor General of #Crimea by Sombra222 @ http://t.co/y5BywKpzRI http://t.co/voNWPFuw04 reageer retweet