Hurricane Season 2015 #1: Orkanen & cyclonen wereldwijd

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Op woensdag 14 januari 2015 11:14 schreef jatochneetoch het volgende:
Wat zou er gebeuren als er een flinke orkaan over Nederland gaat?

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Blijven onze huizen staan?

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Overstroomt het land?

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Op woensdag 14 januari 2015 11:44 schreef static het volgende:
Ga morgen naar Jakarta (vanuit Hong Kong); geloof dat er iets op de loer ligt bij de Filipijnen?

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Op woensdag 1 april 2015 08:17 schreef aloa het volgende:
De verwachting voor de Filipijnen is ook bijgesteld naar een cat 3 tijdens landfall.


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Isis en Odile geschrapt op namenlijst
De naam Isis wordt geschrapt van de lijst met orkaannamen. Isis was volgend jaar op de alfabetische lijst aan de beurt, maar de meteorologische dienst van de Verenigde Naties vindt vanwege de associatie met de terreurgroep Islamitische Staat (IS, ook wel ISIS of ISIL) een andere naam beter.

Isis wordt vervangen door Ivette. De 27 landen die bij het meteorologische dienst van de VN zijn aangesloten, hebben unaniem ingestemd met de naamswijziging.

Namen van orkanen staan van tevoren vast. Er wordt elke zes jaar een nieuwe alfabetische lijst afgewerkt.
Odile

Soms wordt een naam geschrapt als een eerdere orkaan met dezelfde naam veel slachtoffers heeft veroorzaakt of veel schade heeft aangericht.

Zo heeft Mexico gevraagd om de naam Odile van de namenlijst af te halen, omdat orkaan Odile in september veel overlast heeft veroorzaakt in het land. Tienduizenden toeristen werden geëvacueerd en Odile richtte flink wat schade aan. Odile is op de lijst Odalys geworden.

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Hurricane Blanca put on a furious display of rapid intensification this week, going from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Tuesday morning to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Wednesday morning--a remarkable 65 mph increase in winds in 24 hours, an intensification rate that is rarely seen. Blanca topped out at 140 mph winds on Wednesday afternoon, making it the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. It has been a remarkable run of early-season activity for the region, since just two days before that Hurricane Andres topped out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, becoming the second strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Only six Northeast Pacific major hurricanes have occurred prior to June 5 since accurate satellite records began in 1971, and two of them were this year:

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EricBlake12 twitterde op dinsdag 21-07-2015 om 07:06:47 The eye of #Halola seems to be clearing out, might verify some of those strong #typhoon models forecasts finally. http://t.co/LagTueQq2H reageer retweet

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Op maandag 13 juli 2015 16:57 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ziet er niet goed uit voor Japan...

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Op donderdag 30 juli 2015 22:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
27 doden door tropisch systeem bij Bangladesh

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http://www.weather.com/st(...)rticle_No_1_20150730

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Next UP: INVEST 96W

Another large, developing TC (INVEST 96W) is estimated near 18˚N/147˚E, still well east of the Mariana Islands, is likely to intensify into a Typhoon during the next 48 hrs as it’s already developing an outflow pattern aloft and is in an area of low shears and very warm SST’s.

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It looks like another event of Saharan dust will be over us for the next three to four days. It makes the sky appear milky white and the boundary of the clouds appears to be blending in with the milky white sky. During this Sahara dust ‘event’ it tends to significantly inhibit convective activity (thunderstorms and showers)-It doesn’t prevent them all together but it significantly lessens their activity. It also gives the sun a very noticeable 'red hue' especially at sunrise and sunset.

This is the same dust in the atmosphere that prevented significant tropical cyclone development for the last two years over the North Atlantic. All the haze shrouding The Bahamas this week may not be great for your health, but it has a major benefit: It helps stymie hurricanes and tropical storms. The haze actually is Saharan dust that drifted more than 4,000 miles from Africa, and abnormally heavy concentrations currently are blanketing the main region of the Atlantic where storms develop. The dust, denies the systems of their lifeblood - heat and moisture.

In The Bahamas, the dust is expected to remain thick, possibly for the rest of the week. It has lowered air quality from the good to moderate range. If you have extreme respiratory problems, stay inside air-conditioned facilities to minimize exposure. Anyone who works outside for any length of time also should be careful because of the combination of dust and high heat. Dust outbreaks occur when strong winds lift clouds of particles from the Sahara desert. Winds or tropical waves – areas of low pressure – then push the dust west across the Atlantic. Because the Sahara has been superheated this year, makin

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Op maandag 10 augustus 2015 08:14 schreef aloa het volgende:
Hilda op weg naar Hawaï.

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David vs. Goliath? 96L fights the El Niño factor
As of 2:00 pm EDT Monday, Invest 96L was located near 10°N and 31°W, moving west at about 10 mph. Located along a broad monsoon trough that coincides with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, 96L remains only loosely organized, with a large but unconsolidated area of showers and thunderstorms. Vertical wind shear is light (less than 10 knots), and 96L will encounter warmer sea-surface temperatures as it moves west-northwest (up to 28°C, or 82°F, by later this week), so the large-scale conditions favor gradual strengthening. The National Hurricane Center has been increasing the odds that 96L will develop: in its 8:00 am and 2:00 pm EDT updates, NHC gave the system a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next 5 days. The RAMMB/CIRA Tropical Genesis Index is also maintaining high odds for development. Among the favored models for intensity, the 1200 GMT Monday runs of the statistics-based LGEM and SHIPS models, which rely heavily on climatology, bring 96L to Category 2 strength by Thursday. The dynamics-based HWRF and GFDL models, which simulate tropical systems within nested high-resolution grids, diverge on the future of 96L. The HWRF develops 96L into a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday, while the GFDL fails to develop 96L significantly. As we discussed in last week’s post on tropical cyclone modeling, HWRF features a dramatic increase in resolution this year, so it will be interesting to see if it correctly pegs the fate of 96L.

While it seems that 96L has a reasonable shot at becoming a tropical storm (which would be named Danny), it also faces some obstacles. Foremost is a huge area of dry air and Saharan dust that extends across the tropical Atlantic just north of 96L's path. As the system grows in size and strength, it would become more likely to ingest some of the dry, dusty air, which would hinder shower and thunderstorm activity. 96L may also encounter an increasing amount of vertical wind shear as it approaches the longitude of the Leeward and Windward Islands this weekend, assuming it survives up to that point. Over the northern Caribbean, shear has actually lessened from the near-record values observed earlier this summer, although shear values of 20 to 40 knots continue to prevail across the southern Caribbean. The ever-strengthening El Niño favors westerly wind at upper levels across this region, though it's possible that the relative lull in shear over the northern Caribbean will continue as 96L approaches. A weak upper-level low is forecast to become pinched off near the Bahamas, south of a building ridge over the northwest Atlantic; this low could become a growing influence on 96L's track and intensity as it moves west of longitude 60°W.

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Lichte aardbeving treft Bay area

De Bay Area nabij de Californische stad San Francisco is gisteren door een aardbeving getroffen. Dat hebben het Amerikaanse Geofysisch Instituut USGS en het Europese aardbevingscentrum EMSC gemeld.
Volgens het USGS deed de beving met magnitude 4,0 zich voor om 15.19 uur Belgische tijd op 1 km van het Californische Piedmont. Het epicentrum bevond zich op 5,4 km diepte, volgens het EMSC 18 km ten noordoosten van San Francisco.

Luidens de krant San Francisco Chronicle is de beving in die stad, in Oakland en verder landinwaarts van de Bay Area gevoeld.

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Eastern Atlantic / Africa

There are more systems in the pipeline, coming off of Africa.

NHC is already highlighting the western one and has upped the probability of becoming at least a tropical depression within the next five days.

If this observation from earlier this afternoon is correct, there's already a northwest wind around that side of the disturbance, meaning it has or is getting close to having a "closed" (fully circular) surface circulation already, and models predict that if it doesn't yet, it will soon.

And then latest model runs are consistent in showing it taking a track next week not too far from Danny's.

The one after that will come off the African coast this weekend, and looks to be healthy and have some chance to further develop too. Models are vacillating between a quickly out-to-sea track and one farther west.

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Op dinsdag 25 augustus 2015 12:02 schreef aloa het volgende:
EC brengt Erika dicht bij de oostkust.
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Op dinsdag 25 augustus 2015 12:14 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Klopt! Het is nu nog wel het enige model wat het laat zien.

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00z run of the ECMWF is very concerning. It agrees with the HWRF and has a Category 4 hurricane off the SE Coast.

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Ignacio may threaten Hawaii early next week

Residents of Hawaii need to keep close tabs on Hurricane Ignacio, which was packing top sustained winds of 90 mph as of 5:00 pm HST (11:00 pm EDT) Thursday. Now located just under 1000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Ignacio is on a fairly straightforward west-northwest course that should continue over the next several days. Simply extrapolating Ignacio’s track would bring the hurricane very close to Hawaii by Monday or Tuesday. Hurricanes on such a course typically weaken before they reach the islands, traveling over surface waters near the threshold for tropical development of around 26°C (79°F). In this case, Ignacio is getting a boost from favorable upper-level conditions as well as unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, roughly 2°C (3.8°F) above average for this time of year. NHC intensifies Ignacio to just short of Category 3 strength by this weekend, then gradually weakens it starting on Monday. The official forecast calls for Hurricane Ignacio to pass about 100 miles north of Hilo on Tuesday as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 - 90 mph. No hurricane has ever been officially recorded on the Big Island of Hawaii--the strongest event on record was Tropical Storm Iselle in 2014--so today’s forecast is noteworthy in itself. Beyond the five-day period, models are tending to bend Ignacio’s track slightly leftward, as upper-level ridging strengths to the north. The predicted steering currents and the very warm SSTs make Ignacio a force to be reckoned with, and all of the Hawaiian islands should take this hurricane seriously. Large swells will become a near-certainty over the next few days.

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Op dinsdag 1 september 2015 10:33 schreef deleriouz het volgende:
Erika was vooral erg nat. Wachten is op Fred de komende tien dagen, en daarna westwaards naar huis.

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New tropical wave expected to emerge from Africa on Thursday

A tropical wave currently over west-central Africa is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, at a location a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde islands. The Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model predicted some slow development of this wave late in the week as it moves west at 15 - 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, depicted an atmosphere with higher wind shear, and little or no development of the new tropical wave. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

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New study reveals the possibility of hurricanes ‘unlike anything you’ve seen in history’

Last week, the nation focused its attention on the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the most destructive hurricane in U.S. history. As bad as the storm was, though, it wasn’t the worst storm that could have possibly hit New Orleans.

That’s true of many, many other places, too. And now, in a new study in Nature Climate Change, Princeton’s Ning Lin and MIT’s Kerry Emanuel demonstrate that when it comes to three global cities in particular — Tampa, Fla., Cairns, Australia, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates — there could come a storm that is much worse than anything in recent memory (or in any memory).

Granted, these theoretical storms are also highly unlikely to occur — in some cases, they are 1-in-10,000-year events, or even rarer. The researchers refer to these possible storms as “gray swans,” riffing on the concept of a “black swan” event, an unpredictable catastrophe, or highly impactful event. A “gray swan,” by contrast, can indeed be predicted, even if it is extremely rare.

The purpose of the study is “to raise awareness of what a very low probability, very high impact hurricane event might look like,” said Emanuel. The gray swan storms were generated by a computer model that “coupled” together, in the researchers’ parlance, a very high-resolution hurricane model with a global climate model. That allowed the researchers to populate the simulated world with oodles of different storms.

“When you do hundreds and hundreds of thousands of events, you’re going to see hurricanes that are unlike anything you’ve seen in history,” said Emanuel, a key theoretician behind the equations determining the “maximum potential intensity” of a hurricane in a given climate. Indeed, he has published in the past that a theoretical “hypercane” with winds approaching 500 miles per hour is possible in scenarios where an asteroid hits the Earth and radically heats up ocean waters, far beyond their normal temperature.

So what did the researchers see? Let’s take Tampa Bay, first. It hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane since 1921 — but that storm drove a 3- to 3.5-meter (10- to 11-foot) storm surge and caused dramatic damage. Earlier, in 1848, another storm produced a 4.6-meter surge (about 15 feet).

Why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable? Check out any good map that shows the water depth (the bathymetry) around the Florida peninsula. It’s deep off the east coast. But there’s an extraordinarily broad continental shelf off the west coast. And although the city of Tampa, proper, sits at the head of Tampa Bay, relatively far from the mouth and well removed from the barrier islands that get battered by the waves from the Gulf of Mexico, that’s a more vulnerable spot than you’d think.

“One can get much larger surges where the offshore waters are shallow, as is true along the west, but not the east coast of Florida. Also, surges can amplify by being funneled into bays,” Emanuel said Monday in an e-mail.

The new method allows the researchers to show that a worse storm than these historical examples is possible, especially with sea level rise and global warming. They simulated 2,100 possible Tampa Bay hurricanes in the current climate, and then 3,100 each for three time periods (2006 through 2036, 2037 through 2067, and 2068 through 2098) in an unchecked global warming scenario.

In the current climate, the study found that a 5.9-meter (19-foot) storm surge is possible, in a strong Category 3 hurricane following a similar track to Tampa’s classic 1921 and 1848 storms. Moreover, in a late 21st century climate with global warming run amok, the worst-case scenario generated by the model included a very different storm track, moving north along Florida’s Gulf Coast and then swerving inland at Tampa, that generated an 11.1-meter (nearly 37-foot) surge.

Granted, the study said that these two “gray swans” are exceedingly unlikely — less than 1 in 10,000 years for the 5.9-meter surge in the current climate. But it also said that global warming shifts the odds toward the worse surges.

“The more publicity of the hurricane risk in Tampa, the better,” Emanuel said.

The study also shows that for Cairns, Australia, a 5.7-meter (18-foot) storm surge is possible in the current climate, but that would happen less than once in 10,000 years. And perhaps most strikingly, it also suggests that an extremely powerful hurricane is theoretically possible where we’ve never yet seen them occur — the Persian Gulf.

The waters in the Persian Gulf are very hot and so contain considerable potential hurricane energy, but the atmosphere is normally too dry for hurricanes, Emanuel explained. Nonetheless, “physics says that you can have one,” he said. “‘It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible.”

Indeed, there have been several hurricanes or tropical storms that have entered the Arabian Sea, though none have made it into the Persian Gulf. But the study showed that in extraordinarily rare circumstances, it’s also possible for a hurricane to be generated there.

Indeed, it found that with 3,100 simulated events in today’s climate, it is theoretically possible to get a hurricane with winds of over 250 miles per hour — stronger than anything we’ve seen on Earth — and a storm surge of 7.4 meters (24 feet) affecting Dubai. Granted, it is hard to emphasize enough that this is a rare phenomenon — storms like this have “return periods of the order of 30,000–200,000 years,” the study said.

So, is all of this just a mathematical exercise — or something more? In the end, it’s kind of in the eye of the beholder, as it’s up to us to decide how much to worry, if at all, about an extraordinarily rare event. But you could make the case that a study like this helps us think a lot better about what risk is all about.

“You go out on the tail, the risk gets tinier and tinier and tinier, but the consequences of that event get exponentially larger,” Emanuel said.

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Another healthy wave coming off Africa
African continues to generate an impressive supply of easterly waves that have at least a chance of developing into tropical cyclones as they move into the Atlantic. Our next tropical wave is in the process of moving from West Africa into the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude (see Figure 1 above). SSTs remain unusually high in this region, and I expect we will see this wave emerge into a tropical depression and perhaps become Tropical Storm Henri late this week. Once again, the tendency for high wind shear from the Caribbean northeastward will greatly reduce the odds that any tropical cyclone from the deep Atlantic tropics might approach North America relatively intact.

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Two Major Hurricane Lindas separated by 18 years. Active on about the same dates/region. Each during strong El Ninos.

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/641367967259848704/photo/1

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New African tropical wave worth watching
A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Thursday has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westwards across the Atlantic at about 15 mph. Though the wave does not yet have much spin or heavy thunderstorm activity, conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 27.5 - 28.5°C (82 - 84°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the north of the disturbance. One of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, forecasted in its 00Z Thursday run that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Sunday. Many of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble forecast also predicted development, though the operational high-resolution version of the GFS model did not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. This wave looks less likely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands than the waves that spawned Grace, Erika, and Danny, but it is too early to be confident of this.

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Op woensdag 16 september 2015 12:03 schreef heywoodu het volgende:

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Daar ben ik ook wel benieuwd naar

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Om spoilers te kunnen lezen moet je zijn ingelogd. Je moet je daarvoor eerst gratis Registreren. Ook kun je spoilers niet lezen als je een ban hebt.

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Op vrijdag 18 september 2015 16:30 schreef aloa het volgende:
Gfs komt ook weer met een systeem voor de oostkust.

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op dinsdag 29-09-2015 om 09:01:35 Wild Euro scenario Fujiwara effect as it turns Joaquin out, but grabs Re stored Ida and pulls her in. Bottom line, big trouble lurking reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op dinsdag 29-09-2015 om 09:03:04 Ida should stage comeback.. though I dont know if it gets drawn all the way in. Even without these systems potent problemsE Coast this week reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op dinsdag 29-09-2015 om 09:04:42 Hybrid absorption of storms and crazy tracks common el nino years. 2 in 1991. How about Ginny track 1963?https://t.co/4QVLubtCdv reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op dinsdag 29-09-2015 om 09:06:58 Bottom line with this kind of SST anomaly, you dont write off the hurricane season, el nino or not http://t.co/5nluzxJm8I reageer retweet

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BigJoeBastardi twitterde op dinsdag 29-09-2015 om 09:09:47 ECWMF not playing around with intensity, think this goes to cat 2 or 3 at least as wsw track will take it to area where shear relaxes reageer retweet