Hurricane Season 2014: Orkanen & Cyclonen

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Residents of the Philippines are being put on alert for possible future impacts from Tropical Depression 05W, which is on pace to strengthen into a tropical storm and even a typhoon.

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak is especially concerned for impacts across the southern Philippines given how unusually far south in the western Pacific Ocean the depression developed.

"[The southern Philippines] do not get hit by tropical systems very often," stated Wanenchak. The majority of tropical storms and typhoons form too far to the north to take aim at these islands.

Wanenchak expects the depression's track, through the point of landfall, to mirror Super Typhoon Bopha from late 2012 closely. Bopha slammed into the island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

The good news is that a repeat of Bopha's super typhoon status is not expected. However, the warm waters of the Pacific and the absence of disruptive wind shear will allow the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm.

http://www.accuweather.co(...)alert-for-f/25205042

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Thousands left homeless after Solomon Islands storm

Thousands of people have been left homeless and dozens are still missing after a devastating storm in the Solomon Islands.

The death toll from the flooding currently stands at 17 people as heavy rain caused the Mataniko River to burst its banks, washing away houses, according to The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. However, the death toll is expected to rise with dozens of people, including children, still missing.

Donald Burgess, Water, Sanitation and Health Specialist for UNICEF in the Solomon Islands says they are expecting more people to seek shelter one of the 14 official evacuation centres currently set up as rains subside.

UN officials estimate 5,000 people are already in evacuation centres, several of which are local schools, after whole neighbourhoods were submerged in the hard-hit capital of Honiara.

"The biggest challenge for UNICEF in the coming days will be ensuring that systems are set up at these centres so that the people there have access to safe water and sanitation," Mr Burgess says.

"Some of the schools being used as evacuation centres currently only have 4 or 5 toilets and are not built to withstand a sudden influx of people such as this."

A state of emergency has been declared and 17 New Zealand police officers, already in Honiara, are now helping Solomon Islands police with the aftermath.

MFAT says the storm has damaged houses, roads and bridges. Powerlines are down and the airport is currently closed, with authorities working to reopen it. An estimated 1,000 people are sheltering in the terminal.

Swollen rivers and debris is cutting off access to many villages so it has been difficult for relief agencies to know just how many people are affected.

A helicopter flyover revealed the capital's infrastructure has been extremely badly damaged. Sewerage pipes have been broken and there's no water access.
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Relief agencies are now concerned disease may spread as water level recede.

"The government has gone into some of the evacuation centres today to do a sanitation and water assessment, to see what some of the needs of the people are there and I guess in terms of health that will be an issue as well," says Oxfam's Katie Greenwood.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade says 147 New Zealanders are registered as being in the Solomon Islands. New Zealand has already announced it will provide $300,000 in aid.

A tropical storm alert is still in place for the Western, Malaita, Makira, Central and Guadalcanal provinces. The weather system is slowly moving and intensifying bringing with it yet more heavy rain and coastal flooding.

Earthquake strikes

Meanwhile a strong 6.0-magnitude earthquake has also struck the Solomon Islands, the US Geological Survey said.

The tremor was at a depth of 63 kilometres and centred 30km west of the city of Kirakira.

The US Geological Survey issued a "green alert", indicating there was a low likelihood of casualties and damage.

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-n(...)slands-storm-5886451

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The deep tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much-less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a concern, along with the oncoming El Niño conditions. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors stronger storms (relative to normals) in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics.

The ECMWF model is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012, but wasn't too accurate that year). This year, the ECMWF March tropical forecast is lower than those years.

What is different is that the ECMWF model has a forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! We have been in awe at the lack of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle to the 1950s. While Irene and Sandy have drawn significant attention, they were nothing compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950s or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern seaboard, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the deep tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N, so there is strong historical support for the ECMWF's idea.

The combination of dry air, what looks to be a relatively colder AMO index, a poor setup for the Indian Ocean wave train, and the oncoming El Niño all argue against higher than normal frequency in the deep tropics. We think this a challenging year, one that has a greater threat of higher intensity storms closer to the coast, and, where like 2012, warnings will frequently be issued with the first official NHC advisory.

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:49 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Volgend jaar kon het wel eens los gaan als die El Nino doorzet.

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:54 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

dat kan ja