Hurricane Season 2014: Orkanen & Cyclonen

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Tonga prepares for catastrophic winds
‘Catastrophic’ winds are being predicted by Fijian forecasters for the northern parts of the Pacific Island of Tonga.

Cyclone Ian has been labelled a Category 4 Cyclone system. It is packing winds up to 170 kilometres per hour, and gusts have reported to be up to 230 kilometres per hour.

Vava'u_beach2
Vava’u, Tonga, where Cyclone Ian is predicted to hit hardest.

People in the regions of Vava’u and Niaofo’ou are boarding windows and clamping down outside furniture. Around 100 tourists are in the areas predicted to be worst hit.

‘On our island and the small outer islands here, there are between 10,000 to 12,000 people. And right now there are now many tourists, maybe 100′, Kjelll Stayv, owner of a small hotel in the northern region of Tonga told local media.

The Tonga Meteorological Service re-issued warnings on Wednesday local time, after cancelling a cyclone alert for the same region on Tuesday. The alert warned of gale force winds, thunderstorms and the risk of sea flooding.

Forecasters say Cyclone Ian will bring ‘a lot of damage to the Kingdom.’

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Op dinsdag 14 januari 2014 12:39 schreef Turbomuis het volgende:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa

Was die niks voor de OP?

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An early start to hurricane season? “Subtropical” storm may be forming…

Tropical storms have occurred during every month in the Atlantic, but January storms are rare. Today, Subtropical Storm Arthur could be forming about 2,000 miles east of the Bahamas.



The official Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1 through November 30, but nature does not always obey our arbitrary boundaries. On average, about 97% of tropical cyclone activity falls within the official hurricane season, while the remaining 3% is spread out among the six off-season months. Looking back to 1851, only two known storms have formed during January: Hurricane #1 in 1938 (formed January 3), and Subtropical Storm #1 in 1978 (formed on January 18).
The low pressure system shown in the satellite image above is mostly located in the middle and upper parts of the atmosphere, with just a hint of a presence at the surface. The surface low is centered near 24N 42W, and as of 7 am EDT this morning, it was analyzed at 1010 mb (29.82″).



Every model I looked at develops this in the short term, and although it may not meet the structural requirements for a tropical cyclone, it could easily meet the requirements for a subtropical cyclone (what is a subtropical cyclone?). Conditions should remain marginally favorable for this system to maintain itself for about the next 4-5 days before it gets absorbed into a mid-latitude front.
If this system does acquire enough organization and surface winds increase to 40 mph, it would earn the first name on the 2014 list: Arthur. It is not and will not be a threat to land.

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El Nino may tame Atlantic Hurricanes
There are indications that an El Niño is on the way for the middle and latter parts of 2014. The phenomenon may impact the weather in portions of the United States, starting this summer.

Fluctuations in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean have been observed and recorded for approximately the past 60 years. These fluctuations are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. When the waters are cooler than average for a several-month period, the event is called La Niña. Opposingly, when the waters are warmer than average over several months, the event is called El Niño.

According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are confident that an El Niño is in the early stages of developing and may reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of 2014."

While El Niño will not have an impact on this spring and summer's severe weather, it may come on early enough and strong enough to have impact on the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Disruptive winds, known as wind shear, often develop off the Atlantic coast of the United States and sweep over a large part of the basin during El Niño.
"It is possible that a budding El Niño and developing wind shear may truncate the number of hurricanes originating from near the west coast of Africa during the middle and latter part of the season," Paquette said.

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El Nino to show in time for Atlantic season?
El Nino to show in time for Atlantic hurricane season? It's just one factor for forecasters

Well, the first omen of the coming hurricane season is a good one: El Nino looks like he's ready to stick his head up.But don't put your shutters away just yet.

"While all (computer) models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Nino will develop during summer or fall," the federal Climate Prediction Center cautions.

El Nino is a warming trend in the Pacific that creates shear winds in this hemisphere - the sort of winds that strip apart hurricanes.

El Ninos are generally good things. A recent federal study of more than a half-century of storms found a correlation between the number of hurricanes and El Nino or cooler water La Nina years. Both devastating Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and the near-miss Lowcountry swipe by Hurricane Floyd in 1999 occurred during strong La Nina years.

But forecasters are beginning to suspect just where and how warm the waters get play bigger roles in Atlantic conditions than the simple emergence of an El Nino. And the phenomenon is just one in a roulette wheel of climate factors that determine the storm season. For example, shear winds persisted in the Atlantic last summer, despite the absence of an El Nino, leading to a quiet season that baffled forecasters so completely they continued to call for a late season surge in storms even as few developed.

In fact, the long range computer modelling that now suggests a late summer El Nino is itself suspect. Long range predictions are what weather pros call "low confidence" forecast.

"The models have been totally wrong with El Nino predictions before," said Mark Malsick, S.C. Climate Office severe weather liaison. "The general (carved in Jello) rule of thumb is that the number of North Atlantic hurricanes is reduced during an El Nino; however, the hurricane threat to the South Carolina is not eliminated."

It is, in other words, way too early to say.

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Solomon Islands flooding
At least 16 people are dead in the Solomon Islands after torrential rain from a slow moving tropical cyclone caused rivers to burst their banks and send a torrent of water rushing downstream into low-lying, highly populated areas.

Water from the Matanikau river destroyed bridges, homes and other infrastructure as it inundated the downtown area of the Solomon Islands' capital of Honiara, Al Jazeera reports. Homes and bodies could be seen floating amongst the debris carried away by the floods.

At least 40 people were reportedly still missing, but officials had little hope that they would be found.

"The last report we had was there are 16 in the mortuary and at least 40 still missing, most of them children and it's very unlikely they'll be found alive," Save the Children's emergency manager Graham Kenna told Al Jazeera.

Red Cross secretary general in the Soloman Islands Joanne Zoleveke told Al Jazeera that the river burst its banks rather unexpectedly, despite days of heavy rain, catching people off guard in the city of some 70,000 people.

"We were watching the river but never expected it to rise so fast. It took us by surprise. That is why there are deaths," Zoleveke told Al Jazeera.

Tragic tales of individuals being swept away by the powerful currents were all too common.

"My staff has witnessed a child being swept away by the floodwaters," World Vision's Emergency Response Manager Lawrence Hillary told Al Jazeera. "They are devastated by what they have witnessed."

Tropical Cyclone Peipah
The tropical cyclone that flooded the Solomon Islands is now named Peipah. It is slowly churning west toward the Philippines. The map above shows the latest forecast path.

However, flooding wasn't just limited to the city of Honiara. Surrounding areas in the country's main island of Guadalcanal also experienced record flooding.

"We were starting to receive phone calls also from outside of Honiara as far as the northern part right in the middle of the Guadalcanal Plains of people having to resort to climbing over roofs... to seek shelter from the flooding rivers around them," Yates told Australia Network News.

In one such case, the Solomon Star reports that the body of a student who fell into a river on Thursday was recovered all the way out at sea on Saturday.

Solomon Islands' government spokesman George Herming told the Associated Press that up to 15,000 people are homeless after their homes were flooded or destroyed. Thousands flocked to 16 evacuation centers on higher ground, the New Zealand Herald reports.

Worse yet, with so many people coalescing in evacuation centers, emergency workers fear the lack of sanitation services and fresh water could lead to an outbreak of disease in camps.

Officials in New Zealand and Australia have already pledged funds to aid those in the Solomon Islands, but with so many still missing, the recovery effort is only just beginning.

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5th named storm since Januari 1st, first time in 43 years

Tropical Depression 06W (former 99W) intensified into Tropical Storm TAPAH (T1405) near Guam this morning… It’s the fifth one since 2014-01-01… The last time we had 5 named storms in the first 4 months of the year… was 1971… 43 years ago…

Maximum sustained wind speed around TAPAH’s centre is estimated to be 75 km/h (40 kts)… An upper level trough to the northeast of TAPAH is boosting convective development… The storm should intensify slightly in the coming 36 hours as poleward outflow remains nice and vertical wind shear is favourable to sustain the storm’s convection… Afterwards… decreasing sea surface temperatures, weakening divergent flow and increasing wind shear should start to lower TAPAH;s intensity…

TS TAPAH will move poleward around the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge… A turn to the north-northwest is expected tomorrow as the trough lifts and the ridge re-strengthens…

Residents in the Marianas should pay attention to the weather warnings issued by NWS Guam…

TAPAH is not a threat to the Philippines, Taiwan or China…

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:54 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Volgens jaar dan een La Nina...?

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Op donderdag 1 mei 2014 16:56 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Ze verwachten nu 2 orkanen die landfall gaan maken. Als ik het goed heb maakt de oostkust de meeste kans daarop.
We zullen zien...begint over een maand.

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...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3 USED
TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE MIGRATING FROM 26N-27N THU TO NEAR
29N-30N. THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE
AREA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT A WEAK LOW
PRES CLOSING OFF IN DIFFERENT AREAS AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
STARTING LATE SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW ORIGINATES FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MIGRATES SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. FORECAST
FOLLOWS A GFS- ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW
PRES SEEMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. MWW3 FAVORED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

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Op donderdag 3 juli 2014 08:49 schreef Sj0rSz het volgende:
http://nos.nl/op3/artikel(...)sem-in-new-york.html

Mooie platen vanuit New York

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Op donderdag 3 juli 2014 07:50 schreef aloa het volgende:

twitter:

robertspeta twitterde op donderdag 03-07-2014 om 09:37:35 ECMWF 00Z run showing worst case scenario in Okinawa Tuesday. Not a forecast but something that could happen. reageer retweet

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Op donderdag 3 juli 2014 09:50 schreef Sj0rSz het volgende:

[..]

Ohh, er wordt in het artikel wel naar gerefereerd Anders had ik hem niet gepost

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Arthur's greatest threat may be rip currents

As Arthur gyrates up the East Coast, beachfront Fourth of July celebrations are falling flat, and that could save lives. Even if Arthur goes down in weather history as a milksop of a cyclone, it may have some lethal tricks up its sleeve.

On Thursday, the first named tropical storm of the season is expected to graduate to hurricane status, as it grinds the shoreline of North Carolina, the National Weather Service said.

Death in the surf
Arthur may only reach the level of a weak Category 1 hurricane and finish its pass of North Carolina by the end of Thursday, but it could leave a danger lurking beneath the surf: Rip currents.

Anyone in North Carolina should stay out of the water, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers warns.
"There's no time for you to react. That's why you can't be there at all," Myers said. "This is not a landfall-problem hurricane. This is a rip-current-problem hurricane," he said.

North Carolina Gov. Pat McCory agrees. He tells those who plan to hit the beaches: "Don't put your stupid hat on" and stay out of the ocean. "I don't want you to put at risk not only yourself but also people who may try to help you, especially our emergency operation workers," he told journalists.
Tropical cyclones killed six people in 2009, the National Weather Service said. All of them drowned in large waves or rip currents produced by storm surges.

The cyclones, which can spawn treacherous flows that haul victims out to sea, can be far out of sight and mind. In 2008, one storm drowned three people from half an ocean away.

Hurricane Bertha was 1,000 miles from the New Jersey shore when it generated fatal rip currents. At Ocean City, Maryland, the back-flowing water from Bertha triggered 1,500 lifeguard rescues in one week's time.

Holiday plans spoiled
Carolina preps for Arthur Tropical storm could drench July 4th Impacts of Tropical Storm Arthur
The town of Surf City, right on the Atlantic, is scrapping its Fourth of July show, which was scheduled for Thursday. It will move the party down a few weeks to mark a different occasion.
"We are going to reschedule the band and fireworks for an end of summer celebration on August 29th, 2014," a statement on the city's website said.

But the city also said it expects the storm's fury to be short-lived and encourages visitors to keep their beach vacation plans. "Surf City is very much open for business," the town said.
The holiday is an important time for business on the coast, one owner said. The income pads them, helps them stay open.

Vacationers should not understand the warm welcome as an all-clear. To avoid tragedy, they should think twice about going for a swim, experts warn.
Lucky survivor

The weather service publishes a page of the stories people tell after surviving a rip current.
Three summers ago, a surfer the National Weather Service calls "Greg" watched his wife, standing on the beach, get smaller and smaller, as a rip current swept him away.

He fought it.
"I tried to swim with the boogie board at first, but if you've ever tried to do that you know that won't work," he said. Luckily he remembered what to do. He swam parallel to the shoreline until he was out of the current. Then he paddled for the beach. He was so exhausted when he arrived, that he collapsed onto the sand. "I kissed the ground," he said. Rip currents are caused by storm surges, which push water up onto the beach. "That volume of the water that's coming in has to return to the sea somehow," lifeguard Mike Taylor tells CNN affiliate WSAV. It flows back out with mighty force but is very hard to see.

Surge and evacuation
Storm surges can also cause flooding, and Arthur is expected to push the water level two to four feet higher than normal at North Carolina's Outer Banks.
"The surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves," the weather service said.
Authorities issued a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island and a voluntary evacuation order for Ocracoke Island. When a storm hits, it's also hard to get out of the Outer Banks by car.
And traveling in the driving rain is dangerous, no matter which storm causes it. Forecasters said Arthur will dump two to four inches in most parts of the coastline and up to six inches in isolated spots.

Not worried
"No lifeguard on duty," read a sign on a pier at Atlantic Beach, North Carolina. As gulls hovered over anglers, beach goers on Wednesday listened to waves gently crashing, and the sun browned their skin.

Few seemed worried about Arthur.
"People know what to do -- board up the windows," one man told CNN affiliate WFMY. "But a Category 1 ain't bad." A shirtless beachcomber in a broad-brimmed straw hat was downright adventurous about its approach. "I've lived long enough to know that new experiences are always fun, so you've got to live them, and this might really be fun and might be scary, but we're going to find out after a while," he said. Down the shore in Charleston, South Carolina, the cruise ship Carnival Fantasy made ready for a wedding out on deck on Wednesday.

After the reception, "those of us that aren't cruising are getting off the boat and everybody else is preparing to depart," a man in a tux with a lime green vest and bow tie told CNN affiliate WCIV.
Crazy? No, said AAA spokeswoman Mary Smith. Ships can deal with such storms. "Plan on being on the inside of the ship," she said. Staff will keep you entertained.

Birthplace of the nation
Parts of our nation's birthplace in New England will be wet on Friday, and the annual Fourth of July Boston Pops concert is being moved up a day to Thursday. If there's rain, the fireworks part of the show can start, but the concert may have to go.
"The rain is a factor for the orchestra," event organizer Rich MacDonald told CNN affiliate WCVB. "It affects the instruments and these instruments are valuable and old." In the nation's capital, the weather looks cheerier for the holiday. The slight chance of rain during the day Friday will vanish by night. Then the "rocket's red glare" will take to a mostly clear sky "bursting in air" over Washington's National Mall, where the colorful, fiery blossoms will shine in the Reflecting Pool to a large live, crowd of patriots.

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Op donderdag 3 juli 2014 10:33 schreef Sj0rSz het volgende:

[..]

Ahh, dat verklaart een hoop Thnx!

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ELSEWHERE in the Atlantic, there are 2 Tropical Waves over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic that have brought along more ‘moisture laden air’ (versus dry, Saharan air). In addition, there are now several somewhat stronger appearing Tropical waves upstream over Africa (only 2 are shown in Fig 9) that will reach the Atlantic later this week and early next week, with one of these systems having a significantly higher potential for development next week.

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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Shower activity has increased and become a little
better organized during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Al 5 'major hurricanes' (categorie 3 of meer) dit seizoen boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific
Cristobal op weg naar orkaanstatus maar Marie, boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific, imponeert met windsnelheden (zondag) tot 260 km/uur en een kerndruk van 918 hPa. Een heuse categorie 5 orkaan dus!

Ter hoogte van de zuidelijke Bahamas bevindt zich momenteel de derde tropische storm van het seizoen: Cristobal. De verwachting is dat Cristobal de komende 24 uur geleidelijk aanzwelt tot een orkaan van de eerste categorie. Hoewel de potentiële orkaan geen aspiraties heeft om naar de Amerikaanse oostkust op te stomen, moeten de kustbewoners (en vakantiegangers) van de staten Florida en North- en South-Carolina rekening houden met krachtige en gevaarlijke stromingen en een fikse deining.

Van een geheel andere orde dan Cristobal is ‘major hurricane’ Marie boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific. Deze tropische creatie bereikte zondag om 14 uur lokale tijd (23 uur bij ons) de hoogste status op de Saffir-Simpson orkanenschaal. Met windsnelheden tot gemiddeld 260 km/uur (maximum sustained winds) en een laagste luchtdruk van 918 hPa een ‘hurricane’ van de 5de categorie dus. Bovendien werd het de krachtigste ‘Eastern Pacific Hurricane’ sinds Celia in 2010. Marie neemt inmiddels, op 750 kilometer ten zuidwesten van het zuidelijkste puntje van het Mexicaanse schiereiland Baja California, iets in betekenis af. Het is nu met 230 km/uur en een luchtdruk van 932 hPa een orkaan van de 4de categorie. Marie blijft boven open zee maar de vochtvelden kunnen in de staten Arizona, New Mexico en Texas de komend tijd flink wat regen en overstromingen veroorzaken. Verder grote golven en heftige stromingen langs de Mexicaanse westkust.

Categorie 5 orkaan Marie boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific, zondag 24 augustus (bron: NOAA)
Categorie 5 orkaan Marie boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific, zondag 24 augustus (bron: NOAA)
Marie is de 13de tropische storm/orkaan van het seizoen en de 5de ‘major hurricane’ (tenminste categorie 3). Andere zwaargewichten waren onder meer Amanda in mei en Cristina in juni. Over Amanda valt op te merken dat dit systeem op zondag 25 mei met gemiddelde windsnelheden tot 250 km/uur en een barometerstand van 932 hPa uitgroeide tot de krachtigste orkaan ooit in de maand mei boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific. Naast Marie is momenteel ook Karina nog actief boven de oostelijke Pacific. In het totale seizoen, van mei tot december, komen er boven het oostelijk deel van de Pacific gemiddeld 15 ‘named storms’ tot ontwikkling. Met nog enkele maanden te gaan is de kans groot dat het er veel meer zullen

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Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of 2014
Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of the year, and the second in the Western Pacific. The other Western Pacific Cat 5 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis. The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Vongfong a threat to Japan
Vongfong passed through the U.S. Mariana islands of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian on Sunday as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, causing mostly minor damage. The typhoon is expected to turn to the north by Thursday, and is a threat to hit Japan next Monday. Satellite loops show Vongfong is an extremely impressive storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, excellent upper-level outflow, and a large 30-mile diameter eye. With the typhoon over warm waters of 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, continued intensification is possible. The 5 pm EDT Tuesday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted that Vongfong would top out with sustained 190 mph winds at 2 pm EDT on Wednesday. Cooler waters and higher wind shear will induce weakening later in the week as the typhoon approaches Japan.