quote:Forecast for 97L
Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, bringing the center into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. It is uncertain if 97L will then turn northeast and affect Florida late in the week, or stay in the Central Gulf of Mexico and head north into Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 10%, and 5-day odds of 30%.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.c(...)#oaTxz9vZakvURXmQ.99
Kan nog gaan uitgroeien tot orkaan. In ieder geval heeft de VS de grootste kans op een landfall ergens aan de golfkust, daarna trekt ze langs de oostkust omhoog.quote:Op donderdag 3 oktober 2013 13:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
80% inmiddels
Lijkt erop dat het de volgende storm wordt en landfall wordt nu geschat in Alabama/Florida Panhandle zaterdag/zondag.
quote:In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, a strong tropical disturbance with plenty of spin has developed off the west coast of Thailand, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. The North Indian Ocean is much easier to predict the formation of Tropical Cyclones for then the Atlantic, so these forecasts are very likely to come true. The storm expected to track to the west-northwest and make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday. Conditions are ripe for this storm to intensify to hurricane strength and drive a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.
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