Olietopic #14 - De olieprijs blijft hoog

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1. Saudi Arabia- 264,200,000,000
2. Iran- 138,400,000,000
3. Iraq- 115,000,000,000
4. Kuwait- 101,500,000,000
5. U.A.E- 97,800,000,000
6. Venezuela- 87,000,000,000
7. Russia- 79,400,000,000
8. Libya- 41,500,000,000
9. Kazakhstan- 39,800,000,000
10. Nigeria- 36,200,000,000
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

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The oil and gas rig count, which is the number of rigs currently online, is widely regarded as an important indicator in assessing the health of the oil industry. It can give investors and companies an idea of current demand, as well as provide clues for the immediate future.

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FT: European car sales fall to lowest level since 1993

New car sales in the European Union last month fell 5.9 per cent year-on-year to their lowest level for May since 1993, as demand for new vehicles continued to decline across the EU’s biggest economies.

May’s fall marks a return to gloomy form for the continent’s troubled carmakers after a small rise in April sales ended an 18-month long losing streak and raised slim hopes of a possible end to the pain, blamed on high unemployment, sluggish economic growth and falling consumer spending power.

The UK was again the only large market to post a rise in new registrations, with an 11 per cent rise compared with May last year, the 15th consecutive monthly jump.

Car sales fell 9.9 per cent in Germany, 10.4 per cent in France and 8 per cent in Italy, according to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) on Tuesday.

“May brought some worrying figures, notably for the German and French markets,” said Carlos da Silva at consultancy IHS Automotive. “It seems as if April was nothing more than a bright spell in the horrendous European sky of car sales.”

Executives and analysts have predicted a prolonged slide in sales across the EU’s car market, which began after the global financial crisis derailed the continent’s economic growth, saying there is no reason to believe that the fall shows any signs of bottoming out.

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Rosneft to double oil flows to China in $270 billion deal

(Reuters) - Russia's Rosneft (ROSN.MM) agreed a $270 billion deal to double oil supplies to China on Friday, as the Kremlin energy champion shifts its focus to Asia from saturated and crisis-hit European markets.

The deal, one of the biggest ever in the history of the global oil industry, will bring Rosneft $60-70 billion in upfront pre-payment from China, the holders of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves.

It will also allow Rosneft, the world's biggest publicly listed oil firm, to steeply cut its heavy debts and develop new remote Arctic fields.

"The estimate of the sum of the contract in today's market prices is absolutely unprecedented - $270 billion," Russian President Vladimir Putin told an economic forum in Russia's St Petersburg after the deal was agreed.

The agreement highlights a growing partnership between China, the globe's top energy consumer, and Russia, the largest oil producer, and comes despite previously uneasy relations between Rosneft and Beijing over energy pricing.

Rosneft's boss Igor Sechin, a close ally of Putin, said his firm will supply China with 300,000 barrels per day over 25 years starting in the second half of the decade, on top of the 300,000 bpd it already ships to the world's No.2 oil consumer.

Putin later said total supplies could amount to as much as 900,000 bpd.

The speed of change in Russian export patterns has been dramatic - switching huge volumes from Europe in only five years.

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Hoogleraren verenigd tegen schaliegas

Een grote groep hoogleraren op het gebied van milieu en duurzaamheid spreekt zich scherp uit tegen de winning van schaliegas in Nederland. Ze presenteren zaterdag een manifest in Trouw.

Daarin schrijven ze dat de hoeveelheid schaliegas in Nederland relatief klein is, zo'n 5 tot 10 procent van Slochteren.

Deze hoeveelheid levert 5 tot 15 jaar extra gas op, voor die periode een paar duizend banen en in totaal zo'n 20 tot 30 miljard euro. De ecologische schade kan echter oplopen tot een veelvoud van dit bedrag, bijvoorbeeld door vervuiling van het grondwater.

De hoogleraren geven een opsomming van de nadelen. Zo wordt het schaliegas gewonnen met een mengsel van water en chemische stoffen die giftig, kankerverwekkend en radioactief zijn. Die stoffen kunnen in het grond- en oppervlaktewater terechtkomen.

Bovendien is de winning een zeer intensieve industrie, met grote boortorens en vrachtwagens die dag en nacht af en aan rijden. Gevolgen daarvan zijn: luchtverontreiniging, geluidsoverlast en een verhoogde kans op aardbevingen. ''Zo'n industrie wil niemand in de buurt van woonwijken en natuurgebieden in een dichtbevolkt land als Nederland", aldus de ondertekenaars van het manifest.

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Klankbordgroep Schaliegas loopt leeg

Behalve het ministerie van Economische Zaken zelf zitten er geen vertegenwoordigers van het openbaar bestuur meer in de Klankbordgroep Schaliegas. De provincies Brabant, Limburg en Zeeland en de gemeenten Boxtel en Noordoostpolder zijn er allemaal uitgestapt.

Geheimhoudingsverklaring ondertekenen
Het ministerie had het gepresteerd de vertegenwoordigers in de klankbordgroep donderdag op te roepen voor maandag een geheimhoudingsverklaring te ondertekenen alvorens zij een toelichting zouden krijgen op het concepteindrapport van de commissie die de mogelijke risico’s en gevolgen van winning van schaliegas en steenkoolgas onderzoekt . Daarbij was er geen mogelijkheid meer om inhoudelijk te reageren op het onderzoek. De communicatie hierover verliep telefonisch.

In strijd met afspraken
Dit alles was genoeg reden voor de Brabantse gedeputeerde Johan van den Hout om uit de klankbordgroep te stappen. ‘Deze aanpak is in strijd met de afspraken en maakt het ons onmogelijk onze rol in de klankbordgroep naar behoren te vervullen’ schrijft de provincie in een brief aan EZ. 'De samenleving is niet gebaat bij een sfeer van geheimzinnigheid.'

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'2013 slechtste jaar autobranche sinds 1969'

In 2013 worden er naar verwachting slechts 375.000 nieuwe auto's verkocht in Nederland, het laagste aantal in 44 jaar en ruim 25 procent minder vergeleken met 2012.

Dat voorspelt Aumacon, het kenniscentrum voor de autobranche.

,,De autoverkoop heeft sterk te kampen met de gevolgen van de matige koopbereidheid van de Nederlanders. Door de sterk verbeterde kwaliteit kan de auto altijd nog wel een jaartje langer mee, zo denken veel consumenten, zeker als de huidige auto nog relatief jong is'', zegt Aumacon-directeur Clem Dickmann.

In de afgelopen 44 jaren doken de autoverkopen volgens hem slechts drie maal onder de 400-duizendgrens; dit gebeurde in 1981, in 1993 en in 2009. ,,Zelfs in de eerste Oliecrisis (1973) haalde de autoverkoop nog het niveau van 430 duizend stuks'', aldus Dickmann.

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India paying ‘bubble’ price for crude oil

The world faced an oil price bubble in July 2008 when crude price hit an all-time high of $147 or Rs6,333. While the dollar price of oil is about 33% lower than that now, the Indian price has breached the all-time high. This is because of the massive devaluation of the India rupee, which reflects, among things, the massive loot and inefficiency by a regime led by a trained economist, Dr Manmohan Singh

A few days ago, crude oil price quoted on the MCX surpassed the all-time high price of Rs6,333, made in July 2008. How? The culprit is a weak rupee which has made oil as expensive as it was when international oil price was about 50% higher. At that time in 2008 the world was in the grip of the fear of a runaway rise in the price of oil. Global oil prices went parabolic as speculators and large institutions pushed up the price backed by the idea that the world was running out of oil. “Peak oil” theory was a rage. Oil hit an all-time high of $147 in July. Goldman Sachs had announced that the $200 barrier could be hit any time and even the president of the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) had warned of oil reaching $200 a barrel.

Well, we are not hearing much of the peak oil theory any more. That is because crude oil is just around $103 now, rising recently after trading around $95 for a long time. But if you look at the Indian imported oil price, you would wonder whether we are re-living the worry of peak oil.

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The rupee has been weak for a long time but has cascaded down in the last two months, pushing up oil prices in rupee terms to all-time highs. While the rupee has depreciated against the US dollar by over 12% since the beginning of May to an all-time low of Rs61.21, over the same period price of crude oil has moved up 29% from Rs4,936 per barrel (bbl) to Rs6,389/Bbl as on 8 July 2013. In dollar terms the price of crude oil is up by just 8% from $95.61 in May 2013 to $103.

Crude oil in dollar and rupee terms moved almost in sync from the beginning of 2007 up to September 2011. Then, the decline of the rupee started and there was the expanding gap between the price of crude oil in dollars and in rupees. From around Rs45/$ in September 2011 the rupee declined by 15% to Rs53/$. While the crude oil price in dollar terms moved up by 17%, its price in rupee jumped by 29%. After a slight strengthening of the rupee, over the next couple of months, the rupee continued its downward trend. Since the beginning of this year, the price of crude oil has climbed up by 24% in rupee terms and a much lower 11% in dollar terms. The rupee has depreciated by almost 10% over this period.

So, India is again paying the same price of oil when there was an oil bubble. The hope for a stronger rupee seems bleak given the weak economic fundamentals, costlier imports, high inflation and record high current account deficit (CAD).

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Op vrijdag 19 juli 2013 11:15 schreef Beelzebufo het volgende:
De WTI prijs gaat binnenkort de Brent prijs inhalen, terwijl er de afgelopen jaren een verschil van ongeveer $10-$15 tussen zat. Wat betekent dit? Is er een nieuwe bubble op komst?

Of gaat Brent nu hárd dalen omdat de dames en heren speculanten meer denken te kunnen verdienen aan WTI?

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Brent-WTI Spread Shrinks to $5 for First Time in 2 1/2 Years

WTI is enjoying its return to market leadership,” Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH, an energy-research company in Zug, Switzerland, said in a June 25 report as the spread narrowed to less than $6.

The WTI-Brent spread widened to a record of $28.08 a barrel on Oct. 14, 2011. It was $19.29 at the end of last year and averaged $16.04 since the start of 2011 through June 28 this year.

“Even U.S. East Coast refineries, which historically have relied on Brent crude oil and Brent-like crudes, can now access U.S. light sweet crude oil,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a unit of the Energy Department, said in a report on June 28. “U.S. crude that moves by rail is replacing Brent crude oil and Brent-like crude oil imports into the U.S. East Coast, putting downward pressure on the price of Brent crude oil and narrowing the differential versus WTI crude oil.”

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Bendes dieseldieven maken transporteurs radeloos

Bijna dagelijks slaan ze toe: bendes dieseldieven. Op verschillende plaatsen wordt voor honderden liters diesel uit vrachtwagens en tractoren gestolen. De rondtrekkende bendes maken transporteurs radeloos. Die doen vaak geen aangifte meer bij de politie, want dat kost veel tijd en levert vaak niets op.

Transportorganisatie TLN maakt zich grote zorgen over het probleem. Met name de moedeloosheid bij de transporteurs is een zorg. Door het niet doen van aangifte kan de politie ook geen actie ondernemen. En preventieve maatregelen zoals beveiligde tankdoppen werken ook niet, want de dieven slaan met grof geweld gaten in de tanks, met een flinke schadepost tot gevolg.

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Despite boom, oil companies struggling

New troves of oil have been found all over the globe, and oil companies are taking in around $100 for every barrel they produce. But these seemingly prosperous conditions aren't doing much for Big Oil: Profit and production at the world's largest oil companies are slumping badly.

Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP all posted disappointing earnings this week. Chevron is expected to post a profit decline Friday. All of them face the same problem: The cost to get newfound oil from remote locations and tightly packed rock is high and rising. And it takes years and billions of dollars to get big new production projects up and running.

The higher extraction costs could translate to higher oil and gasoline prices for consumers.

Strong production growth at an oil company can offset higher operating costs, "but when production is flat or declining it's a big hit," says Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones. "Even though oil prices are $100 or higher, the returns on investment aren't what they used to be."

The new oil being found and produced is in ultra-deep ocean waters, in sands that must be heated to release the hydrocarbons or trapped in shale or other tight rock that requires constant drilling to keep production steady.

That makes this new oil far more expensive to get out of the ground than what's known as conventional oil -- large pools of oil and gas in relatively easy-to-drill locations. Those reserves have always been hard to find, but now they are all but gone outside of the Middle East.