Voorspellingen, altijd leuk:
quote:
Using social media to track interest in the U.S. networks’ new series, Networked Insights’ lead television analyst, Sean Reckwerdt, offers up his picks for the NBC shows that will prove to be hits, and the ones that will likely fail to resonate with viewers.
Networked Insights, a Goldman Sachs-funded firm that advises networks and brands on how audiences are responding to shows and advertising, tracks three elements of social performance: the volume of conversations generated, the sentiment, combining positive and negative to get a net score, and acceleration—is the conversation increasing over time. These factors are taken into account to come up with a Social Index ranking. Ahead of the Upfronts the company also analyzes the performance of series that are similar to the new pilots to come up with a “look-a-like” sentiment and looks at the popularity of a show’s cast and crew.
At NBC, Reckwerdt’s top pick is Revolution, slated for Mondays at 10 p.m. Networked Insights gives the series a 144 Social Index—with 100 as the ranking for an average show. Distributed globally by Warner Bros. International Television, the show explores what life would be like if electricity mysteriously vanished. The show is exec produced by J.J. Abrams—but Reckwerdt notes that that may not necessarily be the main appeal of the show. “Since Lost he's not been able to rekindle any TV magic,” Reckwerdt notes. According to Networked Insights’ research, it’s the involvement of Eric Kipke, the creator of The CW hit Supernatural, as executive producer that’s proving to be a more compelling element for viewers. “He is really driving a lot of the conversations. And the combination with Abrams is a positive. One thing Abrams does bring in is the big budget aspect.”
Reckwerdt also sees potential in the midseason replacement 1600 Penn, a family comedy set in the White House that has been compared to Modern Family—an association that should serve the show well, Reckwerdt notes. The casting of Bill Pullman may also entice audiences, but Reckwerdt expects Josh Gad, portraying the President’s “kooky son,” to become a fan favorite.
Rounding out Reckwerdt’s top three is The New Normal, a Tuesday night comedy about a gay Beverly Hills couple and the Midwestern waitress they enlist to be a surrogate mom. Glee co-creator Ryan Murphy is behind the 20th Century Fox Television show. “It's not going to appeal to everyone,” Reckwerdt cautions. “But Gleeks are huge online and there is going to be rollover between the programs, especially now that Glee is aging a bit. His style of writing and humor appeals to a pretty broad audience.”
At the top of Reckwerdt’s list of shows that won’t resonate is Next Caller, a midseason replacement starring Dane Cook as a foulmouthed satellite radio DJ. While Reckwerdt acknowledges there is a Dane Cook fan base out there, he sees the appeal of the show being limited. Matthew Perry, meanwhile, headlines another show that Reckwerdt thinks is doomed: Go On. Reckwerdt believes that the sports setting—Perry plays a sportscaster who signs up for group therapy after the death of his wife—may alienate some viewers. Plus, Reckwerdt notes, Perry’s TV track record since Friends “has been pretty poor.” Completing Reckwerdt’s bottom three is the midseason drama Infamous, which hasn’t yet been able to generate much interest, he notes. The series’ Social Index, according to Networked Insights, is just 59.
Other shows with middling scores, according to Networked Insights: Hannibal, ranked at 79, and Dick Wolf’s Chicago Fire, at 75.
quote:
Networked Insights uses conversations being generated in social media to offer "Must Buy" and "Advertised Against" recommendations to help its clients decide where to put their ad dollars in the 2012-2013 season. Reckwerdt notes that CBS generated less conversation in social media as compared with the other broadcast networks. "NBC generates a lot more polarizing conversations and ABC and FOX have some interesting programming that people are into," Reckwerdt says. With the volume of shows CBS is renewing, "there's not as much for people to talk about, and there's not as many new shows that are blowing people away." He adds that CBS viewers are "not necessarily the rapid fire Twitter community. And they're not creating tumblr pages and whatnot. They're more passive social users."
On his Must Buy list at CBS is Vegas, a new Tuesday 10 p.m. drama set in 1960s Las Vegas. Reckwerdt says that conversations in social media have noted that Vegas is a slightly new direction for CBS, being a period crime drama rather than a contemporary crime drama. "It has more intrigue to it." There's also been interest in the cast, notably Michael Chiklis and Carrie-Anne Moss and, to a lesser extend, Dennis Quaid. Reckwerdt also saw positive traction for Partners, a comedy being sandwiched between How I Met Your Mother and 2 Broke Girls on Monday nights. Sophia Bush, popular in social media from her days on One Tree Hill, stars in the show. Reckwerdt notes, "It's another example of a network that is trying to take fan favorite elements from The CW."
Also scoring high on Networked Insights' Social Index ranking was Elementary, a contemporary take on Sherlock Holmes. The show, however, didn't make Reckwerdt's Must Buy list. "It is driving interest, the content has a good opportunity to resonate," he notes, but, "Lucy Liu creates very polarizing conversation. The other problem is, [for] hardcore TV fans, there's a really good contemporary Sherlock already, so people are saying, why come up with a new one? But to be honest, these individuals are the minority."
Reckwerdt is less hopeful for the comedy Friend Me, which hasn't generated much conversation, and the cop drama Golden Boy—"there's a lot of genre fatigue," he notes. An initial "Advised Against" pick for Reckwerdt was the Friday night legal drama Made in Jersey, which he compares with NBC's canned Harry's Law. However, "After the upfronts, the reaction to the trailers was trending more positively."
quote:
"The CW is always very strong on social with their shows," says Reckwerdt at Networked Insights, which studies social media conversations to see which series are trending among potential viewers.
Cult focuses on an investigative journalist searching for his brother, who disappeared after becoming obsessed with a TV show about a cult leader. "It comes from the Gossip Girl team," he says, and should be able to appeal to a similar audience as The CW hit.
The Carrie Diaries is about a 16-year-old Carrie Bradshaw—from Sex and the City—in 1984. Reckwerdt notes that so far, the show has not been too popular with older Sex and the City viewers, "although they'll probably still check it out," he says. "It is appealing more to the younger audience. It'll probably gear more towards Gossip Girl fans."
Reckwerdt also found strong interest in Arrow, based on a DC Comics character and slated for Wednesday nights at 8 p.m. "Arrow is their Smallville replacement," he says. Smallville, he continues, was on the air for a long time and as such still has a strong fan community online. "It will have a strong premiere," Reckwerdt predicts of the series. "Whether or not it sticks around..."
Reckwerdt expects that the new medical drama Emily Owens, M.D., paired on Tuesdays with Hart of Dixie, won't stick around on The CW schedule for long. "Medical dramas have not been doing well," Reckwerdt says, pointing to recent cancellations like ABC's Off the Map and CBS's A Gifted Man.
quote:
Mindy Kaling’s new comedy and the Kevin Bacon drama The Following are the most promising contenders out of FOX’s 2012-2013 pilot pickups, according to Sean Reckwerdt, lead television analyst at Networked Insights.
The New York-based company tracks conversations in social media to assess how audiences are responding to TV shows, taking into account the volume of conversations generated and the positive and negative sentiments. Using 100 as the base for an average show, Networked Insights gave The Mindy Project a Social Index ranking of 170.
“The Mindy Project looks like the best pick,” says Reckwerdt of the Universal Television and 3 Arts Entertainment comedy, which is being paired with New Girl on Tuesday nights. “Mindy Kaling has a huge social presence. The conversations since the trailers hit have been pretty positive. It's a mix of New Girl and Parks and Recreation.”
Reckwerdt’s second top pick for FOX is The Following, which has a Social Index ranking of 151. He attributes much of the the buzz around the show to creator Kevin Williamson. “He is the real driving part behind the conversation,” Reckwerdt says. “He didn't do well with The Secret Circle but people love The Vampire Diaries and they like his style.”
Kevin Bacon stars in the serial killer drama, slated to launch in midseason. “He is being discussed positively,” Reckwerdt adds.
The Following and NBC’s Revolution—exec produced by Supernatural creator Eric Kipke—are examples of the bigger networks seeking out showrunners who have a history of “creating intense fans on The CW,” Reckwerdt says.
Reckwerdt’s top three at FOX is rounded out by the comedy The Goodwin Games, which comes from the same team behind the CBS hit How I Met Your Mother. “A lot of comedies now are about the older Millennials trying to figure out where they are, what they're doing—The Goodwin Games is definitely in that space. And it's cute enough that people will probably like it. The buzz for it online has been reasonable for a comedy.” Networked Insights gives the midseason replacement a Social Index ranking of 87.
Two shows that Reckwerdt thinks won’t make the cut are the comedy Ben & Kate and the drama The Mob Doctor. On Ben & Kate, he notes, “From what I remember of last year's conversations, this is going to go very much in the same route that BFF went on NBC…. Middle of the road [performance] and then dissipates after a couple of episodes.”
On The Mob Doctor, meanwhile, filling the slot vacated by House on Mondays at 9 p.m., Reckwerdt says, “Jordan Spiro [the lead actress] isn't generating a ton of conversation. It’s being positioned as a House replacement. It's just not generating a lot of conversation, the title is pushing people off a little bit. It's just not grabbing people.”
quote:
The supernatural-themed 666 Park Avenue is scheduled for Sundays at 10 p.m.—a slot that this season was home to the canned Pan Am and GCB. This fall, Revenge will serve as its lead in, taking the slot previously held by Desperate Housewives. "This show is successfully appealing to viewers of American Horror Story," says Networked Insights, which advised networks and advertisers on how viewers are responding to shows, based on conversations in social media. "Terry O’Quinn from Lost is just sweetening the deal."
Last Resort, from The Shield's Shawn Ryan, is slated for Thursdays at 8 p.m., with a cast that includes Andre Braugher. "It has been a long time since Seaquest was on the air and viewers seem ready for new submarine adventures, particularly Glee fans who are excited to see Max Adler in a new role."
Another show listed as a top pick is Nashville, from Lionsgate and ABC Studios, starring Connie Britton and Hayden Panettiere. The Wednesday 10 p.m show focuses on a country music legend. "This year ABC is going big with the country music theme, and unlike with Malibu Country, Nashville is offering viewers a bit more content with Connie Britton fresh from fan favorite show Friday Night Lights."
Indeed, Networked Insights doesn't see a long future for Malibu Country, a midseason replacement starring Reba McEntire. "[She] may be an award-winning country music artist and a previous WB sitcom star, but currently she has a rather lackluster resonance on social [media] and the show’s content is hit and miss with viewers."
Another show that doesn't yet seem to be resonating is Family Tools, a midseason Tuesday night comedy adapted from ITV's White Van Man. "As a remake of a British modernization of Sanford and Son featuring the wife from The King of Queens, this show's premise and casting is too generic to catch the attention of viewers," Networked Insights says.
Another series failing to gain traction in social media thus far is Zero Hour, from Prison Break creator Paul T. Scheuring. "Anthony Edwards may be well remembered by older TV fans for his role on ER, but today he doesn’t have much of a social presence; the thriller-style narrative also struggles on ABC, as was evident in their recently cancelled show Missing."