Olietopic #13 - Productie omlaag, vraag omhoog, dat komt wel goed...

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Op donderdag 26 januari 2012 13:16 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Je vergeet het rendement van de energieopwekker.

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Op donderdag 26 januari 2012 13:23 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Wat is het rendement van een zonnecel, als die op den duur meer energie oplevert als zijn productie gekost heeft.

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Op donderdag 26 januari 2012 13:28 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:

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De energetische terugverdientijd is in Nederland 2 tot 4 jaar.
Maar: een andere stelling van mij hierover: doordat de productie van PV dusdanig hard groeit, heeft PV als geheel wereldwijd netto nog NIETS opgeleverd! ALLES wat het ooit heeft geproduceerd is (indirect) benut voor de productie van nieuwe cellen. En gezien de huidige groei kan dat nog best 30 jaar of langer doorgaan...
Begrijp me niet verkeerd, PV-productie is een goed iets, maar afgezien van de kleine bijdrage momenteel levert het netto pas iets op als het dusdanig groot is dat de groei afneemt! Of de productie zuiniger wordt natuurlijk.

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Can the Economy Bear What Oil Prices Have in Store?

ScienceDaily (Jan. 26, 2012) — Stop wrangling over global warming and instead reduce fossil-fuel use for the sake of the global economy.

That's the message from two scientists, one from the University of Washington and one from the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who say in the current issue of the journal Nature (Jan. 26) that the economic pain of a flattening oil supply will trump the environment as a reason to curb the use of fossil fuels.

"Given our fossil-fuel dependent economies, this is more urgent and has a shorter time frame than global climate change," says James W. Murray, UW professor of oceanography, who wrote the Nature commentary with David King, director of Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

The "tipping point" for oil supply appears to have occurred around 2005, says Murray, who compared world crude oil production with world prices going back to 1998. Before 2005, supply of regular crude oil was elastic and increased in response to price increases. Since then, production appears to have hit a wall at 75 million barrels per day in spite of price increases of 15 percent each year.

"As a result, prices swing wildly in response to small changes in demand," the co-authors wrote. "Others have remarked on this step change in the economies of oil around the year 2005, but the point needs to be lodged more firmly in the minds of policy makers."

For those who argue that oil reserves have been increasing, that more crude oil will be available in the future, the co-authors wrote: "The true volume of global proved reserves is clouded by secrecy; forecasts by state oil companies are not audited and appear to be exaggerated. More importantly, reserves often take 6 -- 10 years to drill and develop before they become part of the supply, by which time older fields have become depleted."

Production at oil fields around the world is declining between 4.5 percent and 6.7 percent per year, they wrote.

"For the economy, it's production that matters, not how much oil might be in the ground," Murray says. In the U.S., for example, production as a percentage of total reserves went from 9 percent to 6 percent in the last 30 years.

"We've already gotten the easy oil, the oil that can be produced cheaply," he says. "It used to be we'd drill a well and the oil would flow out, now we have to go through all these complicated and expensive procedures to produce the oil."

The same is true of alternative sources such as tar sands or "fracking" for shale gas, Murray says, where supplies may be exaggerated and production is expensive. Take the promise of shale gas and oil: A New York Times investigative piece last June reported that "the gas may not be as easy and cheap to extract from shale formations deep underground as the companies are saying, according to hundreds of industry e-mails and internal documents and an analysis of data from thousands of wells."

Production at shale gas wells can drop 60 to 90 percent in the first year of operation, according to a world expert on shale gas who was one of the sources for the commentary piece. Murray and King built their commentary using data and information from more than 15 international and U.S. government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles, reports from groups such as the National Research Council and Brookings Institution and association findings.

Stagnant oil supplies and volatile prices take a toll on the world economy. Of the 11 recessions in the U.S. since World War II, ten were preceded by a spike in oil prices, the commentary noted.

"Historically, there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth," the co-authors wrote. "If oil production can't grow, the implication is that the economy can't grow either."

Calculations from the International Monetary Fund, for example, say that to achieve a 4 percent growth in the global economy in the next five years, oil production must increase about 3 percent a year.

"Yet to achieve that will require either an heroic increase in oil production, ... increased efficiency of oil use, more energy-efficient growth or rapid substitution of other fuel sources," according to the commentary. "Economists and politicians continually debate policies that will lead to a return to economic growth. But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem, they haven't identified the necessary solutions: weaning society off fossil fuel."

The commentary concludes: "This will be a decades-long transformation and we need to start immediately. Emphasizing the short-term economic imperative from oil prices must be enough to push governments into action now."

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Op maandag 30 januari 2012 16:15 schreef stbabylon het volgende:
Wel mooi dat ze 'tipping point' gebruiken ipv Peak Oil. 2005 dus

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Europe at an energy crossroads

There is no doubt that we must make targeted investments that will ensure all European residents and businesses access to affordable, clean and safe energy in the years to come. This requires Europe to make a series of landmark decisions this year.

It’s going to take courage from the European Parliament, the Council of Ministers and the Commission. We urge all to focus on these challenges, especially for the next five months. If we do not, we will become the back seat driver, finding ourselves unable to keep up the pace in the global energy race.

Günther Oettinger is European Commissioner for Energy. Martin Lidegaard is Danish Minister of Climate, Energy and Building and chairman of the Council of Ministers of Energy.

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Op maandag 30 januari 2012 16:20 schreef waht het volgende:

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Wel slim, 'peak oil' is een beladen conspiracy-term geworden. Prima, dan noemen we het anders.

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Op woensdag 8 februari 2012 17:01 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Idd, zodra je er over begint halen de mensen word je weer naar het alu-hoedje-hoekje gestuurd.

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Op woensdag 8 februari 2012 17:50 schreef Arkai het volgende:

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Jij was toch ook van dat kamp? De posts waarin je aangaf dat de olieprijzen niet lager zouden komen dan de piek in 2008 liegen er niet om.

Waar ging het mis (of goed)?

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Op donderdag 9 februari 2012 00:48 schreef Mumford het volgende:
Ik wil me eerst een beetje inlezen en verdiepen in wat nu precies bepaald of de olie prijs stijgt of juist daalt.

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Op donderdag 9 februari 2012 18:34 schreef Arkai het volgende:

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Ik denk dat je in je zoektocht niet direct moet zoeken naar redenen waarom de prijs van olie stijgt of daalt maar je eerst moet verdiepen in hoe oliehandel uberhaupt tot stand komt. Om geld te kunnen verdienen aan olie moet je jezelf bekend maken met alle facetten van temijnhandel en zodoende ook de risico's kunnen inschatten die gepaard gaan met handel via marginaccounts. Prijsvorming van olie is zelfs voor de grote bedrijven een groot raadsel dus denk alsjeblieft niet hier op systematische wijze geld mee te kunnen verdienen.

Om een goede basis te krijgen in inzicht over termijnhandel raad ik je aan om lecture 21 van R. Shiller te kijken die m.i. op zeer beknopte wijze de essentiele punten aankaart. Let wel, het college gaat niet specifiek over olie maar is breed toepasbaar op alle grondstofhandel.

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Op woensdag 8 februari 2012 19:19 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Interessante materie over schaliegas:

http://www.smartplanet.co(...)ics-of-shale-gas/243

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Brent trade with no Brent crude

ABUJA/LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Brent is the benchmark for pricing two-thirds of the world's oil, but soon there won't be any Brent crude left in it.

Royal Dutch Shell's Brent oilfield, among the largest fields ever found in the UK North Sea, is set to be decommissioned in the near future, a company official said on Tuesday.

Brent had an important role in the oil market as the original source of crude for the Brent futures contract. But output is dwindling, and "Brent" now refers to a blend of North Sea oils.

"The UK's North Sea used to be the ultimate technology frontier but is now a mature oil and gas province," said Ian Craig, executive vice president Shell E&P Africa, speaking at a Nigerian oil conference in Abuja.

"Indeed Shell's Brent field, which is synonymous with the UK industry, is due to be decommissioned in the near future."