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  Moderator dinsdag 30 augustus 2011 @ 16:18:33 #101
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_101373847
quote:
Katia formed: Set to become next Major Hurricane
MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Katia formed in the far eastern Atlantic on early Tuesday morning and is expected to become a major hurricane later this week, forecasters said.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Saturday evening when it emerged as a large area of showers and thunderstorms off the west coast of Africa. It became better organized on Sunday in association with a low pressure area when it was classified as a tropical depression.

"The convective pattern of the cyclone has improved overnight, with a large area of cold cloud tops now situated to the west and southwest of the estimated center location," NHC senior hurricane specialist Michael Brennan said on Tuesday, adding that intensity estimates showed the system had strengthened. "On this basis the cyclone is upgraded to a tropical storm."

As of 5 a.m. AST (0900 GMT), the center of Katia was located about 535 miles (855 kilometers) west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed near 17 miles (28 kilometers) per hour, a general motion which is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds of Katia have increased to near 40 miles (65 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts. "[East-northeasterly] shear should decrease in the next 12 hours or so, and after that time steady intensification should commence as the cyclone moves over progressively higher ocean heat content," Brennan said. "Katia is expected to be near hurricane strength within 36 to 48 hours with continued strengthening to near major hurricane status by the end of the period (week)."

Tuesday's forecast showed Katia will be just north of Puerto Rico by Sunday, but this could change as the most recent 5-year average errors at this forecast time is about 250 miles (402 kilometers). Forecasts later this week will better determine which countries, if any, are at risk.

Katia was added to this year's rotating storm roster to replace Katrina which killed more than 1,800 people in August 2005 when it made landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi. Storm names are retired if they caused a large number of fatalities.

Katia is the eleventh named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Jose which formed south of Bermuda on late Sunday afternoon. Jose passed west of Bermuda, causing minor damage but no casualties.

According to figures released earlier this month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.
pi_101392201
10% nu in de Caribische zee.
  woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 01:29:59 #103
89730 Drugshond
De Euro. Mislukt vanaf dag 1.
  woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 03:10:56 #104
56749 BlaZ
Torpitudo peius est quam mors.
pi_101399278
Cat4 en dan richting New York, kijken of ze het deze keer wel serieus nemen.
Ceterum censeo Turciam delendam esse.
pi_101400820
Ben benieuwd wat dat systeem in de golf gaat doen. Lijkt er nu op dat het richting Florida trekt en daarna langs de oostkust weer omhoog gaat. Volgens deze run dan.

  woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 10:46:02 #106
262 Re
Kiss & Swallow
pi_101402652
quote:
0s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 03:10 schreef BlaZ het volgende:
Cat4 en dan richting New York, kijken of ze het deze keer wel serieus nemen.
ze namen Irene toch ook echt wel serieus, dat het niet precies geworden is wat was voorspeld doet daar niets van af natuurlijk
04-08-11, 02-02-12, 20-06-14, 13-08-15
pi_101407169
quote:
2s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 09:08 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ben benieuwd wat dat systeem in de golf gaat doen. Lijkt er nu op dat het richting Florida trekt en daarna langs de oostkust weer omhoog gaat. Volgens deze run dan.

[ afbeelding ]
GFS kaartje voor volgende week woensdag

  Moderator woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 13:28:30 #108
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_101407678
Zal me benieuwen wanneer daar een invest komt dan :{
pi_101408455
quote:
0s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 13:28 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Zal me benieuwen wanneer daar een invest komt dan :{
Die is er al. Nu in de Caribische zee 10%
  Moderator woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 13:59:38 #110
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_101409036
quote:
2s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 13:45 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Die is er al. Nu in de Caribische zee 10%
Vanochtend zag ik hem nog niet :o :D
  Moderator woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 14:00:16 #111
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_101409055


quote:
Next tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico?
Closer to the U.S., we have a more immediate concern. Depicted in the graphic below over the northwest Caribbean is a tropical disturbance with collocated shower and thunderstorm activity. Numerous computer models forecast that this system could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week as it makes a move towards the western Gulf of Mexico.

It's too early to say what impacts this system may have, but residents and those with plans along the Gulf Coast late this week into the Labor Day weekend should monitor the situation closely, particularly in Texas and Louisiana.

As always, stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest updates on this situation. Tune in at :50 after each hour for a full look at the tropics.
  Moderator woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 14:03:39 #112
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_101409423
Lange termijn (GFS) brengt Katia heel dicht bij Nederland.
Maar dit is niet serieus te nemen. (nog niet...)

pi_101412357
De laatste voorspelling

  woensdag 31 augustus 2011 @ 17:02:08 #115
56749 BlaZ
Torpitudo peius est quam mors.
pi_101415123
quote:
3s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 10:46 schreef Re het volgende:

[..]

ze namen Irene toch ook echt wel serieus, dat het niet precies geworden is wat was voorspeld doet daar niets van af natuurlijk
Achteraf werd er nogal lacherig over gedaan anders
Ceterum censeo Turciam delendam esse.
pi_101417014
Nouja 45 doden in de VS door een orkaatje is niet echt lacherig.
pi_101421630
30% nu in de Caribische Zee
pi_101421655
quote:
0s.gif Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 17:02 schreef BlaZ het volgende:

[..]

Achteraf werd er nogal lacherig over gedaan anders
Door wie?
pi_101439233
En hoppa. Hurricane Katia is er!
Nu ook 60% Caribische Zee.
pi_101440354




[ Bericht 36% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 01-09-2011 09:20:54 ]
pi_101440427
quote:
VERY TOUGH FORECASTING TIME COMING UP WITH MULTIPLE ISSUES DEVELOPING

We now have invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives it a high chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next 48 hours or so. Computer models are all over the place with where it might track and how strong it could become. Water temps are near 90 across almost the entire Gulf of Mexico with plenty of deep ocean heat content as well. The key will be how well the system can bundle its broad energy. If it can gain a tight inner core, it could really ramp up over that bath water. People need to be aware of this potential and keep an eye on the region as we approach the big holiday weekend ahead. I honestly have no clue as to where it may end up- it could meander around the region for quite some time and if it is close to the coast, it will bring a major flood threat. We know a good deal of the Gulf Coast states need the rain, but not 10 to 15 inches of it all at once. This one will be complicated, I assure you.

As for Katia, don't write it off just yet in terms of not affecting the U.S. mainland or the Bahamas first. While the long range models were almost a lock in turning Katia away from the U.S. a few days ago, now things have changed some. It appears that there is at least a chance that the soon-to-be hurricane could turn back to the west after some upper level energy passes by to the north. It's kind of like missing your bus and walking on down to the next pick up spot. Where that spot is will determine whether or not the Bahamas and/or the U.S. see any appreciable effects from Katia. It is forecast to become a powerful hurricane and looks to be well on its way to that tonight. I do not see this being a threat to the northern Leewards and neither does the NHC. In fact, the cone of uncertainty does not extend down to that region which is good news for folks recovering from Irene when it went through.

These next ten days or so could be filled with many twists and turns from the tropics and a lot of people could be affected once again. Take a lesson from Irene that we do not need to have a cat-3 or cat-4 hurricane strike to cause major problems and loss of life. Even a hurricane passing between Hatteras and Bermuda will kick up the waves along the East Coast- and rough surf can be deadly. A slow moving tropical storm near the central Gulf Coast can dump enough rain to cause massive flooding. These are all things to consider and not just focus on "will IT hit here?" or "how strong will IT be?" because when we're talking about IT, we're talking about the entire storm or hurricane, not just the center. I'll have more tomorrow morning.
Pad van Katia lijkt nog niet definitief naar het noorden te gaan... afwachten... net als op die golfstorm... kan zomaar uitgroeien tot orkaan
pi_101440773
Die in de Golf kan nog alle kanten op. Het ene model stuurt het naar Mexico en de ander richting Florida...
pi_101441559
Katia
pi_101442744
die komende orkanen zien er toch zwaar uit :P. gaan ze weer richting NY ?, ik hou me pas een paar dagen bezig met al die schemaatjes dus nog een beetje nieuw voor mij :P
pi_101443630
NYC is vrij uitzonderlijk, komt niet vaak voor. Veelal buigen ze voor die tijd af en raken ze Bermuda of helemaal niets.

Kans is ook aanwezig dat ze niet afbuigen en via Mexico/Carribean/Florida de golf van Mexico in gaan.
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