Hurricane Season 2011 # 2

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Op maandag 1 augustus 2011 16:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Denk dat ze vanavond wordt opgewaardeerd naar Emily.
Gaat langzaam maar gestaag richting TS status

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Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 13:35 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ik vraag me af of het nog wat gaat worden met Emily.
Momenteel lijkt het niet meer dan een tropische storm te worden. Kan komen, omdat deze over teveel land trekt, waardoor ze niet in kracht kan toenemen.

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Forecasting Emily
Model uncertainty is still high for forecasting Emily's track. The 00Z CMC and NOGAPS global models keep Emily on a western track, before recurving to make landfall on the western coast of Florida. The 00Z HWRF and GFDL dynamic
hurricane models both have Emily approaching the eastern coast of Florida, but recurving sharply to the northeast before making landfall. However, the premier global models, GFS and ECMWF, suggest that forecasters should be very cautious.

The 12Z ECMWF did not get a good representation of Emily in its starting conditions, so the forecast Emily did not gain strength and drifted westwards, missing Hispanola. The 00Z GFS does not have any forecast features that could be reasonably associated with Emily in my judgement. From what I can tell, the GFS moves Emily's circulation over Hispanola and Emily then never has a chance to organize. This is disconcerting since the previous 4 runs of the GFS had produced a reasonably robust tropical cyclone with winds near or just exceeding hurricane strength.

Even though the tracks produced by these models are different in their long-term outlooks, they all suggest that Emily will pass by Hispanola close enough for that island's mountains to impact the storm's winds and thus dampen any intensification. However, the 00Z NAM model does not bring Emily near the island, and keeps it moving westwards into the Caribbean sea as a well-organized storm. This, combined with the widely different solutions discussed previously, suggests that people across the Caribbean and living along the Gulf coast should keep an eye on this storm for the next several days.

I would prefer to make an intensity forecast for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. Many storms have weakened considerably after passing by there, and some have dissipated (TS Cindy in 1993, for example).

In light of this uncertainty, the NHC forecast hasn't changed that much. Emily is forecast to turn towards the northwest, making landfall somewhere in southeastern Florida on Saturday as a weak hurricane. (5AM EDT update NHC has adjusted their forecast to the east, so Emily does not make landfall in the next 5 days. Also, Emily does not reach hurricane strength in this forecast.) Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Haiti.

(Bron: Tropical Weather Underground)

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Emily eyes for Haïti
ROUSEAU, Dominica — Tropical Storm Emily was expected to bring heavy rain Tuesday to Puerto Rico after crossing the northeast Caribbean sea on a track that would take it near Haiti within 24 hours.

The storm was expected to bring up to 4 inches of rain to the Leeward and Windward islands and 6 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, enough to cause flash floods and mud slides in areas that have already seen heavy rainfall, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert Dr. Rick Knabb reported that the storm would likely cross over the mountains of Puerto Rico, which could weaken it.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic were at risk for heavy rains and mudslides, The Weather Channel said.

As the storm passed near Dominica overnight, a weather official urged people to hunker down.

"We are just advising everyone to stay put, stay alert," Senior Acting Meteorological Officer Cheryl Etienne Lebanc said on the state-owned radio station. "Now, might not be the time to be venturing out.

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Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 15:43 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
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S Emily GFDL max wind forecast over the next 126 hours

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Erg onduidelijk wat Emily gaat doen...

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Blagoveshchensk Tornado

The Blagoveshchensk tornado is being called one of the strangest weather events in recent memory as meteorologists study the freak Russian tornado. This is the first time in recorded history that a tornado has struck a Russian town.

The Blagoveshchensk tornado took Russian meteorologists by surprise. (from Daily Mail)
People in the far eastern Russian town of about 200,000 are cleaning up the aftermath of the storm, which struck on Sunday. The tornado killed one person, injured around 30, and destroyed cars and tore roofs from houses. Authorities have declared a state of emergency in the town.

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Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 17:14 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Dat moet hier. Zeldzaam krachtige tornado treft Russische stad
Dit topic gaat over orkanen.

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Op woensdag 3 augustus 2011 13:58 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Het is elke keer weer anders. Vanmorgen ging deze nog rechtstreeks op Shanghai en nu lijkt het weer Zuid-Korea te worden.

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'Eugene' strengthens into major hurricane
Hurricane Eugene strengthened into a major category three storm far off the Pacific coast of Mexico on late Tuesday evening, forecasters said. There is no threat to land.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Wednesday last week when it emerged as an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles (kilometers) south of the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala. It rapidly became better organized on Saturday and developed into a tropical storm on Sunday morning, before becoming a hurricane on Monday afternoon.

“Eugene continues to strengthen. Since the last advisory deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage and become more symmetric around the eye,” NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said on Tuesday evening. “Dvorak classifications were 90 knots (103 miles/166 kilometres per hour) at 0000Z, but given the improvement in convective organization since then the initial wind speed is set at 100 knots (115 miles/185 kilometres per hour), in agreement with the latest ADT satellite intensity estimates. This makes Eugene a major hurricane, the third of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.”

As of 2 a.m. PDT (0900 GMT) on Wednesday, the center of Eugene was located about 570 miles (915 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of about 14 miles (22 kilometres) per hour, keeping it far from land.

Maximum sustained winds of Eugene are near 115 miles (185 kilometres) per hour, with higher gusts, making it a category three hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. The storm is not expected to become a category four hurricane.

“Eugene is moving over slowly cooling sea surface temperatures, and the hurricane is likely near peak intensity,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said on early Wednesday morning. “The new intensity forecast calls for a little strengthening this morning followed by a steady weakening over colder waters, with Eugene expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 60 to 72 hours, to a tropical depression in about 96 hours, and to a remnant low in about 120 hours.”

Eugene is the fifth named storm of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Hurricane Dora which formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico earlier this month. As the system stayed far enough from land, Dora caused no damage or casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 1 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.

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Op woensdag 3 augustus 2011 14:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Ow... Zuid Korea, daar kunnen ze nog wel wat water gebruiken