WKN Weer, Klimaat en Natuurrampen
Lees alles over het onstuimige weer op onze planeet, volg orkanen en tornado's, zie hoe vulkanen uitbarsten en hoe Moeder Aarde beeft bij een aardbeving. Alles over de verwoestende kracht van onze planeet en tal van andere natuurverschijnselen.
20% inmiddelsquote:Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
93l (nummer 4 voor de kust van Afrika) lijkt de meeste kans te hebben om uit te groeien tot een zware orkaan.
Volgens mij gaan ze niet samenvoegen.quote:Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 20:39 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Gaan 92l en 93l samenvoegen? 92l gaat met 11 mph en 93l met 13 mph
Ze zijn nu allebei 40%. GFS laat 92l richting Bermuda en New Foundland trekken.
quote:Tropical Concerns for Leewards, Bermuda, Canada
Two tropical systems forecast to soon form in the Atlantic could pass too close for comfort to the Leeward Islands, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next couple of weeks.
As we have been saying here at AccuWeather.com, the Atlantic is locked and loaded with the potential for up to three named systems by August 25.
According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "At least two of these systems may become strong enough and whipped around by high pressure in the central Atlantic in such a way as to pass close to or over Bermuda."
Next up could be the Canadian provinces somewhere from New Brunswick to Newfoundland, essentially the Gulf of St. Lawrence region.
The track, let alone formation of the two systems, is in no way set in stone. However, at this point we wanted to make folks aware of two potential troublemakers.
A shift in track is possible with one or both systems. That shift would bring them closer to, or farther away from, the Antilles, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the U.S.
As of late this week, the two systems were mere tropical waves cruising westward, relatively fresh arrivals from the African continent.
These systems, like many others before and after, will have to battle areas of wind shear and dry air, as revealed by dust originating from the Sahara Desert, along the way.
Interestingly, at least two long-range computer models are seeing the two systems at this early stage and developing them, bringing them around the Atlantic high pressure area, and driving them northward through the western Atlantic.
We are not saying the models have a 100 percent right idea on the storms and their supposed tracks, but we are relaying concerns we have in this matter.
On a personal note, I am not a fan of long-range computer model forecasts in the tropics. However, my 28 years of professional forecasting experience tell me that when two commonly used models are essentially predicting the same outcome with minor variances, the situation is worth watching.
If either of the two or both tropical waves slowly organize and become legitimate named tropical systems, they could become strong enough and large enough to have impact on populated areas.
Size, intensity and exact track of the systems will matter as far as local impacts. Even a weak system could bring a period of disruptive, heavy, gusty squalls to island areas such as the Leewards and Virgin Islands.
Both systems will pass nearby the Leeward Islands first. The first system is on track to approach and pass the Leewards spanning Sunday into Monday (Aug. 14 and 15). The second system is due to pass days later; Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19).
Bermuda may have to deal with the first system spanning Tuesday into Wednesday. The second system would pass near Bermuda the weekend of Aug. 20 and 21.
Part of Atlantic Canada sticks out to the east hundreds of miles relative to the U.S. coast. As a result, at this early stage, people and interests from New Brunswick to Nova Scotia will need to monitor storm development in the tropical Atlantic. The first system would make its run at the region Thursday into Friday of next week (Aug. 18 and 19). The second system would be of concern for the region the week of Aug. 22.
Additionally, shipping and cruising interests will want to watch the situation closely, as the outcome currently most certain is for at least periods of rough seas in the western Atlantic.
Even if both storms were to stay east of the U.S., one or more episodes of rough surf and dangerous rip currents could occur.
Interestingly, it would not take much for an approaching dip in the jet stream to capture one or both systems in such a way as to pull them closer to the East Coast of the U.S.
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
Vóór het internet dacht men dat de oorzaak van domheid een gebrek aan toegang tot informatie was. Inmiddels weten we beter.
Ik denk dat de meeste amateurs zijn.quote:
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
Wat/wie zijn kwaliteitsposters?quote:
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?
Iedereen met solide kennis en mooie infographicsquote:
Vóór het internet dacht men dat de oorzaak van domheid een gebrek aan toegang tot informatie was. Inmiddels weten we beter.
Maar dat kun je op internet wel vinden, als je er interesse in hebt.quote:
[..]
Iedereen met solide kennis en mooie infographics
IDD net bij NASA vandaan wat een ding zeg:)quote:
[..]
Maar dat kun je op internet wel vinden, als je er interesse in hebt.
On the Hunt for the Birth of a Hurricane: How the AIRS spaceborne instrument is helping in the campaign to understand some of Earth's most powerful storms
Het ziet er allemaal weer wat minder uit nu. GFS laat de gebieden maar traag ontwikkelen. Volgens GFS gaat 93l op de Bovenwindse eilanden af. ECMWF en NOGAPS laten helemaal niets zien.
Afwachten wat de volgende run gaat doen.
Afwachten wat de volgende run gaat doen.
Mmmm allemaal op elkaar, doet me denken aan vorig jaar. Alles stelde niets meer voor 
Wel weer een mooi gezicht met 4 op n rij
Wel weer een mooi gezicht met 4 op n rij
Weer of geen weer, altijd actueel www.onweer-online.nl
GFS brengt 93l zelfs nog in de golf (25 Augustus. 
) Beetje ver weg. De nieuwe run loopt nu binnen.
It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.
92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.
94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.
Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.
95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.
Dr. Jeff Masters
) Beetje ver weg. De nieuwe run loopt nu binnen.
It's a busy day in the tropical Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center tracking four areas of interest (Invests.) None of these systems is a danger to any land areas over the next three days. The disturbance of most concern is the one farthest from land, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa two days ago. This wave, (Invest 93L), is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is moving westward at 15 - 20 mph. Recent visible satellite loops show that 93L has lost some of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, and the system is poorly organized, though there is a good deal of spin to the system. There is dry air to its north that is interfering with development. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing high wind shear in excess 20 knots affecting 93L, which has undoubtedly contributed to the storm's loss of organization. Sea surface temperatures are 27.5°C, which is one degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 93L
High wind shear above 20 knots is predicted along 93L's path through Saturday afternoon, followed by a drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the succeeding four days. This should allow the storm to organize over the weekend. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET), have only one model, the GFS, that is indicating significant development of 93L. This model brings 93L near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. NHC gave 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Given 93L's recent struggles, I'd put these odds at 30%.
92L
An African wave midway between the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, near 18°N 45°W, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, (Invest 92L), is being given a 40% chance of development by NHC. Recent visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but no signs of a surface circulation. A Windsat pass from 8:04 am EDT this morning also showed no surface circulation, and noted top winds of around 35 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 92L. Sea surface temperatures are 27 - 27.5°C, which is a degree above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to support a tropical storm.
Forecast for 92L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which should allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. A steady west-northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should make the storm miss the Lesser Antilles by a comfortable margin. However, Bermuda may be at risk from 92L next week.
94L
A broad low pressure system about 700 miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and may be a threat to become a tropical depression early next week. This system, (Invest 94L), is currently headed west-southwest at 10 mph, but is expected to turn northwest later today. Recent visible satellite loops show some spin to the cloud pattern at middle levels of the atmosphere, but no signs of a surface circulation. This system is also battling dry air, which is keeping the its heavy thunderstorms relatively meager. The SHIPS model is showing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting 94L. Sea surface temperatures are 28°C.
Forecast for 94L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted along 94L's path over the coming five days, which should allow slow development, if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show no development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8am outlook. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L.
95L
The final invest out there is an area of disturbed weather along on old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. This sytem, Invest 95L, is headed northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Koers van Franklin lijkt gunstig voor ons tot nu toe 
Weer of geen weer, altijd actueel www.onweer-online.nl
Ik hoop het..quote:
Koers van Franklin lijkt gunstig voor ons tot nu toe
93l is van de kaarten verdwenen. GFS (andere modellen ook niet) laat het ook niet meer terugkomen in deze run (0.00uur)
Tropische Depressie 7 trekt richting Bermuda..
Tropische Depressie 7 trekt richting Bermuda..
Nu al bij TD 7 en dan Augustus nog worden afgemaakt en komen September en Oktober nog.
Aardig actief dus alleen nog steeds geen orkaan.
Aardig actief dus alleen nog steeds geen orkaan.
