Hurricane Season 2011 # 2

quote:

Negen doden door tyfoon in ZuidKorea
\Negen mensen zijn maandag dood aangetroffen en drie anderen zijn vermist na de doortocht van tyfoon Meari in Zuid-Korea. Dat melden de reddingsdiensten.

De storm is nu op weg naar Noord-Korea. Vorige week eiste de tyfoon ook al 30 mensenlevens op de Filipijnen en in Vietnam. (belga/jv)

quote:

Op dinsdag 28 juni 2011 09:38 schreef aloa het volgende:
50% nu in de Golf van Mexico.

quote:

Op donderdag 7 juli 2011 15:23 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Zo te zien begint het een beetje te komen

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op donderdag 7 juli 2011 16:36 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Gebied bij Florida lijkt nog de minste kans te hebben om wat te worden. Die in het Caribisch gebied zou wat kunnen worden. Afwachten..

quote:

Op vrijdag 8 juli 2011 10:10 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Florida inmiddels 30% die verder weg bijna 0%

quote:

Op vrijdag 8 juli 2011 13:53 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:

[..]

Ah joh, het is nog maar juli. September/Oktober zijn de echte maanden he!

quote:

Powerful typhoon takes aim for Japan
A powerful typhoon could strike mainland Japan early next week.

Widespread adverse rain, wind and sea impact is possible, even for site of the tsunami disaster and nuclear site.

Ma-on, which gained typhoon status east of the Northern Mariana Islands on Wednesday, will intensify markedly over the northern Philippines Sea Thursday through Saturday. This dramatic strengthening of Ma-on could culminate in super typhoon status for a time over open water.

Storm movement, towards the west on Wednesday, is likely to become northwesterly or even northerly by the end of the week.

Given a late-week turn towards the north, the center of Ma-on could be nearing the southwestern shores of Japan early next week packing potentially destructive winds, flooding rain and dangerous storm tides.

Storms of the kind that Ma-on is likely to become can unload extreme rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with flooding and mudslides, upon reaching Japan.

Depending upon storm intensity at landfall, winds above hurricane strength could unleash widespread destruction.

Greater Tokyo is unlikely to feel the worst of the storm, no matter its ultimate track. Still, flooding rain and damaging winds could take place in the early to middle parts of the week.

Likewise, in northeastern Honshu, at the site of the March tsunami and nuclear disasters, there is the potential for heavy rain, high winds and rough seas next week.

quote:

Op vrijdag 15 juli 2011 10:55 schreef aloa het volgende:
Een 2e storm in de West Pacific.
Ma-on is ondertussen een cat 4.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op zondag 17 juli 2011 22:46 schreef aloa het volgende:
Tropical Depression Two

[ afbeelding ]

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 18 July, 2011 : - - Tropical Depression 2 developed Sunday afternoon and strengthened into Tropical Storm Bret Sunday evening. As of 2 a.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Bret was located about 75 miles northwest of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, and has winds near 45 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen some over the next couple of days, but is currently expected to remain a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Bret was moving very slowly to the south-southeast, around 4 miles per hour. Tropical Storm Bret is expected to move very little through the early morning hours of Monday morning, but begin a slow motion to the north-northeast during the day on Monday.

Bret should bring about two to four inches of rain, with locally heavier amounts possiblle, as well as tropical storm force winds over the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warn is in effect for Grand Bahama Island and the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas.

quote:

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30�C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.

quote:

Op maandag 18 juli 2011 13:59 schreef aloa het volgende:
90% nu in de oost pacific. Dora komt er aan.

quote:

Tropical wave in central atlantic near PR sat, Bahamas after. Potential threat Fla, then perhaps gulf after. It has the look of trouble

quote:

Op woensdag 20 juli 2011 16:56 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

ik denk dat hij voor volgende week bedoelt. Dan lijkt daar inderdaad iets te ontstaan.

quote:

Op woensdag 20 juli 2011 16:56 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

ik denk dat hij voor volgende week bedoelt. Dan lijkt daar inderdaad iets te ontstaan.

quote:

Op vrijdag 22 juli 2011 13:31 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

20% inmiddels voor dat gebied. Althans, ik denk dat het die is. Zal dit dan de eerste echte orkaan worden of gaat die ook afbuigen. Krijgen we dit jaar weer zon jaar dat alles afbuigt, net als 2010 Geen idee wat die hittegolf daar voor invloed op heeft.

quote:

Op donderdag 28 juli 2011 11:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
20% in de oost pacific. Deze lijkt wel weer een orkaan te gaan worden, volgens GFS.

quote:

TS Don has a totally different look to it tonight than it did last night. It is still not very impressive as far as tropical storms go but it is getting better organized. The latest info from the NHC indicates that Don will make landfall somewhere just north of Brownsville, Texas tomorrow night. How strong it will be once it gets there is still in question. There is a window of opportunity for Don to become a hurricane but it could just as easily weaken or simply stay at 50 mph. Why the uncertainty? Because the atmosphere is complex and there are only a few observations in the grand scheme of things for computer models to ingest and make something of. It really is tough- predicting intensity. This is why it is important to be aware and understand tropical cyclones for their hazards and not just numbers like 50 mph or 80 mph. Don will bring heavy rain, squalls with strong winds and coastal surge flooding. The severity of these effects will depend on many factors and whether the storm is pulsing up or breathing out, so to speak. The great thing is that we can monitor on radar from Corpus Christi or Brownsville and see what is going on in near real time.

quote:

Op vrijdag 29 juli 2011 09:50 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Welk forum is dat dan?
Ik volg deze vaak: http://www.wunderground.c(...)t.html?entrynum=1860

quote:

Op vrijdag 29 juli 2011 09:30 schreef aloa het volgende:
30% nu.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op vrijdag 29 juli 2011 13:29 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Dit kon wel eens een linke worden... ben benieuwd wat deze gaat brengen.
'Emily' on the move

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op vrijdag 29 juli 2011 15:20 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Ik denk dat deze gewoon de carbbiean in gaat.

quote:

Op vrijdag 29 juli 2011 15:31 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

Of net als Katrina afbuigen naar Florida vervolgens de golf in en uitgroeien tot een monsterorkaan

quote:

Op maandag 1 augustus 2011 09:23 schreef aloa het volgende:
91l is nu weer 90%

quote:

Op zaterdag 30 juli 2011 23:18 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Bye bye Okinawa

quote:

Op maandag 1 augustus 2011 16:46 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Ja als 91L nog ooit iets gaat worden.
Ziet er steeds minder goed uit.

quote:

1. THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

quote:

Op maandag 1 augustus 2011 16:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Denk dat ze vanavond wordt opgewaardeerd naar Emily.
Gaat langzaam maar gestaag richting TS status

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 13:35 schreef aloa het volgende:
Ik vraag me af of het nog wat gaat worden met Emily.
Momenteel lijkt het niet meer dan een tropische storm te worden. Kan komen, omdat deze over teveel land trekt, waardoor ze niet in kracht kan toenemen.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Forecasting Emily
Model uncertainty is still high for forecasting Emily's track. The 00Z CMC and NOGAPS global models keep Emily on a western track, before recurving to make landfall on the western coast of Florida. The 00Z HWRF and GFDL dynamic
hurricane models both have Emily approaching the eastern coast of Florida, but recurving sharply to the northeast before making landfall. However, the premier global models, GFS and ECMWF, suggest that forecasters should be very cautious.

The 12Z ECMWF did not get a good representation of Emily in its starting conditions, so the forecast Emily did not gain strength and drifted westwards, missing Hispanola. The 00Z GFS does not have any forecast features that could be reasonably associated with Emily in my judgement. From what I can tell, the GFS moves Emily's circulation over Hispanola and Emily then never has a chance to organize. This is disconcerting since the previous 4 runs of the GFS had produced a reasonably robust tropical cyclone with winds near or just exceeding hurricane strength.

Even though the tracks produced by these models are different in their long-term outlooks, they all suggest that Emily will pass by Hispanola close enough for that island's mountains to impact the storm's winds and thus dampen any intensification. However, the 00Z NAM model does not bring Emily near the island, and keeps it moving westwards into the Caribbean sea as a well-organized storm. This, combined with the widely different solutions discussed previously, suggests that people across the Caribbean and living along the Gulf coast should keep an eye on this storm for the next several days.

I would prefer to make an intensity forecast for Emily after it has cleared the island of Hispanola and it's tall mountains. Many storms have weakened considerably after passing by there, and some have dissipated (TS Cindy in 1993, for example).

In light of this uncertainty, the NHC forecast hasn't changed that much. Emily is forecast to turn towards the northwest, making landfall somewhere in southeastern Florida on Saturday as a weak hurricane. (5AM EDT update NHC has adjusted their forecast to the east, so Emily does not make landfall in the next 5 days. Also, Emily does not reach hurricane strength in this forecast.) Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Haiti.

(Bron: Tropical Weather Underground)

quote:

Emily eyes for Ha�ti
ROUSEAU, Dominica — Tropical Storm Emily was expected to bring heavy rain Tuesday to Puerto Rico after crossing the northeast Caribbean sea on a track that would take it near Haiti within 24 hours.

The storm was expected to bring up to 4 inches of rain to the Leeward and Windward islands and 6 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, enough to cause flash floods and mud slides in areas that have already seen heavy rainfall, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert Dr. Rick Knabb reported that the storm would likely cross over the mountains of Puerto Rico, which could weaken it.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic were at risk for heavy rains and mudslides, The Weather Channel said.

As the storm passed near Dominica overnight, a weather official urged people to hunker down.

"We are just advising everyone to stay put, stay alert," Senior Acting Meteorological Officer Cheryl Etienne Lebanc said on the state-owned radio station. "Now, might not be the time to be venturing out.

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 15:43 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]
S Emily GFDL max wind forecast over the next 126 hours

[..]

Erg onduidelijk wat Emily gaat doen...

quote:

Blagoveshchensk Tornado

The Blagoveshchensk tornado is being called one of the strangest weather events in recent memory as meteorologists study the freak Russian tornado. This is the first time in recorded history that a tornado has struck a Russian town.

The Blagoveshchensk tornado took Russian meteorologists by surprise. (from Daily Mail)
People in the far eastern Russian town of about 200,000 are cleaning up the aftermath of the storm, which struck on Sunday. The tornado killed one person, injured around 30, and destroyed cars and tore roofs from houses. Authorities have declared a state of emergency in the town.

quote:

Op dinsdag 2 augustus 2011 17:14 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Dat moet hier. Zeldzaam krachtige tornado treft Russische stad
Dit topic gaat over orkanen.

quote:

Op woensdag 3 augustus 2011 13:58 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Het is elke keer weer anders. Vanmorgen ging deze nog rechtstreeks op Shanghai en nu lijkt het weer Zuid-Korea te worden.

quote:

'Eugene' strengthens into major hurricane
Hurricane Eugene strengthened into a major category three storm far off the Pacific coast of Mexico on late Tuesday evening, forecasters said. There is no threat to land.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Wednesday last week when it emerged as an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles (kilometers) south of the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala. It rapidly became better organized on Saturday and developed into a tropical storm on Sunday morning, before becoming a hurricane on Monday afternoon.

“Eugene continues to strengthen. Since the last advisory deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage and become more symmetric around the eye,” NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said on Tuesday evening. “Dvorak classifications were 90 knots (103 miles/166 kilometres per hour) at 0000Z, but given the improvement in convective organization since then the initial wind speed is set at 100 knots (115 miles/185 kilometres per hour), in agreement with the latest ADT satellite intensity estimates. This makes Eugene a major hurricane, the third of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.”

As of 2 a.m. PDT (0900 GMT) on Wednesday, the center of Eugene was located about 570 miles (915 kilometers) south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. It is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of about 14 miles (22 kilometres) per hour, keeping it far from land.

Maximum sustained winds of Eugene are near 115 miles (185 kilometres) per hour, with higher gusts, making it a category three hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. The storm is not expected to become a category four hurricane.

“Eugene is moving over slowly cooling sea surface temperatures, and the hurricane is likely near peak intensity,” NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said on early Wednesday morning. “The new intensity forecast calls for a little strengthening this morning followed by a steady weakening over colder waters, with Eugene expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 60 to 72 hours, to a tropical depression in about 96 hours, and to a remnant low in about 120 hours.”

Eugene is the fifth named storm of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Hurricane Dora which formed off the Pacific coast of Mexico earlier this month. As the system stayed far enough from land, Dora caused no damage or casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 1 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.

quote:

Op woensdag 3 augustus 2011 14:00 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

Ow... Zuid Korea, daar kunnen ze nog wel wat water gebruiken

quote:

Op vrijdag 5 augustus 2011 10:33 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
De temperatuur van het water in de golf is lekker hoog

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Hurricane Season Is Looking More Serious

On average, 11 named storms strike the Atlantic basin each year, six of which become hurricanes and two major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 miles an hour. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 65 percent chance that the 2011 hurricane season, which began on June 1, would be above average. It predicted 12 to 18 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes.

With the bulk of storm activity normally in August, September and October, the agency has updated its 2011 hurricane outlook: on Thursday, it said that there is now an 85 percent chance of above-average hurricane activity. Predicted storm numbers have been raised to 14 to 19 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and as many as five major hurricanes.

quote:

Muifa veroorzaakt dijkdoorbraak bij chemische fabriek
Een tropische storm in het noordoosten van China heeft maandag een gat geslagen in een dijk rond een chemische fabriek. Het leger is ingezet om een milieuramp te voorkomen. Dat meldden Chinese staatsmedia.

De fabriek ligt bij Dalian, ten oosten van de hoofdstad Peking. Door de zware storm Muifa ontstonden tot 20 meter hoge golven, die gaten in de dijk sloegen. Omwonenden zijn ge�vacueerd.

Vanwege het naderende noodweer had China eerder al ongeveer een half miljoen mensen ge�vacueerd. Voor de oostkust werden meer dan tien vissersboten met circa 200 bemanningsleden vermist. Muifa komt vermoedelijk later maandag bij Dalian aan land.

quote:

Orkaanseizoen heviger dan verwacht
Het orkaanseizoen in de Atlantische Oceaan wordt dit jaar heviger dan verwacht. Vooral tegen eind oktober dreigen frequentere en intensievere stormen, voorspelt de Amerikaanse Dienst voor Weer en Oceanografie (NOAA).
Verwacht wordt nu dat er veertien tot negentien stormen met windsnelheden van meer dan 62 kilometer per uur zullen komen - stormen dus die sterk genoeg zijn om een naam te krijgen. Zeven tot tien ervan kunnen orkanen worden, drie tot vijf daarvan orkanen van de categorie 3, 4 of 5. In mei had de NOAA twaalf tot achttien met naam genoemde stormen voorspeld en zes tot tien orkanen.

Volgens de gegevens staat daarmee een boven het gemiddelde actief orkaanseizoen voor de boeg - onder andere begunstigd door buitengewoon warme oceaantemperaturen. Het gemiddelde ligt volgens de NOAA bij elf stormen met namen en zes orkanen. Het Atlantische orkaanseizoen begint telkens op 1 juni en eindigt op 30 november. (belga/sam)

quote:

Doden bij tropische storm Noord-Korea

(Novum/AP) - SEOUL - De tropische storm Muifa heeft dinsdag in Noord-Korea aan zeker tien mensen het leven gekost. Een onbekend aantal mensen raakte gewond. Daarnaast werden huizen en gewassen vernietigd. Noord-Korea werd vorige maand ook al getroffen door noodweer, dat leidde tot hevige overstromingen.

Muifa kwam maandagavond aan land in Noord-Korea. Ook het noordoosten van China gaat gebukt onder hevige regenval. Volgens de Chinese meteorologische dienst is er daar 13,5 centimeter regen gevallen.

In Noord-Korea is dinsdag meer dan 970 hectare landbouwgrond verwoest. Ook zijn meer dan honderd woningen met de grond gelijk gemaakt. De tropische storm kostte eerder in de Filipijnen al aan vier mensen het leven. Ook in Zuid-Korea kwamen vier mensen om. Hier worden bovendien twee mensen vermist.

Voordat Muifa aan land kwam, beschadigden door de storm veroorzaakte golven een dijk in China. De dijk, die een chemische fabriek in de stad Dalian moet beschermen, is volgens de Chinese autoriteiten versterkt met stenen en beton. Het gevaar voor de fabriek is afgewend, aldus Beijing.

quote:

Op woensdag 10 augustus 2011 21:21 schreef aloa het volgende:
3 gebieden nu. Het bovenste gebied zijn de restanten van Emily. Voor de kust van Afrika zal nog een gebied ontstaan wat een behoorlijke orkaan kan worden.

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
93l (nummer 4 voor de kust van Afrika) lijkt de meeste kans te hebben om uit te groeien tot een zware orkaan.

quote:

Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 10:24 schreef aloa het volgende:
93l (nummer 4 voor de kust van Afrika) lijkt de meeste kans te hebben om uit te groeien tot een zware orkaan.

quote:

Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 21:39 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Kweenie of dit al eens gevraagd is, maar zijn de kwaliteitsposters hier (en elders in DE) vooral amateurs of ook echt professionele meteorologen?

quote:

Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 22:16 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

[..]

Wat/wie zijn kwaliteitsposters?

quote:

Op donderdag 11 augustus 2011 22:45 schreef aloa het volgende:

[..]

Maar dat kun je op internet wel vinden, als je er interesse in hebt.