De Chinese vastgoed zeepbel

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I'm opening one or two 200m+ threads a week on the average, 1 every 5 days may be right after all.

And given the massive masterplans they are releasing in so many cities I think I'll keep opening tons of threads for a long time.

Keep on mind that in most cities the vacancy rate of offices is either falling or stable in spite of the massive new supply. The net absortion is huge, and the lag till the occupied area matches the current total stock is very short, 1-3 years. The office skyscraper boom will go on for a long time.

Some examples:

Shanghai. See how the vacancy rate collapses in quarters without new supply, and how it skyrockets when they complete many projects at once.
http://www.colliersintern(...)t_Report_Q1_2011.PDF

Same about Tianjin, another hungy mraket. Vacancy rate collapsed 5 full points in one quarter because there wasn't new supply in that period. This is how China works: High vacancy rate and large net absortion in order to avoid bottlenecks.
http://www.colliersintern(...)et-Review-1Q2011.pdf

Beijing is one of the best examples. Jerks everywhere claimed in 2008 that Beijing had more skyscrapers they could fill in years. Look at the vacancy rate chart. A total collapse, and actually Beijing may experience a shortage of A grade offices within 2012 unless they build faster.
http://www.colliersintern(...)Office-BJ-1Q2011.pdf

In most second tier cities vacancy rates are around 20-35%. Mainly because 20-50% of the current stock is actually 'new', completed in the last 5 years. But the vacancy rate is irrelevant, and actually it must stay that high, because in 5 years the market will have absorbed it all, and there will be a shortage of offices if you don't keep building. You can't understand second tier cities from the perspective of mature office markets. You have to check how much does the market take up every year and how long the current stock will last, then you'll understand that you have to build tons of skyscrapers.

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Op dinsdag 14 juni 2011 20:53 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
Maar denk je niet dat, omdat china zo groot is (ook kwa inwoners) dat als er een bubbel barst, dit niet eens overal in China voelbaar hoeft te zijn?

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The debt of the country’s property developers rose 41.3% year on year to 1.05 trillion yuan ($162 billion) by the end of March, according to Wind Information, a Shanghai-based financial data provider. Of 113 listed property developers that had filed their first-quarter reports to Chinese stock exchanges, 25 posted losses and 42 registered slower profit growth from January to March, Shanghai Daily reported Monday. Most of them are small and medium-sized property developers.

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Op dinsdag 21 juni 2011 20:56 schreef droom_econoom8 het volgende:

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Ik denk dat China zo groot is, dat de hele wereld dit gaat voelen.