Olietopic #12 - Recessie op komst

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 08:57 schreef Perrin het volgende:
En niet te vergeten dat we nog even alle voertuigen met verbrandingsmotoren moeten ombouwen naar voertuigen met electromotoren, inclusief nieuwe dikke accu.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 09:02 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Waarvoor je heel veel nu al schaarse (edel)metalen nodig hebt

We're sooooooooooo fucked

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 15:24 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:

Je zou toch denken dat het 'energierendement' van zonnepanelen alleen maar toeneemt net zoals de snelheid van computers?

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The Last Drops: How to Bridge the Gap Between Oil and Green Energy

For all our talk of an online future unbounded by physical limits, life in our increasingly global economy still requires the movement of actual people and things, often over long distances. And without a steady supply of prehistoric hydrocarbons, that movement would come to a halt. More than 95 percent of the vehicles on Earth--from cars to trucks to freighters to jumbo jets--run on oil products, and without them we’d be hard-pressed to commute to the office or import our gadgets, much less till our fields or get food from the farm to our kitchens.

We face some complex choices, not just about where to extract what kind of oil, but also about when to extract it. But find one we must. We have already burned our way through most of the world’s easy oil. Now we’re drilling for the hard stuff: unconventional resources such as shale and heavy oil that will be more difficult and expensive to discover, extract, and refine. The environmental costs are also on the rise. Oil production remains a significant local ecological hazard—as we were reminded by the disastrous failure of the Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico last year--even as oil’s large carbon footprint threatens the global environment as a whole.

Bridging the gap between our current oil economy and an as-yet-undefined clean-energy economy will not be easy. Alternative systems, such as hybrid cars powered by biofuel drawn from oceanic algae farms, may be vastly more sustainable someday. But “sustainability” is an economic concept as much as it is an environmental one. People will always prefer cheap energy to expensive energy. (Indeed, many people in less-wealthy nations require cheap energy simply to survive.) And the process of making alternative energy systems affordable will be long and uncertain, in part because the oil-based systems they must compete against (internal combustion engines, for instance) will themselves become even more efficient and alluring.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 21:09 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Ik vind het een beetje samenraapsel van dingen. Ze hebben het over de verschillende soorten bronnen die we nog tot onze beschikking kunnen hebben. Bij sommige techologien zet men er dan nog even de eroei bij. Verder springt men dan nog een paar keer op de tak van co2 uitstoot en het afvangen ervan. Voornamelijk lijkt het mij over komen als een artikel om zo lang mogelijk de transitie naar een duurzame energievoorziening uit stellen goed te praten alleen omdat we nog meer olie kunnen winnen.

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But of course, we don’t live in a perfect world. For now, oil producers will do what they have always done, which is to extract oil as cheaply as they can. And oil consumers will follow suit, buying the cheapest energy they can. We may eventually ask the market to take the true costs of production into account, perhaps by way of a carbon tax or some kind of climate regulation. Or we may not. Energy policy has never been particularly far-sighted. There is little chance that the transition to a clean-energy economy will be entirely clean. It will require trade-offs and compromises, and the cost of those trade-offs and compromises will rise with every year that we wait to get serious about moving away from oil.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 06:31 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Oh ja, goed idee, als ze nu investeren in een experimentele techniek hebben we vast over tien jaar al honderden werkende centrales. Want zoveel hebben we er nodig om het gebrek aan olie op te kunnen vangen.

Even ter vergelijking, om dezelfde hoeveelheid energie op te wekken als we nu uit olie halen hebben we 6800 kerncentrales nodig. Er zijn er momenteel 400 op de wereld.

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Conclusion
Gaining an illustrative picture of a subject is very much a matter of habit. When
considering the consequences of peak oil, no everyday experiences and only few historical
parallels are at hand. It is therefore difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being
gradually deprived of one of our civilisation’s most important energy sources will be.
Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost
instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail.

Peak oil, however, is unavoidable. This study shows the existence of a very serious risk
that a global transformation of economic and social structures, triggered by a long-term
shortage of important raw materials, will not take place without frictions regarding
security policy. The disintegration of complex economic systems and their interdependent
infrastructures has immediate and in some cases profound effects on many areas of life,
particularly in industrialised countries.

The results of this study provide starting points for further research (cf. Chapter 4). This,
however, should not conceal the fact that the most difficult part of preparing for drastic
shortages in the resource base of the German economy will probably be the task of
implementing suitable preventive measures. The paradigm shift connected with this – less
efficiency, more robustness – contradicts economic logic and can therefore only partly be
left to market forces.

Even if the developments described in this study do not occur as depicted, it is still
necessary and sensible to prepare for peak oil. The time factor may be decisive for a
successful transformation towards post-fossil societies. In order to accelerate democratic
decision processes in this respect, it is necessary to embed the dangers of an eroding
resource basis in the public mind. This is the only way to develop the necessary problem
awareness for prospective settings of the course. In general, decentralised solutions can
indeed be encouraged by centralised agencies, but not developed and implemented. At the
same time, Bundeswehr internal options for preparation must be evaluated and exploited.

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Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 16:20 schreef waht het volgende:
De laatste keer dat de Duitsers met een olie-probleem zaten lag heel Europa in puin.

Verder komt dit wel overeen met het standpunt van de Amerikaanse 'army engineers'.

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http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09DHAHRAN89.html
5. (S/NF) On Apr 6, Jack Moore (protect), Director of Aramco's
Washington office, told the CG and EconOff that Aramco's
Executive Management have grown increasingly concerned about the
new U.S. administration's pledges to end America's dependence on
foreign oil imports. He said that al-Falih once angrily
asserted to him, "We [Aramco] can take care of their addiction!"
(Note: This statement was meant as a threat to cut off Saudi
oil supplies to the U.S. End Note.) However, Moore said that
he has tried to reassure the Executive Management that this was
merely domestic political rhetoric and that the U.S. will
continue to be a strong market for Saudi oil for a long time to
come. [..]
6. (S/NF) Moore said that al-Falih and other senior Executive
Management appear to take the U.S. administration's anti-foreign
oil comments "personally."
[..]

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North Sea gas production falls 25%

North Sea gas production has slumped by 25% in the second quarter of the year, an alarming increase in the rate of decline that will cut tax revenues and could put more pressure on government to agree controversial shale gas developments.

Figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) also show a 36% rise in coal imports, but a leap from 6.3% to 9.6% for the amount of electricity generated by wind and other renewables.

The department records that the output of oil and associated gas liquids fell by 16% in the three months to the end of June, compared with a year earlier – the biggest decline since records began 16 years ago.

This left Britain importing 3.6m tonnes of oil in the second quarter, compared with 2.8m tonnes in the same period of 2010, even though total oil demand fell by 1.7%.

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Op woensdag 31 augustus 2011 16:35 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Vooral opmerkelijk, wat mij betreft, is 't verschil tussen de toon van urgentie in de militaire rapporten en de schijnbare complete desinteresse van politici.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 08:26 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Het is langere-termijn denken hè? De politiek heeft maar een blikveld van maximaal 4 jaar, met lange-termijn-maatregelen win je op de korte termijn geen stemmen.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 08:51 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:
Als je ziet hoe China de zonnecel industrie probeert te monopoliseren, vinden ze kennelijk een strategische asset.

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 12:35 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Waarom zouden ze ook nog een olieland willen veroveren (aangezien we toch bijna op de piek zitten ) in dat opzicht hebben de chinezen volgens mij wel een veel langere termijn waarop hun hun strategische keuzes baseren.

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The End of Economic Growth

You might have heard the news: we're at the end of growth. Growth of the economy, of consumption, of wealth. That this would happen isn’t news to those who’ve followed the writings of Meadows, Heinberg, and many others. What’s different now is that the end of growth may have actually arrived.

On Friday we learned that after only two years of expansion (mid 2009 - mid 2011), the U.S. economy is re-entering recession.

Why is this happening so soon? What's the bigger context here?

We're not just entering a new recession - we're at the end of growth as we've known it.
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We have passed or are near many of the peaks in natural resources, both by drawing down non-renewable resources and by hyperexploiting renewable ones.

As the foundation of oil upon which we've built our industrial system crumbles, we will face direct economic impacts. Hirsch, whose 2005 study for the Department of Energy on the peaking of world oil production is still the gold standard, conducted further studies to try to understand how oil connects to GDP. He concluded that there's a 1-to-1 relationship: for every 1% oil production declines, world GDP declines 1%.