Olietopic #12 - Recessie op komst

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Op maandag 3 oktober 2011 14:59 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Yergin heeft trouwens een nieuw boek. Heeft iemand het al gelezen?

http://www.amazon.com/Que(...)id=1317646744&sr=8-1

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The Energy Expert You Shouldn’t Trust

This could be a dangerous reliance, for Yergin is an advocate for the fossil fuel community, not an honest broker of information. Nearly all the data cited in the book is from his company and is proprietary and non-public, so it can’t be verified or challenged. He doesn’t appear to take seriously the views of people he doesn’t agree with, and they are not included in his extensive bibliography or interviewee list. When he makes (or quotes himself making) forecasts, it is almost always at the high end of “as much as,” putting the best possible picture on things. He treats overall supplies and continued growth as assured. He is skeptical only when it comes to the concept that new sources of energy could upset the status quo.

One thing Yergin never asks, though, is what if he’s wrong?

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There Will Be Oil, But At What Price?

Conventional crude ended its 150-year-long growth trajectory in 2004 and flattened out around 74 million barrels per day. Crude supply did not budge when oil prices tripled from 2004 to 2008, but global demand remained firm, shrugging off a recessionary dip in 2009. All the growth in supply since then was not crude but unconventional liquids, including natural gas liquids, biofuels, refinery gains, synthetic oil from tar sands, and other marginal resources. These liquids are by no means equivalent to crude. Yergin's calming charts include these unconventional liquids and hide the fundamental issue of the depletion of mature fields. They also hide the declining energy density, higher cost, and lower flow rates of these new resources.

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Op maandag 11 juli 2011 15:24 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Hoe zit het eigenlijk met die zonnepanelen in de sahara? Kunnen we afhankelijk blijven van Noord-Afrika en het M-O voor onze energiebehoeftes

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Je zou toch denken dat het 'energierendement' van zonnepanelen alleen maar toeneemt net zoals de snelheid van computers?

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Op dinsdag 18 oktober 2011 13:27 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

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Als ik het goed heb is Brent een wat lichtere oliesoort waardoor je ontzwavelings - raffinage installaties niet zoveel hoeven te werken en volgens mij was er een tekort aan ontzwaveling - raffinage voor de zwaardere oliesoorten.

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Op dinsdag 18 oktober 2011 15:03 schreef tjoptjop het volgende:
Van wat ik begrepen heb is het verschil voornamelijk vanwege de invoer van Canadese olie icm beperkte raffinage capaciteit in dat gebied en geen directe verbinding naar de Golf.

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IEA Sees Dire Future For Climate, Energy Without New Technology

PARIS -(Dow Jones)- The world is headed for a "dire future" where high energy prices drag on economic growth and global average temperatures rise by more than 3.5 Celsius unless significant innovations to lower the cost of clean energy and carbon capture technology, said the International Energy Agency Wednesday.

Speaking at the conclusion of a two-day meeting with international energy ministers and business leaders in Paris, senior officials from the agency painted a gloomy picture of the world's current trajectory.

The meeting concluded that growth in energy demand will be powered largely by coal and the only hope of restraining the rise in global temperatures to safe levels is to hope that the creation of cheaper technologies to capture carbon dioxide "might eventually allow it to be used in a more environmentally benign manner."

The meeting, which was attended for the first time by ministers from a large number of emerging economies, was a clear acknowledgement of how economic realities conflict with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

"The scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous," the IEA said.

Growing dependence on fossil fuels will also be economically damaging, it said. "Persistently high levels of spending on energy imports would impose a drag on economic growth in many countries," it said. "The risk of serious energy supply disruptions would continue to mount."

High oil prices this year have contributed to the economic slowdown many countries are currently experiencing, said the head of the IEA's oil markets division, David Fyfe.

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Fat Replaces Oil for F-16s as Biofuels Head to War: Commodities

The U.S. Air Force is set to certify all of its 40-plus aircraft models to burn fuels derived from waste oils and plants by 2013, three years ahead of target, Air Force Deputy Assistant Secretary Kevin Geiss said. The Army wants 25 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. The Navy and Marines aim to shift half their energy use from oil, gas and coal by 2020.

“Reliance on fossil fuels is simply too much of a vulnerability for a military organization to have,” U.S. Navy Secretary Raymond Mabus said in an interview. “We’ve been certifying aircraft on biofuels. We’re doing solar and wind, geothermal, hydrothermal, wave, things like that on our bases.”

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Kuwait Sets Biggest Gulf Clean-Energy Goal to Boost Oil Exports

Sun-drenched Kuwait, a desert nation with no solar-power plants and electricity demand that’s growing about 8 percent a year, has set the most ambitious target for using renewable energy in the Gulf region.

OPEC’s fifth-biggest oil producer, whose air conditioners run cheaply off state-subsidized oil-fired power plants, aims to generate 10 percent of its electricity from sustainable sources by 2020, said Eyad Ali al-Falah, assistant undersecretary for technical services at the Ministry of Electricity and Water.

Kuwait is trying to free up oil for export and expand its generation capacity to support increased tourism, manufacturing and home building in a $112 billion development program.

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 15:29 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 15:30 schreef stbabylon het volgende:

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Maar er is nog ladingen olie! Echt!

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Op donderdag 27 oktober 2011 17:15 schreef tjoptjop het volgende:

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Klopt, olie zal nooit opraken.

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Cash generation from operations was $11.5 billion during the third quarter. This is, yet again, a new quarterly record for the company and has resulted from continued strong operational performance.

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CNN: Former military leaders call for 30% cut in oil consumption

Conway was part of a group of 11 recently retired three- and four-star generals and admirals who prepared a report on American energy dependence as a national security threat.

In the report, Conway said that an oil tanker attack might now be beyond al Qaeda's capabilities, but the intent was clear.

He and the other military leaders said oil imports are directly linked to security, and that political compromise and resolve are necessary to slash demand by 30% within 10 years. Present circumstances give other countries or terrorists too much power to choke off oil supplies and cripple the U.S. economy, they say.

"Weaning America from oil in substantive ways will make us safer as a nation," the report says. "The pace and consistency of our country's movement along the path to energy security is a vital national security challenge."

Retired U.S. Army Gen. Paul Kern, the chairman of the group that debated and wrote the report, said Tuesday that too often the energy debate only focuses on short-term concerns, with long-term goals postponed.

"The time has come," Gen Kern told CNN. We can't put this off anymore."

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Op woensdag 2 november 2011 07:57 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Zeggen dat je 30% minder olie moet verbruiken is natuurlijk makkelijk en zou zeker goed zijn, maar hij zegt er niet bij hoe zeker?

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Mexico's Pemex Oil Production Slips In First Week Of November

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexico's state-run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said on Monday that oil production in the first week of November averaged 2.512 million barrels a day, compared with full-month October's average of 2.563 million barrels a day.

Pemex said in a production report that in the Nov. 1-6 period, it sent an average of 1.497 million barrels a day of crude oil to export terminals, versus 1.414 million barrels a day on average in October. In the November period, Pemex kept 1.084 million barrels a day on average for its national refineries, compared with 1.158 million barrels a day last month.

The state oil monopoly has maintained crude-oil exports at relatively high levels this year, as it imports increasingly large quantities of gasoline, diesel fuel and propane gas, due to a lack of refinery capacity.

[In its latest trade report, Mexico's National Statistics Institute said that September's petroleum imports rose 79% as compared with the year-ago month, to $4.28 billion, and petroleum exports of mostly crude oil grew 31.8%, to $4.37 billion, making the nation a net petroleum exporter by a small margin for the month in dollar terms.

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Op woensdag 2 november 2011 07:57 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Zeggen dat je 30% minder olie moet verbruiken is natuurlijk makkelijk en zou zeker goed zijn, maar hij zegt er niet bij hoe zeker?

Time to Deliver

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IEA Chief Economist delivers keynote speech at B20 Business Summit
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On investment in energy infrastructure…
The World Energy Outlook 2011, which will be released on 9 November, will show that $38 trillion of investment is required to meet projected energy demand through to 2035 and that investors in energy projects are facing a multitude of risks.

Breaking down this cumulative investment, Dr Birol explained that $16.9 trillion will be require for power; $10 trillion for oil; $9.5 trillion for natural gas; $1.1 trillion for coal; and $0.3 trillion for biofuels.

On access to energy…
Dr. Birol also stressed that over 1.3 billion people, around 20% of the global population, lack access to electricity, and 2.7 billion people, around 40% of the population, are without clean cooking facilities.

Investment of USD 48 billion per year is needed to provide universal energy access to the billions of the world's poor who lack it by 2030. While this is more than five times the current level of investment to expand energy access, it only represents around 3% of projected global energy investment.

On fossil fuel subsidies…
Fossil-fuel subsidies result in an economically inefficient allocation of resources and market distortions, while often failing to meet their intended objectives, Dr. Birol argued, presenting the findings of the report prepared for G20 Leaders.

Fossil fuel subsidies have been driven higher by the rebound in international energy prices. They totalled $409 billion in 2010 – about $110 billion up on 2009.

He warned that without further reform, spending on fossil-fuel consumption subsidies is set to reach $660 billion in 2020, or 0.7% of global GDP.
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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 09:08 schreef waht het volgende:

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Jazeker, verbruik van fossiele brandstoffen wordt hier en daar gesubsidieerd.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 09:14 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:

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"Subsidie" is een groot woord: de eigen inwoners mogen het simpelweg kopen voor een prijs lager dan de wereldmarkt. Ik zou willen dat wij dat mochten met aardgas.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 10:29 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Maar goed dat dat niet kan, dan zijn je voorraden helemaal zo op! Lage prijzen werken verspilling in de hand.

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Op dinsdag 8 november 2011 10:29 schreef Q. het volgende:

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Maar goed dat dat niet kan, dan zijn je voorraden helemaal zo op! Lage prijzen werken verspilling in de hand.

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'Alleen Iran wil de Grieken nog olie verkopen'

Griekenland is afhankelijk van Iraanse olie, omdat de meeste leveranciers geen olie meer willen verkopen aan de Grieken en banken weigeren een overeenkomst te financieren. Maar de Verenigde Staten en Europa willen juist de handel met Iran aan banden leggen, vanwege het nucleaire programma van het land.

Dat meldt persbureau Reuters vandaag op basis van verklaringen van oliehandelaren. 'Bedrijven als die van ons kunnen niet aan Griekenland leveren. Het risico is te groot', zegt een handelaar van een groot internationaal oliebedrijf tegen Reuters. 'Ons financieel departement weigert gewoon zaken te doen met Griekenland. Niet dat het land ons niet heeft betaald. Het is gewoon een voorzorgsmaatregel.