Het Grote Klimaatverandering Topic #2

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'Hoge gletsjers hebben geen last van klimaatverandering'
donderdag 15 december 2011 om 21u52

Door de opwarming van de aarde smelten de gletsjers in Centraal-Azië minder snel dan in andere bergregio's. De mensen die afhankelijk zijn van het gletsjerwater zullen daardoor nog minstens enkele decennia beschermd blijven tegen de effecten van de klimaatverandering, zeggen wetenschappers.

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Op dinsdag 20 december 2011 22:33 schreef LunaAurea het volgende:
Ik heb een paar vragen over het klimaatsverandering. Van alle kanten hoor ik hier stellingen/meningen over, dus een beetje duidelijkheid zou niet verkeerd zijn, want ondertussen zie ik door de bomen het bos niet meer ;-). Daarom zou ik graag goed onderbouwde argumenten zien en geen argumenten die in zo maar uit de lucht gegrepen zijn.

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• Is onze CO2 uitstoot echt de grootste veroorzaker van het broeikaseffect?

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En daarmee ook de klimaatverandering?

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• Ik heb de theorie van een klimaatscyclus ook aantal keer voorbij zien komen. We kunnen niks doen aan de opwarming van de aande, want het is een natuurlijk proces? Klopt dit en zijn hier goede bewijzen voor?

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• Is de klimaatverandering echt zo'n ramp? Of maken we het groter dan het werkelijk is?

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Goede insteek, ik zal proberen je te helpen.

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"our work suggests that natural insolation will not be cancelling the impacts of man-made global warming."

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Assuming that ice growth mainly responds to insolation and CO2 forcing, this analogy suggests that the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5 ppmv.

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What would have been (absent humans) is only of academic interest. The two principal mechanisms by which the orbital effects on the regional/seasonal distribution of insolation instigate climate change are melting/growth of ice sheets (thus albedo change –> temperature change) and the slow feedback effect of GHGs responding to temperature change, thus increasing the greenhouse effect. But the huge human-made GHG changes cause ice to be melting all over the planet. So the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to start the next ice age can’t happen — on the contrary, as you can see, the tundra, Greenland and sea ice are melting and shrinking in area. So the increasing albedo mechanism needed to move the planet into the next ice age can’t happen — unless humans go extinct.

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Journalist Elsevier schreef:
Het onderzoek van Skinner's team is een zeldzame belichting van de mogelijk positieve gevolgen van CO2-uitstoot.

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Dr. Luke Skinner, Cambridge University said:
I should say straight up, that our study is not proclaiming good news that we've avoided an ice age, but more that, if we were trying to avoid another ice age, were tried a bit too hard.

The thing to underline is that, if anything, the study kind of suggests that the climate system is quite sensitive to small changes in co2, let alone the huge change that we’ve been responsible for in the last 200 years.

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Journalist Elsevier schreef:
Het broeikasgas CO2 houdt warmte vast, wat ervoor kan zorgen dat de aarde in plaats van een ijstijd, slechts te maken krijgt met een periode van lichte koeling.

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Dr. Luke Skinner, Cambridge University said:
It is important to reiterate that the current insolation forcing and lack of new ice growth mean that orbital-scale variability will not be moderating the effects of anthropogenically induced global warming.

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Journalist Elsevier schreef:
Alles lezen over het klimaat? Bestel hier de speciale editie van Elsevier.

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Extreem koude winter gevolg van opwarming aarde?

maandag 06 februari 2012 om 12u36

Het bitterkoude weer dat België en vooral de rest van Europa in de ban houdt, is mogelijk het gevolg van het smelten van het ijs in de Arctis, waar de opwarming van de aarde het meest voelbaar is.

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Do you consult your dentist about your heart condition? In science, as in any area, reputations are based on knowledge and expertise in a field and on published, peer-reviewed work. If you need surgery, you want a highly experienced expert in the field who has done a large number of the proposed operations.

You published "No Need to Panic About Global Warming" (op-ed, Jan. 27) on climate change by the climate-science equivalent of dentists practicing cardiology. While accomplished in their own fields, most of these authors have no expertise in climate science. The few authors who have such expertise are known to have extreme views that are out of step with nearly every other climate expert. This happens in nearly every field of science. For example, there is a retrovirus expert who does not accept that HIV causes AIDS. And it is instructive to recall that a few scientists continued to state that smoking did not cause cancer, long after that was settled science.

Climate experts know that the long-term warming trend has not abated in the past decade. In fact, it was the warmest decade on record. Observations show unequivocally that our planet is getting hotter. And computer models have recently shown that during periods when there is a smaller increase of surface temperatures, warming is occurring elsewhere in the climate system, typically in the deep ocean. Such periods are a relatively common climate phenomenon, are consistent with our physical understanding of how the climate system works, and certainly do not invalidate our understanding of human-induced warming or the models used to simulate that warming.

Thus, climate experts also know what one of us, Kevin Trenberth, actually meant by the out-of-context, misrepresented quote used in the op-ed. Mr. Trenberth was lamenting the inadequacy of observing systems to fully monitor warming trends in the deep ocean and other aspects of the short-term variations that always occur, together with the long-term human-induced warming trend.

The National Academy of Sciences of the U.S. (set up by President Abraham Lincoln to advise on scientific issues), as well as major national academies of science around the world and every other authoritative body of scientists active in climate research have stated that the science is clear: The world is heating up and humans are primarily responsible. Impacts are already apparent and will increase. Reducing future impacts will require significant reductions in emissions of heat-trapping gases.

Research shows that more than 97% of scientists actively publishing in the field agree that climate change is real and human caused. It would be an act of recklessness for any political leader to disregard the weight of evidence and ignore the enormous risks that climate change clearly poses. In addition, there is very clear evidence that investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy will not only allow the world to avoid the worst risks of climate change, but could also drive decades of economic growth. Just what the doctor ordered.

Kevin Trenberth, Sc.D.

Distinguished Senior Scientist

Climate Analysis Section National Center for Atmospheric Research

La Jolla, Calif.

Kevin Trenberth, Sc.D, Distinguished Senior Scientist, Climate Analysis Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Richard Somerville, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Katharine Hayhoe, Ph.D., Director, Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University

Rasmus Benestad, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Gerald Meehl, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Michael Oppenheimer, Ph.D., Professor of Geosciences; Director, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Princeton University

Peter Gleick, Ph.D., co-founder and president, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security

Michael C. MacCracken, Ph.D., Chief Scientist, Climate Institute, Washington

Michael Mann, Ph.D., Director, Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University

Steven Running, Ph.D., Professor, Director, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of Montana

Robert Corell, Ph.D., Chair, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment; Principal, Global Environment Technology Foundation

Dennis Ojima, Ph.D., Professor, Senior Research Scientist, and Head of the Dept. of Interior's Climate Science Center at Colorado State University

Josh Willis, Ph.D., Climate Scientist, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Matthew England, Ph.D., Professor, Joint Director of the Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australia

Ken Caldeira, Ph.D., Atmospheric Scientist, Dept. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution

Warren Washington, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Terry L. Root, Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

David Karoly, Ph.D., ARC Federation Fellow and Professor, University of Melbourne, Australia

Jeffrey Kiehl, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Donald Wuebbles, Ph.D., Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois

Camille Parmesan, Ph.D., Professor of Biology, University of Texas; Professor of Global Change Biology, Marine Institute, University of Plymouth, UK

Simon Donner, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Canada

Barrett N. Rock, Ph.D., Professor, Complex Systems Research Center and Department of Natural Resources, University of New Hampshire

David Griggs, Ph.D., Professor and Director, Monash Sustainability Institute, Monash University, Australia

Roger N. Jones, Ph.D., Professor, Professorial Research Fellow, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Australia

William L. Chameides, Ph.D., Dean and Professor, School of the Environment, Duke University

Gary Yohe, Ph.D., Professor, Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan University, CT

Robert Watson, Ph.D., Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Chair of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Steven Sherwood, Ph.D., Director, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Chris Rapley, Ph.D., Professor of Climate Science, University College London, UK

Joan Kleypas, Ph.D., Scientist, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research

James J. McCarthy, Ph.D., Professor of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University

Stefan Rahmstorf, Ph.D., Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam University, Germany

Julia Cole, Ph.D., Professor, Geosciences and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona

William H. Schlesinger, Ph.D., President, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies

Jonathan Overpeck, Ph.D., Professor of Geosciences and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona

Eric Rignot, Ph.D., Senior Research Scientist, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Professor of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

Wolfgang Cramer, Professor of Global Ecology, Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology, CNRS, Aix-en-Provence, France

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Zelfs als we de overtrokken klimaatvoorspellingen van het IPCC voor waar aannemen, rechtvaardigt dat economisch gezien nog niet een agressief beleid voor het terugdringen van broeikasgassen.

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Op zondag 12 februari 2012 05:59 schreef El_Matador het volgende:
A - de tijdsspanne van nauwkeurige meetgegevens is veel te kort om een globale opwarming vast te stellen

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B - de metingen zijn zowel technologisch (veel fijnere meettechnologie dan vroeger) als geografisch (urban effects) als economisch (bevestigende resultaten leveren subsidie op) als politiek (als je niet meedoet met de klimaathysterie ben je 'rechts' dus 'fout') gebiast

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C - er is geen oorzakelijk verband vastgesteld tussen CO2 en temperatuurschommelingen (sterker; sommige modellen spreken van een omgekeerd causaal verband)

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D - het is hooghartige antropo-arrogante onzin om te denken dat wij, nietige mensheid, zoiets groots en complex als het aardse klimaat kunnen bepalen, zowel door CO2-uitstoot als CO2-afvangen

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E - er is geen enkel bewijs dat CO2-opslag het klimaat "terug"verandert

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F - de miljarden die -letterlijk- als gebakken lucht worden verhandeld kunnen veel beter gebruikt worden

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G - klimaatveranderingen zijn van alle tijden. Het is de mens die zo stom is om met zijn allen in een rivierdelta (Bangladesh en Randstedelijk Nederland), op laaggelegen oceaaneilanden (Stille Zuidzee en Malediven) en op andere door klimaatverandering gevoelige gebieden te gaan wonen. Of zoals een geniale George Carlin het treffend samenvatte: "You build your house next to an active volcano and wonder why you have lava in the livingroom".

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H - de enige natuurlijke bedreiging voor de mensheid komt van extraterrestrische bronnen; dreigende meteorietinslagen. Investeer DAARIN in plaats van mekkeren over een meer dan natuurlijk en zelfs onontbeerlijk gas