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Cuba krijgt het meest te verduren van Paula

pi_87505749
quote:
Op woensdag 13 oktober 2010 16:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Tyfoon Megi

[ afbeelding ]

Dat wordt een behoorlijke joekel :{
Categorie 4 inmiddels :{
Dit kan weleens een dodelijke typhoon worden.

quote:
Megi, the latest named storm for the western North Pacific Ocean basin, has formed over the southern Philippines Sea.
As of Wednesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Megi was 310 miles west-southwest of Guam and more than 1,300 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Megi held highest sustained winds of 50 mph and was drifting towards the west at about 5 mph.
Megi will strengthen as it tracks towards the west and northwest over open seas for the next few days. Strengthening to a typhoon is forecast. Moreover, rapid strengthening to a major typhoon, even a "super" typhoon, is possible, as both oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable.

Eventually, Megi will either strike the main northern Philippines island of Luzon, or it will veer northward, away from Philippines, over the western Philippines Sea.
Direct typhoon landfall upon heavily settled northern Luzon would pose a serious threat to life and property.
bron
pi_87524406
Hurricane Paula is nu actief -O-

dit lijkt nog wat te worden _O_
-.-
pi_87528546
Lekker veel regen voor Cuba. Zal het hierna rustig worden?
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
pi_87529366
ik denk dat het voorlopig daar rumourig blijft })
Yvonne schreef op maandag 31 oktober 2011 @
13:59:43 in DEF SC #282 aan AchJa & Co
Vanaf hier en nu stopt het in DEF én op FOK!
Ik wil hier een normale SC zonder gebitch!
pi_87530684
Apart topic gemaakt voor Megi

Orkaan (MEGI) op weg naar de Filipijnen
pi_87542458
Ten oosten van India lijkt ook iets te ontstaan.
pi_87544896
Paula


quote:
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.
pi_87568829
Nu weer een nieuw gebied van 10% bij de Carraïben wat potentieel heeft om zich te ontwikkelen.
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
  Moderator dinsdag 19 oktober 2010 @ 15:46:57 #260
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87716560
quote:
Op vrijdag 15 oktober 2010 13:28 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Nu weer een nieuw gebied van 10% bij de Carraïben wat potentieel heeft om zich te ontwikkelen.
40% inmiddels

Leuke anekdote van zon hurricanewatcher:
quote:
I might have jinxed the system

Even though we humans have no control over the large scale weather systems such as hurricanes, we can often joke about jinxing things one way or another. This may be one of those cases. I said yesterday that I did not think 99L would develop- this was due to land interaction and the fact that the global models were pushing it west in to Central America and/or out in to the east Pacific. Well, this is clearly not happening and it may be that sooner rather than later we have a depression on our hands.

We may know more later today as the NHC has tasked a recon plane to go out and investigate the system if it looks to be on the uptick this afternoon. Just looking at satellite shots, you can clearly see it is growing in size and organization and it is not moving in to Central America

The GFDL model was the most robust with development- showing it becoming quite a strong hurricane in the northwest Caribbean over the next five days

Even the HWRF model is suggesting fairly significant development- though at a slow pace.

The bottom line is that we will need to monitor this system closer now. People with interests in the northwest Caribbean from the Caymans to western Cuba to the Yucatan could be dealing with off and on squalls as the system organizes and drifts slowly around the region. I'll post another update later this afternoon when/if the recon plane heads out to investigate.
pi_87717001
Dat zal weer voor problemen zorgen in Nicaragua en Honduras

[ Bericht 3% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 19-10-2010 15:58:30 ]
  Moderator woensdag 20 oktober 2010 @ 09:06:27 #262
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87742109
70% inmiddels
Richard is on its way
pi_87743756
En Richard gaat snel weer oplossen omdat hij de Golf niet in zal trekken voor de zoveelste keer.
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
  Moderator donderdag 21 oktober 2010 @ 09:56:18 #264
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87783954


Myanmar krijgt ook weer een pleur water.
Hopelijk gaat deze niet in zeer korte tijd ook enorm groeien zoals Nargis :{
pi_87785743
Altijd gevaarlijk in dat gebied.

pi_87785936
Misschien dat er toch nog wat gaat gebeuren in de Golf

pi_87787571
Ik denk het niet, die depressie wordt nog even TS (cat. 1 moet ik nog zien) en lost daarna op boven Yucatan.
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
  Moderator donderdag 21 oktober 2010 @ 16:11:48 #268
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87797051


quote:
Thursday October 21, 2010 7:00 AM EDT Update
TD#19 is drifting around in the western Caribbean, but forecast to move over the Yucatan closer to Monday as a hurricane, those in the Yucatan will want to watch this system very closely, and possibly Florida later.

If the forecast verifies, after weakening over the Yucatan it may have a chance to enter the southern Gulf, and from there possibly affect the north central or northwestern Gulf, a large high pressure should keep it west of Florida, again if it does make it into the Gulf shear will likely affect it adversely and keep the system weak.

If the system moves further north more quickly than forecast it could maintain hurricane strength and approach Florida from the west, so it will be worth watching in that scenario. If this situation were to occur, it would probably be near the 26th..

Based on the official forecast, the Yucatan has the most to worry from the system, and beyond some rainfall for a portion of the gulf coast west of Florida seems most likely, but there will be plenty of time to watch the system over the coming days.
pi_87797088
Let's hope so...
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
  Moderator donderdag 21 oktober 2010 @ 16:25:16 #270
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87797634


TS19 wordt binnen een uurtje ofzo geupgrade naar Richard
pi_87801045
Ik denk dat Richard nog wel even cat. 2 gaat worden voordat hij landfall gaat maken.
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
pi_87820155


:{
  vrijdag 22 oktober 2010 @ 08:32:35 #273
34663 SpeedyGJ
Zo snel als de bliksem O+
pi_87820526
TS: Hey daar hebben we Cat 1! Alles goed :)
Cat 1: Jazeker maar ik ga aan de koffie dus laat het verder over aan Cat 2 ;)

:')
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPueUwKfPaGH7v48LZlltkg" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">WSDokkum Youtube</a>
pi_87823329
Ja dat gaat wel bizar snel van cat. 1 naar 2. Zijn de warmteverschillen van het zeewater daar zo groot ofzo? Of het heeft te maken met wind shear, kan ook.
's Avonds een man, overdags rustig an
  Moderator vrijdag 22 oktober 2010 @ 11:30:57 #275
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_87824979
quote:
1s.gif Op vrijdag 22 oktober 2010 10:38 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ja dat gaat wel bizar snel van cat. 1 naar 2. Zijn de warmteverschillen van het zeewater daar zo groot ofzo? Of het heeft te maken met wind shear, kan ook.
Het wordt gewoon weer een catastrofale CATEGORIE VIER storm die Birma gaat treffen :{
Of is dat rode nog een drie? :{ Maar als het zo snel groeit... dan krijgen ze het daar weer zo onverwachts voor de kiezen :{

"Nargis-flasback heeft"
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