Hurricane Season 2010 # 3

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Op maandag 6 september 2010 11:26 schreef aloa het volgende:
Kaartje voor komende zaterdag.
Dit lijkt dan Igor te gaan worden.

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Op maandag 6 september 2010 13:40 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Tropische storm Hermine ontstaan

Een tropische depressie in het zuidwestelijk gedeelte van de Golf van Mexico is maandag ochtend uitgegroeid tot een tropische storm. De tropische storm is de achtste van het orkaanseizoen van 2010 en heeft de naam Hermine gekregen. Hermine koerst naar de kust van Mexico en de Verenigde Staten en heeft momenteel windsnelheden van 65 kilometer per uur. De tropische storm lag maandagochtend ongeveer 375 kilometer ten zuidoosten van La Pesca, Mexico. De storm verplaatst zich noordwaarts met een snelheid van 13 kilometer per uur. Na alle verwachtingen zal Hermine dinsdagochtend aan land gaan ter hoogte van de noordoost hoek van Mexico of zuidelijke punt van Texas.


Bron: NASA - Hier een satellietopname van de tropische storm Hermine

Volgens het National Hurricane Center kan Hermine in het noordoosten van Mexico en in het zuidwesten van Texas grote hoeveelheden neerslag achter gaan laten die op kunnen lopen tot 200mm, in de afgelegen gebieden kan er zelfs een hoeveelheid van 300mm aan neerslag gaan vallen. Deze hoeveelheden regen kunnen levensbedreigende situaties tot het gevolg hebben. Overstromingen en modderlawines behoren tot de mogelijkheden in de hogere gelegen gebieden van noordoost Mexico. Momenteel is er een tropische storm waarschuwing van kracht voor de kust van Mexico van Tampico naar de Rio Grande en de kust van Zuid-Texas van de Rio Grande naar Baffin Bay.

Bron Weerdirect

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Op donderdag 9 september 2010 08:53 schreef meteo-online het volgende:

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Geloof er niet zo enorm veel in dat het daadwerkelijk een systeem wordt, het zal voornamelijk opgevreten worden door Igor of anders samengevoegd worden

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Newly-formed Igor is currently a minimal tropical storm, but it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the upcoming days.
Tropical Storm Igor is churning less than 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest statistics on Igor, including exactly how close the tropical storm is to the islands.
Despite its proximity, residents of the Cape Verde Islands can thank strong winds high in the atmosphere (also known as wind shear) for keeping Igor's impacts minimal on the Cape Verde Islands.
The winds are not only hindering Igor's ability to strengthen into a stronger tropical storm but are also keeping the heaviest rain and tropical storm-force winds west of Igor's center and away from the Cape Verde Islands.
It is possible that the strong wind shear even forces Igor to briefly weaken into a tropical depression at some point today.
A few of Igor's rain squalls could still graze the Cape Verde Islands today, especially the southern and western islands. Rough surf will make swimming and boating for small craft treacherous in the waters surrounding the islands.

Conditions will improve over the Cape Verde Islands on Friday as Igor departs and heads into the open waters of the Atlantic.
The environment over the Atlantic will become more conducive for Igor to intensify than when once-Tropical Storm Gaston passed through. Dry air was an inhibiting factor against Gaston's strengthening, but dry air does not lie in the path of Igor.
After Igor leaves the Cape Verde Islands, the strong wind shear should lessen. That reduction in wind shear, combined with the warm waters of the Atlantic, is why Igor is expected to become a hurricane this weekend.
Igor will not threaten any other land masses for at least a week. However, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be monitoring the possibility that Igor either takes aim at the Lesser Antilles later next week or gets turned northward by a cold front set to emerge from the East Coast of the United States.

Julia on the Horizon?
Igor may not be the only organized tropical system churning in the Atlantic when this weekend comes to an end.
Current models are hinting that the next strong tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa will rapidly strengthen into a named system this weekend, potentially prior to grazing the Cape Verde Islands.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the name "Julia."

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Op zondag 12 september 2010 14:31 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Van Weerwoord:
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Hurricane Igor is living up to its name after rapidly intensifying into a monster Category 4 hurricane Sunday afternoon. The storm could easily become the strongest hurricane of the season thus far.
While Igor fortunately poses no threat to land over the next few days, people in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and along the East Coast of the U.S. should be keeping track of this storm for potential impacts next weekend and beyond.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Igor's maximum sustained winds were estimated to have increased to 140 mph late Sunday afternoon as the storm headed westward over the south-central Atlantic.
While minor fluctuations in intensity can occur, Igor is generally expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane throughout this upcoming week and could even reach Category 5 status for a time.
Fortunately, the storm is expected to remain out to sea through the end of the week, steering clear of the Leeward Islands as it tracks to the west-northwest. Thereafter, computer models all show Igor making a turn more toward the north over the western Atlantic but differ on how soon that will happen.



Igor's track over warm waters and through weak wind shear (strong winds high up in the atmosphere) should allow the storm to remain a major hurricane throughout the week.
Many of the models are indicating that this northward turn will happen before this upcoming weekend and direct Igor right toward Bermuda.
While this is the more likely scenario, there are still some models hinting that the storm may wait a bit longer to curve northward, passing west of Bermuda and drawing closer to the East Coast of the U.S.
Either scenario could bring Igor dangerously close to Newfoundland and perhaps also Nova Scotia.
The bottom line is that people living in or traveling to Bermuda, Atlantic Canada or the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend or early next week should pay close attention to Igor. At the very least, rough surf and potentially deadly rip currents will be a major concern.
So far this season, Earl has been the strongest hurricane, topping out at Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Igor will not have to intensify much further to take Earl's spot at the top.
For more details on the current position, strength and movement of Igor, check out the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

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Op zondag 12 september 2010 21:54 schreef Fredo55 het volgende:
Hoe groot is de kans dat Igor een categorie 5 word?

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Op maandag 13 september 2010 17:09 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

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Laura niet in haar ééntje op haar zeilbootje

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Op maandag 13 september 2010 19:07 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
ze had ook gewoon twee maand later kunnen vertrekken en dus nog twee maand naar school gekunt, de bitch

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Igor remains a monster Category 4 hurricane on a path that could take it dangerously close to Bermuda this weekend.
People living in or soon traveling to the island should pay close attention to this formidable storm and be ready to take appropriate action.
Through the end of the week, Igor will remain a powerful hurricane over the open waters of the Atlantic, passing well north of the Leeward Islands but still bringing increased waves and swells to the region.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has more details on the current location, strength and motion of the storm.
While minor fluctuations in strength will occur, Igor is generally expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane over the next day or two. As the storm starts moving over cooler waters and into stronger wind shear (strong winds high up in the atmosphere) toward the weekend, it should start to weaken.

Despite this weakening, Igor will still be a force to be reckoned with. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to be a Category 3 or strong Category 2 hurricane with it passing dangerously close to Bermuda Friday night into early Saturday.
Damaging winds, flooding rain, extremely rough surf and a storm surge could all become major problems for the island if Igor passes close enough.
This will be especially true if the eye tracks just to the west of Bermuda, putting the island in the right front quadrant of the storm, where winds are strongest and the storm surge is highest.

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Op woensdag 15 september 2010 11:50 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Komen nu pas berichten uit NK
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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 13:23 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Heb je ook plaatsnamen waar die eventueel aan land zou kunnen gaan?

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Op vrijdag 17 september 2010 14:05 schreef Timm-E het volgende:

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Op welke site kun je dit soort beelden vinden?

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Hurricanes to Threaten US Late in September, October

While no hurricanes have thus far made landfall on the U.S., forecast weather patterns during the last part of September into October and the first part of November suggest that may be about to change.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is holding firm with his prediction of 18 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic 2010 hurricane season.
Additionally, Joe still expects multiple direct impacts on the U.S.



As the Cape Verde season winds down in October, which is a typical occurrence, the raging La Nina in the Pacific opens the door for warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to take center stage.
Changing weather patterns and the approach of cool fronts from northern latitudes would then generate and help steer these tropical storms and hurricanes onto the U.S. coastline in the Gulf, and potentially along the Atlantic Seaboard.
Joe stated that the Cape Verde season typically winds down in October, as prior hurricanes have churned and cooled these waters. At the same time, the Asian Monsoon diminishes, ending the parade of disturbances across Africa and the infamous tropical waves around the Cape Verde Islands.
Breeding grounds during the last third of hurricane season typically migrate toward the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and far western Atlantic because of this.



According to Bastardi, "A switch from an El Nino to La Nina pattern is notorious for a jam-packed late hurricane season."
As a result, people in the coastal U.S., especially along the Gulf of Mexico, should not let their guard down.
Joe asserts, "There is an imbalance in the atmosphere, and much more energy has yet to be released."
Incidentally, at least one computer model insists a potent hurricane will form in the western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico before the end of September.

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Op maandag 20 september 2010 19:06 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:

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Ik lees net op Accuweather dat dat inderdaad gaat gebeuren. En die orkaan zal de V.S. ook gaan bereiken. Begin oktober staat dat gepland.

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Op dinsdag 21 september 2010 13:39 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
Ben benieuwd naar dat gebied in de Carraïben.. Lisa gaat niets worden, die wordt tegengehouden door hogedrukgebieden lijkt het wel.

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Igor is trouwens nog steeds flink actief. Nog steeds razen er orkaanwinden rond het centrum en New Foundland krijgt daar een flinke veeg van mee. Zelfs als het centrum van Igor New Foundland is gepasseerd en op rond 60 graden noorderbreedte is aangekomen, wordt Igor nog op orkaansterkte gezet en pas daarna, als hij verder naar het noordwesten koerst, neemt de windsterkte af. Hoe dan ook, het moge duidelijk zijn dat Igor op zeer grote afstand van Europa blijft.

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An area of low pressure over the south central Caribbean may develop into Matthew over the next couple of days as conditions become more favorable for development.
Too much dry air and too much wind shear have been in place for the low to become better organized so far; however, wind shear is weakening as the low moves over very warm water of the Caribbean.



The system could organize into a depression later today and a tropical storm by Saturday.
Whether the system develops or not, it will target Central America with potentially flooding rainfall over the weekend.
The track of the system is still uncertain after it unleashes torrential rainfall over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and southeastern Mexico.
Two different scenarios are that the system will keep moving westward from the Gulf of Honduras into next week or it will first stall then move northward in the Caribbean.
More models are pointing to a conclusion that the system will move northward, over Cuba. This puts Florida at risk for a direct impact from the storm by the middle of next week.
Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for more information on the potential development of this low into Matthew.
More systems are also likely to form in the Caribbean and the southwestern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 11:52 schreef Burnie88 het volgende:
NHC verwacht dat de storm verdwenen zal zijn voor 36% volgende week dinsdag. Dus het wordt spannend. Ik kan me trouwens niet herinneren dat een storm noordwaarts over de Golf heentrok.

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Different Scenarios with Matthew into next Week
There are still different scenarios with Matthew into early next week.
One scenario is that Matthew stalls over Central America and gets torn apart into a remnant low due to friction while being over land.
Another scenario is that Matthew could still turn to the north and head in Florida's direction. Whether it does or not, more tropical moisture will be pulled toward the East late this weekend into next week.
Other tropical disturbances will move into the Caribbean through next week, and these could strengthen and become named tropical systems.
It seems most likely that a disturbance that follows Matthew will be the one that ends up heading farther north toward Cuba and Florida next week.

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Op vrijdag 24 september 2010 21:01 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Mmmm naar Florida, toch nog niet zo'n gek bericht van vanmiddag Als Matthew een pinhole eye krijgt (dit is een zeer smal oog en een indicator voor extreme intensivering.) net zoals Karl en niet te vergeten Wilma in 2005 dan kan het nog best een flinke orkaan worden die in een dag cq 1.5 dag uit kan groeien tot major hurricane

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Tropische storm komt aan in Centaal-Amerika

AMSTERDAM – Tropische Storm Matthew is vrijdagmiddag (lokale tijd) aan land gekomen in het oosten van Nicaragua. De storm zal naar verwachting voor overstromingen en aardverschuivingen zorgen in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize en Guatemala.


Dat melden het Amerikaanse Hurricane Centre en AccuWeather.
In Honduras, Guatemala en Belize wordt zo’n tien tot twintig centimeter regen verwacht in korte tijd. Lokaal kan zelfs meer dan dertig centimeter neerslag vallen. Later zal de storm het binnenland van Guatemala intrekken.

Aardverschuivingen
Naast eventuele overstromingen kan Matthew ook zorgen voor aardverschuivingen die volgens Amerikaanse bronnen ‘levensgevaarlijk’ kunnen zijn. Er worden bovendien windsnelheden van zo’n honderd kilometer per uur verwacht.
Nicaragua heeft in verband met de tropische storm meer dan 10.000 mensen geëvacueerd. Honduras heeft preventief de staat van paraatheid uitgeroepen en heeft tevens mensen geëvacueerd uit een aantal kustplaatsjes.
Later in of zelfs na het weekend zal de storm Mexico bereiken. Dan is de kracht echter al behoorlijk afgenomen.

bron

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Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

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Op zaterdag 25 september 2010 20:14 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Het is toch maar even in de gaten houden wat het allemaal gaat doen.
Hopelijk veel live streams en weergegevens alleen dat zien we helaas niet zo vaak

Als hier een orkaan komt dan zou ik 10.000den bezoekers trekken over de hele wereld

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Op zondag 26 september 2010 00:32 schreef Co_OL het volgende:

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25 januari 1990, windkracht 11, 158 km/h, IJmuiden/Schiphol kan ik me nog wel herinneren

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Op maandag 27 september 2010 09:09 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Dat zijn dus niet de resten van Matthew?

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The area of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean that the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has been concerned about for days has become the Atlantic's 16th tropical depression.
The system has developed over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean with favorable conditions allowing an area of low pressure to become better organized.



The tropical depression has a good chance at becoming Tropical Storm Nicole over the next 48 hours.
The system is first expected to impact Cuba then to take aim at Florida and the U.S. East Coast this week.
The latest statistics on T.D. 16 can be found at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.
The system could continue to strengthen while over warm water in an environment with little wind shear during the next 24 hours.
T.D. 16 will then bring eastern and central Cuba heavy rain, tropical storm-force winds and battering surf, especially along the south-central shore, late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Four to 8 inches could soak central parts of Cuba with locally higher amounts over the mountains.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides can result from upwards of 6 inches of rain at the local level.
The higher terrain of Cuba could cause the system to lose strength before it moves back over the open water of the Straits of Florida on Wednesday.
Southern and central Florida and the Bahamas are in line for hefty rainfall, especially later Wednesday, that may also result in flash flooding.
High winds will slam the east coast of Florida, perhaps causing localized damage and coastal flooding.



The system will then move on to impact much of the East Coast during the latter part of this week with potentially flooding rainfall, high winds, rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
The strength and the exact track of the storm as it skirts the Eastern Seaboard are still far from set in stone.
The system will be battling strong wind shear by the time it reaches the East Coast of the U.S., and this could prevent it from strengthening or even maintaining tropical storm strength.



Even if the system is just a remnant low by the time it reaches the East Coast, heavy rainfall and flooding will be the major concern.
However, gusty winds and beach erosion could become serious problems as well.
A storm system lashing the East early this week will leave the East more vulnerable to flooding. Some parts of eastern North Carolina have been deluged by more than 10 inches of rain.
Residents and business interests of Florida, the Bahamas and the East Coast should keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for updates on T.D. 16 destined to become Tropical Storm Nicole.

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Op donderdag 30 september 2010 11:11 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Vraag me af of Nicole wel de status tropische storm heeft verdiend.. Ik denk dat ze een onderzoek zullen gaan starten of dat ding uberhaupt als een TS geclassificeerd kon worden

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Nicole Will Hit Like a Hurricane
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Nicole will continue to reorganize and strengthen Thursday prior to landfall in North Carolina at night.
Ignore the official classification of Nicole as a "remnant low" or even a "tropical rainstorm," as the effects will be similar to that of a hurricane from eastern North Carolina to New England.

Nicole may be changing character. However, it is getting stronger and may hit some areas from the Outer Banks to the barrier islands of New Jersey and Long Island with gusts as high as hurricane force spanning tonight and Friday.

Unfortunately, this rush to downgrade Nicole to a remnant low has lifted attention from the serious nature of the event, and may place lives and property unnecessarily in peril, since people will let their guard down as a result.

Impacts could be significant whether gusts are 40, 60 or 80 mph at various locations due to saturated ground and leafed foliage.

As Meteorologist Mark Mancuso pointed out, "The soggy ground and high winds will cause fully leafed trees to easily topple and soggy branches to fall, taking power lines with them."

As we warned about here at AccuWeather.com in recent days, conditions will be dangerous for travel in these areas tonight into Friday due to the potential number of downed trees and magnitude of flooding.

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi has been very concerned about the dangers from Nicole.

A period of strong onshore winds will also lead to coastal flooding, especially at times of high tide, perhaps as far inland as the upper part of the Delaware and Chesapeake bays.

Pounding surf for a time will lead to beach erosion.

Tropical banding of the rain and thunderstorms could also trigger short-lived, rain-wrapped tornadoes in coastal areas from North Carolina to southern New England.

When people wake up Friday morning, they may be wondering what hit them.

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East Coast Flood: The Latest Reports
by weather.com Digital Content Team
The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole could become an historic storm for the East Coast. Millions of people are in the path of the storm, and major flash flooding concerns exist for every state from the Carolinas to Maine.


The Weather Channel is keeping you up to date on the latest flooding, high wind, and severe weather reports from this East Coast storm.

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Op woensdag 13 oktober 2010 16:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Tyfoon Megi

[ afbeelding ]

Dat wordt een behoorlijke joekel
Categorie 4 inmiddels

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Megi, the latest named storm for the western North Pacific Ocean basin, has formed over the southern Philippines Sea.
As of Wednesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Megi was 310 miles west-southwest of Guam and more than 1,300 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Megi held highest sustained winds of 50 mph and was drifting towards the west at about 5 mph.
Megi will strengthen as it tracks towards the west and northwest over open seas for the next few days. Strengthening to a typhoon is forecast. Moreover, rapid strengthening to a major typhoon, even a "super" typhoon, is possible, as both oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable.

Eventually, Megi will either strike the main northern Philippines island of Luzon, or it will veer northward, away from Philippines, over the western Philippines Sea.
Direct typhoon landfall upon heavily settled northern Luzon would pose a serious threat to life and property.

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.