Hurricane Season 2010 # 2

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EARL
Earl is really starting to crank up. The pressure continues to fall as its organization improves. This is not unexpected and I hope that people in the path are ready for a rough night. As I mentioned in the post from earlier today, an intensifying hurricane packs more punch (this is our team's experience from personal observations) than one that is level or weakening. As far as pin-pointing exactly where Earl will track over the next 24 hours, it's tough to call as wobbles here and there could bring the core over a certain island or, conversely, keep it off. Why do they wobble? A lot of it has to do with a hurricane spinning like a top on a table (see the movie "Inception"?) and the axis seems to move around the common area of rotation. A hurricane's core bounces around inside the larger area of circulation and so we get the wobbles instead of a perfectly straight path. In any case, the area of the northern Caribbean Sea will experience quite a squally night with some areas actually receiving hurricane conditions.

The latest data indicates that Earl should miss Puerto Rico to the north. This is obviously good news for that island. But, we cannot be absolutely sure until the center has passed by. Heavy rains and windy conditions along with rough surf are a sure bet. The weather will improve by Tuesday.

As for a possible impact on the U.S.- the latest run of the global models from late this afternoon continue to suggest that Earl will remain just far enough off the East Coast to keep the worst weather off shore. We are talking still only a hundred miles or so and that meaning the difference in a breezy day with rain and possible hurricane force winds, tidal flooding and torrential rains. I think the key remains how strong the ridge of high pressure is between Earl and departing Danielle. If it holds firm or inflates some, like a large balloon, then it could easily push Earl more west and closer to the NC coast and then Cape Cod or Maine. Folks in Nova Scotia seem especially in the line of fire and now we're looking to see if Earl goes in to the Bay of Fundy (very bad) or skirts the coast to the southeast (much better). So still no conclusion as to what Earl will do in the end. I do expect that tonight's major global model run will yield more solid clues. I know it's tough to want to know what will happen in definitive terms, but it's not usually that easy.

FIONA
For those wondering about 97L and future Fiona, it is coming. The system is very large and is taking its own sweet time to develop. While you may think this is good news, it really isn't for the longer these enormous Cape Verde tropical waves take to develop, the farther west they usually track. This may be why the ECMWF model now shows it getting in to the Gulf of Mexico going past south Florida and over Cuba. I will address this more and more throughout the week but we need to keep a calm about ourselves and deal with Earl first. Fiona-to-be is not going to impact land for several days if at all. As is always the case, we will get more pieces to this complex puzzle with each passing model cycle. I will have another update here tomorrow morning by 10am ET (and yes, I plan to be on time with this one, sorry tonight's was later than I had planned. A lot is going on and I am trying to keep up).

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Op maandag 30 augustus 2010 09:01 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
dus footooo'sssssssssssss

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Op maandag 30 augustus 2010 13:52 schreef Stienn het volgende:

[..]

Nou maar ff een update. Het is hier nu 07:48. De kern van earl gaat het komende uur op iets van 50 km langs st. Maarten. Tot nu toe valt het heel erg mee heb ik het idee, heb de hele nacht in coma gelegen. De wind word wel steeds wat sterker.

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Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.