Atlantic Has Its First Tropical Depression of 2010 Season
The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
The tropical brew of showers, thunderstorms and tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea has given birth to the first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday.
Tropical Depression One is forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists to soon become a tropical storm, and then possibly a hurricane over the next several days. The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
The first name on the list of Atlantic tropical cyclones this season is "Alex."
The depression destined to become Alex will drift across the Yucatan, Mexico this weekend, producing heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. There is an elevated risk of flash flooding and mudslides over a broad area of Central America as a result of the system drifting slowly to the northwest.
A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.
Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.
The system will pull a great deal of tropical moisture northward on its eastern side. As a result, regardless of the exact track, squalls and building seas are likely not only over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but also over eastern areas.
While a track over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico would mean substantially less impact on the oil spill area, building seas and gusty thunderstorms from the tropical vale of moisture could cause some hazards and disruptions.
A track over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico would mean the roughest conditions, and prove to be the most disruptive over the oil spill area. A south to southeasterly flow on the eastern flank of such a storm track would drive the most oil toward the central Gulf Coast.
In either case, the earliest we would have landfall would be late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some possibility of the system's forward speed slowing, which would keep nail biting going through next week.