Hurricane Season 2010 - Things are about to change...

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Tropical Cyclone Magda is expected to intensify further as it approaches the Kimberley coast, reaching category three intensity tonight and possibly reaching category four intensity prior to impacting the coast on Friday. There is the risk of very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres per hour near the cyclone centre on Friday, by which time the cyclone should be close to the coast, between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.


Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque tonight as the cyclone approaches. Gales may extend to Derby during Friday and may reach as far south as Bidyadanga including Broome on Saturday.


Heavy rainfall, with falls in excess of 100mm, is expected near the cyclone track in the west Kimberley on Friday and Saturday.


Tides on Friday will be higher than expected between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque with flooding of low lying areas possible.

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Olga has drenched Queensland for days. Several more days of heavy rain is expected. Tropical rainstorm Olga will stall over southeastern Queensland. Nearly 20 inches of rain has already affected northern Queensland over the past week.


Across eastern and southern Queensland, 5-10 inches of rain, locally more than 15 inches, is expected. This includes Queensland's biggest city, Brisbane.


Parts of southern Queensland have suffered drought conditions as of late. So, the rain is not all bad news. Southern Queensland is a major agricultural area, where this rain will be welcome. Despite drought conditions, the rain will be heavy enough for localized flooding.


Rain from Tropical Rainstorm Olga will last through the middle of next week.

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Op woensdag 10 februari 2010 16:09 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Gaat Pat ook over Frans Polynesie? Of welk gebied ligt daar?

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Tropical Cyclone RENE-10 of Saffir-Simpson Category 2 affected 27 thousand people with winds above 39mph (63 km/h) and 19 thousand people with hurricane wind strengths (74mph or 119 km/h). In addition, few people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge

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A rare weather event is underway in the South Atlantic Ocean, where the basin's 7th recorded tropical or subtropical cyclone of all-time has formed. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90Q) off the coast of Brazil, near 30S 48W, attained a well-defined surface circulation, top wind speeds of tropical depression strength (35 mph), a warm core in the bottom portion of the atmosphere, and a cold core aloft last night. If this storm had been in the North Atlantic, there is a good chance it would have been named Subtropical Depression One. However, tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that there is no official naming of depressions or storms done. The cyclone had top winds of at least 35 mph as seen on an ASCAT pass at 7:02 am EST this morning (Figure 2), and satellite estimates of the storm's intensity topped out at 40 mph (minimum subtropical storms strength) last night. This morning, the satellite estimates are showing that the system has weakened to a 35 mph tropical depression. There is some moderate wind shear interfering with development, and sea surface temperatures are about 25°C, which is about 1°C below what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. The storm is headed eastward out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The models show the storm will lose its tropical characteristics and get absorbed by a frontal system by Saturday.

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AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released their early hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin for 2010.

The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said Bastardi. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land.

In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.

bron

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Op vrijdag 12 maart 2010 11:41 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Wordt een Cat 4

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Drie dagen lang teisterde de tropische storm 'Hubert' het eiland Madagaskar. De balans is zwaar: 14 doden en meer dan 27.000 mensen zijn dakloos. Duizenden huizen raakten beschadigd en liepen onder water.

Moeilijke hulpverlening
Volgens de nationale tv-zender is de regio rond de stad Mananjary, in het zuiden van het land, het zwaarst getroffen. Een vierde van de stad zou onder water staan, zo luidt het bij het National Office for Disaster and Risk Management (BNGRC). Ook de stroom- en watervoorziening zijn onderbroken. Doordat vele straten niet toegankelijk zijn, konden er nog geen hulpgoederen naar Mananjary gebracht worden. (dpa/eb)

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WEATHER Bureau forecasters predict Cyclone Ului will turn south today, tracking parallel with the Queensland coast.
But the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has the cyclone easing and veering towards the coast in an area between Fraser Island and Airlie Beach on Friday.

Ului was situated south of the Solomon Islands yesterday, 1400km northeast of Mackay and moving west-southwest at 7km/h. That is about half its speed of the previous day.

Forecaster Geoff Doueal said it was common for models to disagree.

"There's not much (weather conditions) steering this at the moment, so it's a wait and see," he said.

Ului drifted slowly west yesterday, but its longer-term track remained uncertain.

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2010 Atlantic hurricane season could rank in the top ten

The upcoming hurricane season could be a top ten active year, a stark contrast from the relatively calm 2009 season.

AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts a total of 16-18 storms this season. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.

The season should start early with one or two threats by early July, and stay late with additional threats extending well into October.


His forecast team expects at least six storms to impact the United States coastline--slightly more than one out of every three. In a normal year, one out of every five named storms (20 percent) in the Atlantic basin impacts the United States. In the 2005 season, 36 percent of the storms affected the United States, while 50 percent impacted the U.S. in 1998 and 2008.

"From the standpoint of number of storm threats from the tropics to the U.S. coastline, we will at least rival 2008, and in the extreme case, this season could end up in a category only exceeded by 2005," Bastardi said.

Bastardi observes a rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and the collapsing El Nino pattern, which were both characteristics of the 1998 and 2005 seasons.

Named storms moving through the Gulf of Mexico can cause major disruption to both oil and gas production. In 2008, shutdown of production caused a decline in production of 62 million barrels of oil and 408 billion cubic feet of gas. In the record-setting season of 2005, nearly three months of production time was lost.

According to Bastardi, the Atlantic basin looks "textbook" for a major season, with many long track storms that make their way from off the coast of Africa into the western Atlantic and Caribbean heading toward the U.S. coastline.


He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "congregation of tracks," or a concentrated area where many of the storm tracks will pass through.

"I believe there will be a bunching of tracks in the area around the Antilles and into the Bahamas," he said.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

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Tropical cyclone could hit India and Bangladesh
Meteorologists are warning a tropical cyclone could hit the east coast of India and Bangladesh putting thousands of homes and scores of lives at risk.

Officials have issued a cyclone alert at ports in the eastern state of Orissa and begun preparations for mass evacuations amid fears of flooding.

Authorities in Bangladesh have also warned fishing boats to stay close to shore and not to venture into deep water.

Early monsoon rains increase the prospect of better rice, corn and soybean crops but cyclones are a regular hazard through the summer months.

India is battered regularly during the stormy season in the Bay of Bengal between April and November.

Last year, 169 people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Aila. Millions more living in India and Bangladesh had their lives disrupted.

And last month, a nor'wester – large storm systems that develop in the Bay of Bengal during the summer – struck the states of Bihar and West Bengal, killing 137 people and leaving thousands of people homeless.

The latest cyclone, named Laila, is gusting at up to 40mph but is still some 400 miles east of Chennai.

Forecasts suggest it could reach speeds of 120mph and – if it continues on course – hit land on Thursday in Andhra Pradesh, home to steel plants and oil refineries and ports.

"The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a north-westerly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast," said a statement issued by the The India Meteorological Department.

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India evacuates 40,000 as cyclone approaches southern state


NEW DELHI, May 20 (Xinhua) -- Indian authorities have evacuated over 40,000 people from coastal areas of southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh in the anticipation of cyclone Laila which is expected to land in the state, said officials Thursday.

However, cyclonic storm Laila is showing signs of weakening before hitting the seashore, said Indian meteorological officials.

Heavy rains with gales has killed 10 people and crippled life in the coastal region of the state, as the cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh by Thursday afternoon.

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Cyclone Laila moves towards Orissa, rains in Andhra

Cyclone Laila weakened ahead of landfall about 30 km from Bapatla in Guntur district in Andhra Pradesh on Thursday but still left 16 people dead, flooded thousands of homes, snapped power supply in many areas and threw rail and road traffic out of gear in the coastal region of the state.

Though Laila's intensity reduced considerably, the winds blowing at a speed of 90-95 kmph continue to leave behind a trail of destruction, though not of the level that was feared before it made the landfall.

It rained all night in most parts of Bapatla in Guntur and even now it is raining, accompanied by strong winds.

While the depression is moving towards Orissa now, the Meteorological department has said that vigil should continue in coastal Andhra Pradesh today as well.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall activity is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and Orissa during next 24 hours. (After striking Andhra, Cyclone Laila heads towards Orissa)


The sea condition will be very rough along and off Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen have been are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours.

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Tropical Cyclone Laila hovered over the eastern coastline of India and the Bay of Bengal, and skirted Sri Lanka on May 19, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. Spanning hundreds of kilometers, the storm extends a spiral arm toward the northeast, covering much of India’s coast. In the south, the storm spans most of southern India.
On May 19, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Laila had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). Roughly 80 nautical miles (150 kilometers) northeast of the coastal city of Chennai (Madras), the storm had moved toward the north-northwest over the previous several hours.
As Laila traveled along the Indian coastline, both the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory reported severe flooding, including some casualties, in India and Sri Lanka. Some of the flooding, however, occurred before Laila developed into a named storm, and was associated with other weather fronts.

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Doden na overstromingen Sri Lanka
Bij overstromingen en aardverschuivingen als gevolg van zware regenval zijn in Sri Lanka zeker twintig mensen om het leven gekomen. Dat heeft de Sri Lankaanse regering vrijdag gezegd. De meeste doden vielen in het westelijke district Gampaha.

Volgens de regering zijn veel huizen ondergelopen en zijn wegen weggespoeld. De marine probeert mensen die vast zitten te redden en helpt bij de verspreiding van hulpgoederen.

Trouw

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Dodental cycloon India gestegen
(Novum/AP) - Het dodental als gevolg van een krachtige cycloon die het zuidoosten van India heeft getroffen is gestegen naar 23. Donderdagnacht kwamen vier mensen om het leven bij een aardverschuiving in de stad Vijawyada.

Slagregens geselden woensdag het kustgebied van de deelstaat Andhra Pradesh en winden van honderd kilometer per uur rukten bomen en elektriciteitsmasten uit de grond. De storm zorgde voor aardverschuivingen in het kuststadje Bapatla. Golven van meer dan drie meter hoog troffen de Indiase kust.

Op voorhand werden meer dan vijftigduizend mensen geëvacueerd uit vrees voor mogelijk de ergste storm in veertien jaar. Toch verloren sinds woensdag 23 mensen het leven. Zeker 55 vissers worden vermist. Zes districten hadden te kampen met stroomuitval en honderden dorpen werden tien uur lang in duisternis gehuld.

In het noorden van India kwamen tien mensen om het leven bij een krachtig onweer. Zes mensen overleden toen hun huis vlakbij het dorp Allahabad in de deelstaat Uttar Pradesh instortte.

Trouw

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An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.

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Op zaterdag 22 mei 2010 13:57 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Da's extreem vroeg Op de site van National Hurricane Center staat nog niets overigens.

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Op maandag 24 mei 2010 18:27 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Ze mogen wel gaan opschieten met het opruimen van de olie in de Mexicaanse golf.

Ik wil niet weten wat er gebeurt als er een Hurricane CAT 4 over heen gaat

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Op woensdag 26 mei 2010 20:09 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Dat gebied kon wel eens Mexico oversteken en zo de Golf in waaien

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Eerste tropische storm eist levens

In Guatemala zijn zeker twaalf mensen om het leven gekomen door modderstromen en aardverschuivingen. Die ontstonden door de tropische storm Agatha, de eerste van het orkaanseizoen.


Onder de doden zijn vier kinderen. De meeste slachtoffers werden bedolven onder de modder. Zeker elf mensen worden nog vermist. President Colom heeft de noodtoestand uitgeroepen.

Die was al van kracht in sommige delen van Guatemala door de uitbarsting van de vulkaan Pacaya. De as die de vulkaan spuwt blokkeert de riolering waardoor het regenwater niet wordt weggespoeld.


rtl

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Op zondag 30 mei 2010 08:22 schreef Light het volgende:

[..]

Nee hoor, Ioke begon ten zuiden van Hawaii.

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Op zondag 30 mei 2010 09:11 schreef Light het volgende:

[..]

Nee, want hij begon halverwege.

Als je van Utrecht naar Schevingen gaat, doorkruis je ook niet het hele land. Als je van Enschede naar Scheveningen gaat, dan wel.

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Agatha's Potential Eventual Impacts on the U.S.

The demise of once-Tropical Storm Agatha will not come over Central America. Agatha may eventually impact Florida at midweek. In addition, the possibility of the system re-strengthening cannot be totally ruled out.

Agatha is now a tropical rainstorm dropping extremely heavy rainfall across Guatemala, El Salvador and western Honduras. More lives will continue to be threatened as dangerous flooding and mudslides ensue.


The mountainous terrain of Central America severely heightens the concern of mudslides as the torrential rain pours down.

The mountains are also what caused Agatha to lose its tropical storm status Saturday evening, 12 hours after the storm acquired its name.

Most storms typically totally dissipate once slamming into the mountains of Central America. The center of Agatha, however, is expected to survive the trip and should continue pushing northeastward over the next few days.

Tropical Rainstorm Agatha should travel over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, then reach the Florida Peninsula at midweek.

Questions of potential re-strengthening have to be addressed since the forecast path takes Agatha over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Fortunately, winds high in the atmosphere (referred to as wind shear) over the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be too strong for any tropical system to develop. That is also good news, at this time, for those concerned of a hurricane hitting the oil slick area.

Despite not being expected to regain tropical storm status, Agatha will still adversely impact the Florida Peninsula at midweek. Downpours accompanying the system could trigger flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

Motorists should use caution since reduced visibility will result from not only the downpours, but also spray from other vehicles. Water ponding on highways will heighten the danger of vehicles hydroplaning.

The possibility of Agatha re-strengthening into at least a tropical depression will increase if the system takes a more eastward track towards Florida. Agatha would then pass over the northwestern Caribbean, where the wind shear is less.

Even in this scenario, the stronger wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico would quickly weaken Agatha before reaching Florida.


If Agatha were to strengthen back into a tropical storm, it would acquire a name from the Atlantic Basin list. That would also bring the Atlantic Basin its first tropical storm of the year, which is to be named "Alex."

A tropical system only keeps its name as it travels from the Eastern Pacific to the Atlantic, or vice versa, if it does not dissipate into a tropical rainstorm over Central America.

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Tropische storm Agatha eist levens GUATEMALA-STAD/SAN SALVADOR - De eerste tropische storm van het seizoen in Centraal-Amerika heeft aan zeker achttien mensen het levens gekost: twaalf in Guatemala en zes in San Salvador. In Guatemala worden nog zestien mensen vermist, in El Salvador twee. Dat hebben officiële bronnen uit beide landen bekendgemaakt.

telegraaf

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Tropische storm Agatha eist tientallen levens

De eerste tropische storm van het seizoen in Centraal-Amerika heeft aan zeker 82 mensen het leven gekost: minstens 73 in Guatemala en in ieder geval negen in El Salvador. Het dodental kan nog verder oplopen. Dat hebben officiële bronnen van beide landen bekendgemaakt.

De meeste slachtoffers vielen door overstromingen en aardverschuivingen die door zware regenval waren veroorzaakt. Tienduizenden mensen raakten dakloos door het noodweer. In zowel Guatemala als El Salvador is de noodtoestand uitgeroepen.

Agatha zwakte zondag af van een tropische storm tot een tropische depressie. Agatha ontwikkelde zich boven de Grote Oceaan en kwam aan land in Guatemala, niet ver van de grens met Mexico. Delen van Mexico en Honduras kregen ook te maken met overvloedige regenval en felle winden.

trouw

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Tropische storm Agatha eist tientallen levens

GUATEMALA-STAD/SAN SALVADOR - Het dodental als gevolg van Agatha, de eerste tropische storm van dit seizoen in Midden-Amerika, is zondag opgelopen tot 99. In Guatemala vielen 82 doden, in El Salvador negen en in Honduras acht. In Guatemala worden zeker 53 mensen vermist.

De storm gaat gepaard met zware regenval. In een gebied dat zich uitstrekt van het zuiden van Mexico tot Nicaragua blijft het waterpeil in de rivieren stijgen. Door de enorme regenval hebben op meerdere plaatsen aardverschuivingen en overstromingen plaatsgevonden.

Zondagavond hebben in Guatemala 112 duizend personen hun huizen verlaten. Een groot deel van hen heeft zijn heil gezocht in schuilplaatsen. In Honduras werden 2250 mensen geëvacueerd, nadat meer dan vijfhonderd huizen werden verwoest door een modderstroom.

De president van El Salvador, Mauricio Funes, waarschuwde dat het gevaar nog niet voorbij is. "Ook al lijkt de storm in kracht af te nemen, de situatie in het hele land blijft kritiek", zo zei hij.

In Guatemala, Honduras en El Salvador is de noodtoestand uitgeroepen. (NOVUM)

AD

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Op maandag 31 mei 2010 10:48 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Ik had afgelopen vrijdag nog contact met mijn distributeur in Guatemala City over de vulkaan, hij schreef het volgende:

Espero te encuentres bien, muchas gracias por tu comunicación te comento que aun no he recibido los brochures y las memorias USB pero estoy pendiente de recibirlas...Con respecto a al volcan te comento que toda la ciudad esta cubierta de arena del volvan, desde ayer han habido temblores por las erupciones y ayer por la noche empezaron a caer piedras y arena imaginate....pero gracias a Dios todos estamos bien aunque las calles estan solitariar por cierres en comercios y escuelas....


Wat dus wil zeggen dat de hele stad onder een zandlaag ligt en dat er ook aardbevingen voelbaar waren vanwege de vulkaanuitbarsting. En dat er stenen de lucht in werden geslingerd afkomstig uit de vulkaan. De scholen en winkels waren toen al gesloten. Dat was nog allemaal voordat de storm toesloeg, dus ik ga vanmiddag weer even contact met hem proberen te krijgen. Gaat lekker daar

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Steeds meer doden na tropische storm Agatha

GUATEMALA-STAD (ANP) - De tropische storm Agatha die delen van Centraal-Amerika trof, blijkt zeker 150 slachtoffers te hebben veroorzaakt. Dat bleek dinsdagochtend uit de jongste cijfers van de autoriteiten.

Vooral Guatemala kreeg het zwaar te verduren door de eerste tropische storm van het seizoen in het gebied. Maar ook in Honduras en El Salvador werd de noodtoestand uitgeroepen wegens de overstromingen en aardverschuivingen als gevolg van zware regenval. Reddingswerkers graven veelal zonder hulp van grote machines in meters modder naar vermisten.

President Alvaro Colom van Guatemala zei dat in zijn land ruim 150.000 mensen uit hun huizen moesten vluchten. De verwoestingen zouden groter zijn dan na de wervelstormen Mitch (1998) en Stan (2005), toen respectievelijk 268 en 669 mensen om het leven kwamen.

Agatha ontwikkelde zich boven de Grote Oceaan en kwam zaterdag aan land in Guatemala, niet ver van de grens met Mexico.

bron

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Op dinsdag 1 juni 2010 18:07 schreef woid het volgende:

[..]

zegt ze?

[ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 1 juni 2010 18:48 schreef woid het volgende:

[..]

dan zou Agatha Alex gaan heten...

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Agatha deaths rise to 180 in Central America
By JUAN CARLOS LLORCA (AP) – 5 hours ago

GUATEMALA CITY — Villagers used hoes and pick axes on Tuesday to hunt for victims of landslides that have killed at least 180 people in Central America while officials in Guatemala's capital tried to cope with a vast sinkhole that swallowed a clothing factory.

Thousands remained homeless and dozens still missing following the season's first tropical storm. Rescue crews struggled to reach isolated communities to distribute food and water.

"This is a total tragedy," said Jose Vicente Samayoa, president of a neighborhood group in Amatitlan, a flooded town south of Guatemala's capital.

Officials in Guatemala reported 152 dead but said 100 people were still missing. In the department of Chimaltenango — a province west of Guatemala City — landslides buried rural Indian communities and killed at least 60 people.

Curious onlookers also gathered at a massive and almost perfectly circular sinkhole that swallowed an entire intersection in Guatemala City over the weekend, gulping down a clothing factory but causing no deaths or injuries.

Authorities estimate the hole is 66 feet (20 meters) wide and nearly 100 feet (30 meters) deep, but they are still investigating what caused it.

Nearly 125,000 people were evacuated in Guatemala and thousands more fled their homes in neighboring Honduras, where officials raised the death toll rose to 18 late Tuesday.

Most schools also resumed classes on Tuesday in Honduras.

In El Salvador, 11,000 people were evacuated. The death toll rose to 10 and two others were missing, President Mauricio Funes said Monday night.

About 95 percent of the country's roads were affected by landslides, but most remained open, Transportation Minister Gerson Martinez said. He said 179 bridges had been wrecked.

Agatha made landfall near the Guatemala-Mexico border on Saturday with tropical storm winds of up to 45 mph (75 kph). It dissipated the following day over the mountains of western Guatemala.

The rising death toll is reminding nervous residents of Hurricane Mitch, which hovered over Central America for days in 1998, causing flooding and mudslides that killed nearly 11,000 people and left more than 8,000 missing and unaccounted for.

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Op dinsdag 8 juni 2010 17:59 schreef kahaarin het volgende:
Olielek Golf van Mexico bijna onder controle

Hopelijk lukt het nu dan, iig 1 zorg minder.

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In the midst of cleaning up after Tropical Cyclone Phet, Oman and Pakistan could be in the line of fire as another tropical system begins to develop.

According to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, models continue to suggest a tropical cyclone will develop in the Arabian Sea this weekend.

Heavy rain will continue across southwestern India over the next few days. Rainfall of 2-4 inches can be expected through the end of the day on Friday.

Meteorologists foresee this system moving off the shore over the open water of the Arabian Sea on Saturday.

This most recent tropical development could be the fourth named system of the tropical season in the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman, northwest India and southern Pakistan last week, causing several deaths and many injuries and resulted in thousands becoming displaced after flooding and mudslides.


The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provided rainfall estimates of Tropical Cyclone Phet from its Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) between May 31 and June 6.

TRMM reported rainfall totals of 23.6 inches as Phet traveled over the Arabian Sea. The highest reported totals out of northeastern Oman reached 17.7 inches and between 5.9 and 11.8 inches in Pakistan as Phet made landfall.

Tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific are the equivalent to the naming of tropical systems as hurricanes in the Atlantic, and typhoons in the Western Pacific.

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Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.) While 92L will cross over a 1°C cooler patch of water on Monday, the storm will encounter very warm SSTs of 28-29°C again by Tuesday.

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Op zondag 13 juni 2010 13:05 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Ziet er goed ik denk eerst storm van het jaar

En kan btw meteen een sterke worden

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The forecast for 92L
A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance is currently located at 7°N, well south of this band of high shear, and is only experiencing 5 - 15 knots of shear. This moderate amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next few days as it tracks west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Based on visible satellite imagery over the past few hours, I believe this forecast is not aggressive enough, and that 92L has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Another factor holding 92L back is its proximity to the Equator. I would give 92L higher chances of developing if it were not so close to the Equator. The system is organizing at about 7°N latitude, which is so close to the Equator that it cannot leverage the Earth's spin much to help it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L should begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 30 knots by Thursday, which should be able to greatly weaken or entirely destroy the storm before it gets to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands by Saturday or Sunday next weekend. The GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that 92L will develop into a moderate strength tropical storm that will then be weakened or destroyed by the end of the week, before it reaches the islands. This looks like a reasonable forecast.

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Op zondag 13 juni 2010 22:04 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
volgens andere sites 30 tot 40% kans... en idd watertemperatuur zegt niet alles... kan zijn dat Alex toch nog even op zich laat wachten

quote:

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

quote:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

quote:

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

quote:

The 2010 hurricane season is set to become even more extreme, with 18-21 named storms now in the forecast, and some of those storms will impact the oil spill in the Gulf.




AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has upped his original forecast from 16-18 storms, to 18-21, with at least eight impacts and six hurricanes, and two or three of those hurricanes will have major landfalls. Only five years in the 160 years of records had 18 or more storms in a season.

"The hurricane season should have several hits on the U.S. coast from July through September, mainly in the Southeast and Gulf," said Bastardi.

Bastardi suggests that based on years with a similarly active hurricane forecast as 2010, at least two hurricanes and one tropical storm are set to move through the area of the Gulf oil spill by the end of the tropical season.



As many as three other tropical systems have the potential to track close enough to the spill to impact cleanup and capping operations, as well as other oil rig operations in the Gulf.

"Above-normal tropical activity should feature four named storms in July, with one or two impacting the coastal areas," said Bastardi.

August will also feature an influx of storms.

"August should have six named storms, with two of three impacts on the U.S. coastline," said Bastardi.

Bastardi predicts the heart of this season's storms will occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15.

"Not only will that period be more active than normal, but the run up to it, and the time after it," said Bastardi. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15-20 day period."



He is confident that tropical activity will occur before mid-August in the Gulf of Mexico, the estimated time frame at which BP expects the oil leak to be capped.

Back in February, Bastardi based his predictions for the 2010 season on the tropical activity of analog years 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008.

Most of the past analog years Bastardi considered in his 2010 forecast for the Gulf had tropical activity before the middle of August.

Even later into the summer, hurricane season will continue to ramp up.


"By late August and September, the hurricane season should be front and center," said Bastardi. "Expect eight named storms in September and three or four U.S. impacts."

An extreme winter and now an above-normal hurricane season could place 2010 in the record books.

"It's hard to fathom another 12-month period where such wild swings would make weather so significant for such a large area of the population," said Bastardi.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

quote:

Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 14:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Voorlopige uitdraai voor 28e... waar ligt die daar voor de kust? New Orleans?

quote:

Op woensdag 23 juni 2010 21:44 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:

[..]

Nature stricks back!!
Laten we hopen dat de mensheid hier iets van leert.

quote:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

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Op donderdag 24 juni 2010 10:59 schreef Revolution-NL het volgende:

[..]

De olie komt dan gewoon letterlijk uit de lucht vallen

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The first signs of development could happen any time from later today through Saturday, perhaps followed by rapid strengthening early next week.

A track of a hurricane toward the central or southeastern Louisiana coast would be the worst case scenario given the current situation. Counterclockwise flow around the storm would bring significant amounts of water (and oil and tar balls) onshore as a surge. Winds in the northeastern quadrant of a hurricane moving northward are typically the strongest and would also be a concern.

Speculation will continue as to what would happen if a hurricane tracks over an oil slick the size of the spill in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, it appears likely that we will all get an education this season, sooner or later.

http://www.accuweather.co(...)-storm-hurrica-1.asp

quote:

Atlantic Has Its First Tropical Depression of 2010 Season

The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
The tropical brew of showers, thunderstorms and tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea has given birth to the first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Friday.

Tropical Depression One is forecast by AccuWeather.com meteorologists to soon become a tropical storm, and then possibly a hurricane over the next several days. The depression is currently located 355 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The first name on the list of Atlantic tropical cyclones this season is "Alex."



The depression destined to become Alex will drift across the Yucatan, Mexico this weekend, producing heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. There is an elevated risk of flash flooding and mudslides over a broad area of Central America as a result of the system drifting slowly to the northwest.

A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.



Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.

The system will pull a great deal of tropical moisture northward on its eastern side. As a result, regardless of the exact track, squalls and building seas are likely not only over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but also over eastern areas.

While a track over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico would mean substantially less impact on the oil spill area, building seas and gusty thunderstorms from the tropical vale of moisture could cause some hazards and disruptions.

A track over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico would mean the roughest conditions, and prove to be the most disruptive over the oil spill area. A south to southeasterly flow on the eastern flank of such a storm track would drive the most oil toward the central Gulf Coast.

In either case, the earliest we would have landfall would be late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some possibility of the system's forward speed slowing, which would keep nail biting going through next week.

quote:

Olie-industrie vreest storm Alex


De olieindustrie in de Golf van Mexico maakt zich zorgen over tropische storm Alex. Oliemaatschappij Shell is bezig om personeel te evacueren van booreilanden in de buurt. Ook BP volgt storm Alex nauwkeurig.

Alex is de eerst tropische storm van het seizoen.

Vooralsnog lijkt er geen gevaar voor de schepen die aan het werk zijn rond het olielek bij het gezonken platform Deepwater Horizon, maar het Amerikaanse orkaancentrum waarschuwt dat de storm onvoorspelbaar is.

Op dit moment nadert de storm het Mexicaanse schiereiland Yucatan. Enkele honderden toeristen zijn op de vlucht geslagen voor de storm.

http://nos.nl/artikel/167785-olieindustrie-vreest-storm-alex.html