Olietopic #10 - Prijs per vat rond de 75 dollar

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Oil, gas prices continue to skyrocket
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The predictions for just how high oil can reach this year, just like 2008, continue to creep upward just five months removed from crude priced around $32 per barrel.

Benchmark crude for July delivery rose $1.23 to settle at $66.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude prices have spiked 30 percent this month, enough to give anyone vertigo. But the pain is relative.

At this time last year, crude prices were brushing up against $130.

While crude has risen fast through May, we're still around $66.

For gas prices to hit $3, crude would need to go to about $100 a barrel, well above even the highest projections this year of $70 to $75, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information service.
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EIA: World Energy Use Projected to Grow 44 Percent Between 2006 and 2030
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. However, with economic recovery anticipated to begin within the next 12 to 24 months, most nations are expected to see energy consumption growth at rates anticipated prior to the recession. Total world energy use rises from 472 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2006 to 552 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030. Total liquid fuels and other petroleum consumption in 2030 is projected to be 22 million barrels per day higher than the 2006 level of 85 million barrels per day. In the reference case, conventional oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) contribute 8.2 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquid fuels production, and conventional supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 3.4 million barrels per day.

In addition, unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both non-OPEC and OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case. World production of unconventional resources, which totaled 3.1 million barrels per day in 2006, increases to 13.4 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case, accounting for 13 percent of total world liquids supply in 2030.

Recent experience demonstrates that world oil prices can be extremely volatile and, as a result, the IEO2009 includes three world oil price cases that span a very broad range in 2030, from $50 (in 2007 dollars) per barrel in the low price case to $200 per barrel in the high price case. These price paths translate to a fairly broad range of potential supply outlooks in 2030, ranging from 90 million barrels per day in the high price case to 120 million barrels per day in the low price case (compared to 107 million barrels per day in the reference case)

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 10:49 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Dat is bijna een verdubbeling in een paar maanden! Dus 'skyrocket' is niets teveel gezegd.

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 11:12 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Ik denk dat een vat olie in 2030 juist veel minder is dan 130. Simpelweg omdat zonnecellen tegen die tijd zeer efficient en goedkoop zijn.

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 11:15 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Mhoaw, de olievoorraden nemen atm scherp af. Vandaar dat olie behoorlijk gestegen is. En als olievoorraden nu al afnemen, hoe moet dat wel niet zijn als de economie weer wat aantrekt?

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Op zondag 31 mei 2009 13:11 schreef SeLang het volgende:

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Iedereen zou daarmee moeten ophouden (prijzen 20 jaar vooruit voorspellen). Want kijk eens naar de fout van historische voorspellingen slechts een paar maanden vooruit...
Op een prijs van $100 voorspelden sommigen $120 of $140, anderen misschien $80. De realiteit: Zes maanden later stonden we op $35. Wat voor zin heeft het dan om een prijs te voorspellen voor 2030

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"Die nächste Ölkrise kommt"
Engelse vertaling

A shortage of oil could trigger another global recession around 2013 – says the IEA. By 2010 the price will reach new highs.

The IEA in Paris is warning of a new, much more severe global economic crisis around 2013. The reason is that investments in oil from new projects are being cancelled by large oil companies. If demand starts increasing in 2010, the oil price could explode, fire up inflation and put global growth at risk.

"We are concerned, that oil companies are reducing their investment levels. When demand returns a supply shortage could appear. We are even predicting that this shortage could occur in 2013." Said Nobuo Tanaka, head of the IEA in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
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The investment levels are already down 25% from a year ago. The OPEC countries are reducing production, because they do not see sufficient demand. Of 130 large oil projects, 35 have been frozen by February, said OPEC general secretary Abdullah al-Badri.

The investments however, are necessary to meet demand when it starts picking up again. This is not a matter of oil running out, but IEA studies prove that the oil produced from 580 of the largest 800 fields is declining.
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Unfortunately, he has found that because of the global economic crisis, investments in renewable energy and nuclear power are declining. If additional measures are not undertaken however against global warming, and the CO2 emissions continue their step upward trajectory, this will lead to warming of six degrees centigrade by the end of the century. "This would be a disaster", said Tanaka. Then the northern German city of Hanover would be a warm as Marrakech today.
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Oil demand to post sharpest fall since 1981 -IEA

LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - World oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 as the economy struggles to bounce back, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the IEA, which advises 28 industrialised countries, said in a monthly report. It previously forecast demand would fall by 2.4 million bpd this year.
Oil market fundamentals remained weak and a rise in oil prices, which hit $60 a barrel for the first time in six months on Tuesday, was due to sentiment rather than evidence of higher consumption, the agency said.
"The oil price seems to have moved a bit higher in the past month largely on the basis of equity markets and sentiment about potential economic recovery," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.
"But we're not seeing it in terms of the preliminary demand data for early 2009."
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Non-OPEC oil production is about to decline

The group of countries outside the OPEC cartel currently still produces 60% of
world oil production. But this situation will not last much longer as non-OPEC
production is to fall off its plateau in 2010. A plateau that began at the end of
2003 between a production level of 49 to 51 million barrels per day. Caused
by declining production in most of the producing countries in non-OPEC
including Norway, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, Mexico, the
United States and Indonesia. Their decline has until now been compensated
by increasing production mainly in Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, China,
Brazil and Canada. But Russian production has been on a plateau since end
2007 and is expected to begin declining soon.

Of even more importance is the overall decline in investments due to the
economic crisis. There was a surge in investment in peaked non-OPEC
countries as the oil price rose since 2006 which turned around into a large
suspension of projects and an even bigger postponement. Ranging from
projects such as an extension to the Forties field in the UK that would start
producing in 2009 adding 25.000 b/d of capacity but has now been cancelled,
to the production of 300.000 b/d from the offshore field of Jidong Kanpu in
China, which has been postponed from early 2010 to the end of 2011. The
extent of cancellation and postponement of project has been presented to
the G8 by the International Energy Agency last May, and sums up to several
million barrels in non-OPEC countries that will not come onto the market in
the 2009-2011 period. This end to the investment boom is going to lead to
deeper declines in already peaked countries, and hence declining production
in overall non-OPEC. More light on the extent of the decline in non-OPEC is
going to come forth from the medium term oil market outlook from the IEA
to be published on 29 June. A report which could prove to be a shocker to
many. As its conclusion will undoubtedly be that OPEC countries will be the
main producers left to prevent an oil crisis from happening in the next five
years. The spare capacity that OPEC currently has, is far from sufficient to
provide the world with the oil it needs for sustained economic growth on
the midterm.

The consequence of this market change will be large as OPEC gains increasing
control and considerable influence on the world’s economy, because it will
be the main block left that can increase oil exports in a couple of years. It
could very well mean beginning of the end of the free oil market, as large
consuming countries such as the USA and China increasingly seek to gain
influence over OPEC her oil flows. Be it through political or military channels.
Hopefully, the countries of the OPEC cartel will be able to significantly
increase their production in the next five to ten years, giving the world some
breathing room to build large scale alternatives to oil. But this remains a dim
prospect given the difficulties that the cartel is already facing with expanding
production due to mainly political problems.

Rembrandt Koppelaar

President ASPO Netherlands

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Op maandag 15 juni 2009 13:08 schreef Q. het volgende:
Samenvatting: we hebben de piek gehad en flikkeren zometeen keihard de duisternis in...

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http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/high.pdf
Forecast global oil demand is adjusted up 120 kb/d for 2009
following stronger‐than‐expected 1Q09 OECD data. Global oil
demand is projected at 83.3 mb/d, ‐2.9% or ‐2.5 mb/d compared
with 2008. These revisions do not necessarily imply economic
recovery, but may reflect a slowing in previously sharp decline.

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First Iraq Oil Bidding Round to Be Held June 29

Iraq will hold its first bidding round for prized oil and gas fields as shceduled on June 29, a government spokesman said Wednesday.
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Some 32 international companies, including oil majors such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), BP PLC (BP) and Total SA (TOT), are expected to take part in the bidding process, planned to be held in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry had pre-qualified 35 international companies for the first bidding round which was announced a year ago.

The ministry is planning to award 20-year long service contracts, which mean that winning companies would receive remuneration in kind for each barrel produced as well as costs. Oil majors prefer deals that give them a share of profits and allow them to book reserves.

The oil fields in questions are Kirkuk and Bai Hassan in northern Iraq, West Qurna-1, North and South Rumaila, Zubair and Missan in southern Iraq. The two non-producing gas fields are Akkas in western Iraq and Mansouriya in the center.
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andere bron (Rigzone)

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Oil futures rally after attack on oil platform in Nigeria

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures ended above $71 a barrel on Monday, rallying after an attack on an oil platform in Nigeria rekindled supply worries.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose $2.33, or 3.3%, to end at $71.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Earlier, the contract soared to an intraday high of $72.40 a barrel.
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Oil futures rise above $73 a barrel in Asia

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BP wins bid to develop Iraq's biggest oilfield

Iraq’s Oil Ministry announced a consortium led by the UK’s BP has accepted a contract to develop the country’s biggest oilfield – the 17-billion barrel Rumaila field in the south.

The consortium, which includes China's CNPC, accepted the deal after Exxon Mobil rejected the government’s $2 a barrel limit.

Most of the world’s major oil companies are taking part in an auction for six Iraqi oil fields and two gas fields on Tuesday. The contracts on offer are worth a total of $16bn.
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Full list of Iraq oil contract bidders

BHP Billiton, Eni, LUKoil, Occidental Petroleum, Sinochem, BP, ExxonMobil, Maersk Oil, ONGC, Sinopec, Chevron, Hess Corp., Marathon, PT Pertamina, StatoilHydro, CNOOC, INPEX Corp., Mitsubishi, Petronas, Total, CNPC, JAPEX, Nexen, Repsol-YPF, Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO), ConocoPhillips, Gazprom Neft, Nippon Oil, Shell, Woodside Petroleum, Edison, Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS)

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Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble as foreign firms only bid for 1 of 3 fields

BAGHDAD (AP) -- Iraq opened up some of its massive oil and gas fields to foreign firms on Tuesday but only one deal was struck by midmorning in a troubling sign for the country's hopes of reconstruction.
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China raises gasoline, diesel prices

BEIJING, June 29 (Xinhua) -- China raised gasoline and diesel prices by 600 yuan (about 87.8 U.S. dollars) per tonne, starting zero o'clock Tuesday.

The increase raised the price for gasoline by about 0.45 yuan per liter, or 8.6 percent, and the price of diesel by about 0.51 yuan per liter, or 9.6 percent, said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in a statement on its Web site.

It was the third oil price adjustment this year. On May 31, the NDRC raised the pump prices of gasoline and diesel by 400 yuan per tonne, or 7 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The adjustment was in response to "recent international oil price fluctuation" under the country's new fuel pricing mechanism, as international crude prices kept rising, said the statement.

According to the new mechanism, China's domestic prices are to be "indirectly linked" to global crude prices "in a controlled manner."
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Op maandag 6 juli 2009 16:42 schreef RemcoDelft het volgende:
Als het "ongeauthoriseerd" is, waarom heeft zo'n medewerker daar dan de mogelijkheid toe?!