Hurricane Season 2009

quote:

Tropical wave (92L) with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is located a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico, and is tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some increased organization of the storm, with upper-level outflow on the north side and a hint of a surface circulation trying to form near 22N 62W. However, the disturbance is moving underneath an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this upper-level low is generating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. The upper low is also dumping cold, dry air into 92L, and this is retarding development of the storm. Dry air is getting ingested into 92L's thunderstorms and creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface (Figure 1). Nevertheless, 92L appears determined to become a tropical depression over the next day or two, and NHC is giving 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning

quote:

92L CLOSE TO BECOMING A DEPRESSION AND MOST LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM

The first good visible satellite photos of 92L show that it has developed a low level circulation but lacks deep thunderstorms all the way around that center. Strong winds are blowing the convection off to the west but this is likely to let up just enough to allow this to become our next named storm: Danny. The Hurricane Hunters are out there now investigating and we may have a new storm to track within the next couple of hours. The forecast from the various computer models is interesting to say the least. It is possible that this system will have a direct impact on the North Carolina coast and then farther north this weekend. The UKMET, ECMWF and Canadian CMC all show this coming far enough west to either clip Cape Hatteras or maybe go just west of there as it heads northward. People from the NC coast all the way to New England need to be watching this closely- a weekend tropical storm threat in late August is nothing to take lightly. In fact, some of the intensity guidance strongly suggests that this could make it to hurricane strength WHILE MOVING NORTH past the NC Outer Banks. Water temps are very warm all the way up to just off the coast of New York- so it would not suprise me at all to see this become a serious threat to the East Coast. How much so remains tough to call right now.

quote:

Op donderdag 27 augustus 2009 01:03 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Volgend jaar ligt El Nino toch in Atlantic?
Dat wordt nog leuk dan.

quote:

I THINK IT IS PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER FOR DANNY- GREAT NEWS FOR THE EAST COAST

A quick update here after looking over some of the very latest data on Danny. I think the NHC is right on track with forecasting what will amount to be a very weak tropical storm moving roughly parallel to the East Coast of the U.S. It will probably induce some pretty good rains as all of the energy from the tropics and the upper level support coming in from the Midwest all combine/interact this weekend. There will be some waves and the threat of rip currents once again so please be careful out there. Otherwise, Danny will most likely go down as a major underachiever- which ends up spelling great news for residents and visitors to the East Coast. It could transition in to quite the summertime Nor'easter and folks in Nova Scotia should be ready for some foul weather this weekend. Our attention will quickly turn to 94L which has all the makings of becoming our next named storm- but it poses absolutely no threat to land areas anytime soon.