Hurricane Season 2009

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TROPICAL STORM "ERIC"

Tropical storm "Eric" descended on the regions of Sofia, Sava, Atsinanana, and Analanjirofo in the north-east of Madagascar at 8 am on 19 January 2009, carrying heavy rain and winds at the speed of up to 95 km/h. Landing in the district of Fenerive-Est, "Eric" edged southwards through the districts of Fenoarivo Atsinanana, Sainte-Marie, Vavatenina, Ambositra, Toamasina I, Antsohihy, Mampikony, and Mandritsara,veering off into the Indian Ocean by 2 pm.

According to the preliminary reports received from regional authorities through BNGRC, approximately 1,000 persons remain homeless with another 1,700 persons impacted to varying degrees by the tropical system. BNGRC reports one person dead and 24 injured

Unconfirmed damage has been reported in the agricultural sector: flooded rice paddies, fallen banana trees, destroyed manioc plantations and other vital crops. Some stretches of national roads have been flooded by swollen rivers, making communication difficult and in some cases suspended. Several public buildings, including schools, have been reported damaged to varying degrees.

CYCLONE "FANELE"

Fanele was a type 4 cyclone, descending on the south-east of Madagascar at 4 am on 21 January 2009. Moving through the district of Morondava, some 50 km south of the town of Morondava, the system brought in winds travelling at 150 km/h, reaching in gusts the speed of 210 km/h. Later that day, "Eric" moved south-east, crossing the regions of Menabe, Atsimo-Andrefana, Haute Matsiatra, and Ihorombe, exiting Madagascar on 22 January at 2 am through the regions of Anosy and Atsimo Atsinanana. The arrival of the cyclone was preceded by heavy rainfall threatening the inhabitants of the town of Morondava and the district of Miandrivazo with the prospect of flooding.

Preliminary reports issued by BNGRC's mobile teams dispatched to the impact areas point to over 9,000 persons displaced in the district of Miandrivazo due to flooding. A number of public buildings in the town of Morondava have suffered varying degrees of damage, including the municipal water system which has been reported down. Homeless persons are being assembled in temporary shelter areas under the supervision of the Malagasy Red Cross.

As rapid assessment missions are being dispatched to the impacted areas, more accurate picture of the extent of damage will become available in the next days.

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Brutal winds as Hamish reaches Cat 5

Cyclone Hamish has now intensified into a Category 5 system, creating winds in excess of 280 kilometres an hour, off the north-east coast of Queensland.

Residents and tourists are preparing to ride out the effects of the cyclone as it moves along the coast.

The outer edge of the massive storm, already 40km/h faster than Cyclone Larry which smashed Innisfail in 2006, will lash islands in the Whitsundays in the next few hours.

It continues moving south-east off the coast, and some islands in its path have been evacuated.

A Category 5 is rated as extremely dangerous and can cause widespread destruction.

Director of the Bureau of Meteorology, Jim Davidson, says the cyclone will bring winds up to 180 kilometres an hour to islands in the Whitsundays.

"If it comes a little closer the damage will be much worse," he said.

Mr Davidson says it will stay at least 200 kilometres off the coast.

"And even if a Category 5 cyclone is that far out, it shouldn't be a serious problem," he said.

Emergency warning signals have been sounded in communities from Bowen to Mackay, but the biggest concern is for islands in the Whitsundays.

Gold Coast man Dan Riddle is on his honeymoon on Hamilton Island, and he and his wife have stocked up on food and water.

"We don't really know what to expect but I guess a heap of rain and bit of wind," he said.

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"It's running into an upper jet stream that wants to rip the top off the cyclone and push it out to the east," he said.

"But the high in the Tasman with the easterly flow is trying to push the lower half of the cyclone back towards the coast.

"Now that's going to weaken the cyclone and it depends on how much it's weakened by that interaction as to how much is left of the system."

Authorities say the next 24 hours will be the crucial period to see if Hamish turns back closer to the coast.

Mike Shapland from Emergency Management Queensland says it remains unclear what the storm will do.

Mr Shapland says it appears the threat has eased for now but it remains unclear what the storm will do.

"I think we've got a fairly clear space for the next 24 to 48 hours if the bureaus track and estimations come right," he said.

"But really what happens after Wednesday is the question in our minds."

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De eerste verwachtingen voor het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen zien er gunstig uit. In de Atlantische Oceaan en de Caribische Zee worden dit jaar minder tropische orkanen verwacht dan de afgelopen jaren.


Ook in de westelijke Stille Oceaan, dus voor de westkust van Mexico en de VS, worden dit jaar minder tropische cyclonen verwacht. Het Atlantisch orkaanseizoen duurt van juni tot december. De verwachting van de orkaanactiviteit is afkomstig van het Europees Weercentrum ECMWF en geldt voor de eerste helft van het seizoen.

Het geringere aantal tropische stormen en hurricanes hangt onder meer - en op een ingewikkelde manier - samen met La Niña. In een La Niña-jaar - met tijdens het hurricane-seizoen relatief koud zeewater langs de evenaar - ontstaan doorgaans meer hurricanes. Dat houdt verband met de wind op grote hoogte die dan minder sterk is, waardoor de enorme wolkencomplexen zich tot hoog in de atmosfeer kunnen ontwikkelen.

Het ziet er echter naar uit dat de La Niña van de afgelopen periode komende zomer verleden tijd is. Volgens de verwachtingen blijven de temperaturen langs de Afrikaanse westkust, waar de stormen ontstaan, echter voorlopig nog laag. Door dat naijleffect kunnen tropische stormen en hurricanes zich komende zomer moeilijker vormen.

Dat betekent niet dat er hier helemaal geen orkanen zullen langskomen. Normaal telt een seizoen tegenwoordig zo'n 12 tot 16 tropische stormen waarvan er 5 à 10 het orkaanstadium bereiken. Bovendien zeggen de prognoses niets over de schade die ze kunnen aanrichten. Op deze termijn is niet aan te geven hoeveel orkanen land bereiken en hoe zwaar ze worden.

Vorig jaar was bijzonder. In totaal ontstonden er 8 orkanen, waarvan er liefst 6 het vasteland van de Verenigde Staten bereikten, terwijl er 5 uitgroeiden tot een zware orkaan van de hoogste categorieën. Recordjaar is 2005 toen het Atlantisch gebied 14 hurricanes zag passeren.



Bron: KNMI (vwk)