Olie doorbreekt $90 per vat

quote:

In July 2006, the world's oil rigs pumped out crude at a rate of nearly 85.5 million bbl. a day. They haven't come close since, even as prices have risen from $75 to $98 per bbl. Which raises a question of potentially epochal significance: Is it all downhill from here?

quote:

It's not as if nobody predicted this. The true believers in what's called peak oil--a motley crew of survivalists, despisers of capitalism, a few billionaire investors and a lot of perfectly respectable geologists--have long cited the middle to end of this decade as a likely turning point.

quote:

In most official scenarios, production will soon begin rising again, peaking at more than 110 million bbl. a day around 2030.[...]
That's alarming enough in itself. Even the optimists think we have less than three decades to go?

quote:

In "peak lite," as some call it, the big issues are not so much geological as political, technical, financial and even human-resource-related (the world apparently suffers from a dearth of qualified petroleum engineers).

quote:

It's not that the world is running out of oil. There are massive reserves available in Canadian tar sands, Colorado shale, Venezuelan heavy oil and other unconventional deposits. The problem is that most of this oil is hard to extract and even harder to refine, and it isn't likely to account for a significant share of global production anytime soon.

quote:

Among the peakists, war and economic breakdown are favorite themes. They figure that cheap oil is the essential fuel of modern capitalism, which will founder without it. A more hopeful take is that innovation is the essential fuel of modern capitalism and that high oil prices will drive rapid advances in conservation and alternative energy. Either way, the beginning of the end of the oil era may be upon us, well ahead of schedule.

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 14:02 schreef waht het volgende:

Ik val de laatste tijd vrij vaak in herhaling merk ik. Ik wacht nu wel weer tot posten als olie $100 kost.

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 17:23 schreef gtotep het volgende:
En het gaat meestal anders dan algemeen wordt gedacht
ik denk dat de 3e wo over goed zoet water zal gaan
het energie probleem wordt in snel tempo opgelost door allerlei technische ontwikkelingen
maar ja das mijn mening

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 23:06 schreef DiGuru het volgende:
Kernfusie is geen optie.

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 23:17 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

[..]

Ach geef het nog 30 jaar en we weten niet beter.

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 23:17 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

[..]

Ach geef het nog 30 jaar en we weten niet beter.

quote:

Op vrijdag 23 november 2007 00:27 schreef gronk het volgende:

[..]

Over 30 jaar weten we misschien hoe we kernfusiereactoren moeten bouwen. Dan staan ze er nog niet...

quote:

Op vrijdag 23 november 2007 00:32 schreef Papierversnipperaar het volgende:

[..]

Die kunnen dan rap gebouwd worden hoor, bij een olieprijs van $350 / barrel.

quote:

Op vrijdag 23 november 2007 00:42 schreef gronk het volgende:

[..]

Wie betaalt dat? Of ga je gratis electriciteit weggeven als je een reactor afneemt?

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 14:03 schreef gronk het volgende:

[..]

Peak-oil-aanhangers hebben daar sowieso heel erg last van. [afbeelding]

quote:

Op donderdag 22 november 2007 23:06 schreef DiGuru het volgende:
Kernfusie is geen optie. Kernsplitsing wel, behalve als we er allemaal massaal op overstappen (winbaar uranium is ook een probleem) en ieder land dan de fabrieken heeft om atoombommen te maken.

quote:

R. James Woolsey, who has been a nuclear arms negotiator and the nation's top spy, is now lobbying Americans to take steps to reduce energy consumption and avert terrorist and environmental threats.

''We should not just try to import less oil,'' the former CIA director under former President Clinton told a Miami audience Sunday. ''We should destroy oil as a strategic commodity'' that allows oil exporting nations to hold monopoly power.

quote:

Op woensdag 28 november 2007 02:01 schreef Bolkesteijn het volgende:
Ik begreep van de week dat slechts 10 % van de olie via de vrij markt wordt verhandeld, 90 % van de olie wordt onderhands verkocht. Van die transacties is de prijs vaak niet bekend, dus bij mij ontstaat een beetje de vraag waarom men zo op de prijs van die 10 % is gefocust? Zo baseerd onze overheid de prijs die zij voor het gas dat wordt verkocht via de NAM op de prijs van deze 10 %, een vreemde keus dus eigenlijk.

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 december 2007 00:06 schreef DiGuru het volgende:

[..]

De "spot market" is maar ongeveer 3%, maar het is de hoogste prijs. Al die mannen zeggen dus: op de spot market had ik er xxx voor kunnen krijgen!

Natuurlijk is dat onzin, want als ze allemaal hun olie daar zouden verkopen, zou de prijs enorm kelderen. En dan zouden ze een andere markt die wel een hele hoge prijs heeft uitkiezen als officiele handelsprijs.

quote:

Op dinsdag 4 december 2007 09:00 schreef Basp1 het volgende:

[..]

Dus eigenlijk worden wij als consumente met zijn allen door een vrije markt die naar gelang van de ontvangers gekozen wordt dus niet zo vrij is als ons wordt voorgespiegeld gefopt.

quote:

An international team that includes University of Calgary scientists has shown how crude oil in oil deposits around the world -- including in Alberta's oil sands -- are naturally broken down by microbes in the reservoir.

quote:

The oil sands industry would no longer have to use costly and polluting thermal, or heat-based, processes (such as injecting steam into reservoirs) to loosen the tar-like bitumen so it flows into wells and can be pumped to the surface.

quote:

WIkipedia
Bitumen is een viskeuse vloeistof die van nature voorkomt in ruwe aardolie. Na fractionele distillatie kan het gescheiden worden van andere bestanddelen van de aardolie zoals nafta, benzine of diesel en blijft het als zwaarste bestanddeel achter.

quote:

Using a combination of microbiological studies, laboratory experiments and oilfield case studies, the team demonstrated the anaerobic degradation of hydrocarbons to produce methane. The findings offer the potential of 'feeding' the microbes and rapidly accelerating the breaking down of the oil into methane.

quote:

"Instead of 10 million years, we want to do it 10 years," Larter says. "We think it's possible. We can do it in the laboratory. The question is: can we do it in a reservoir?"

quote:

Doing so would revolutionize the heavy oil/oil sands industry, which now manages to recover only about 17 per cent of a resource that consists of six trillion barrels worldwide.

quote:

The petroleum industry already has expressed interest in trying to accelerate biodegradation in a reservoir, Larter says. "It is likely there will be field tests by 2009."

quote:

A prominent energy economist warned Tuesday that global oil markets are at risk of being under-supplied as national oil companies gain greater control of the world's petroleum supplies.

quote:

To narrow the gap, major oil producers, especially OPEC members, must ramp up production, Birol said, while major oil consumers, including the U.S., must make policy changes to ease demand.

quote:

While those changes are possible, there are "no major reasons to be optimistic," Birol said at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. Birol said he is worried that oil-producing nations will allow parochial political interests to get in the way of global economic interests.

quote:

China and India, with their rapidly advancing economies, now drive global energy demand, and China will surpass the U.S. as the world's top energy consumer in 2010. "We are on the eve of a new world energy order," Birol said.

quote:

Prof Paul Crutzen calculated the global warming effects of the fertiliser needed to grow energy crops like biodiesel and bioethanol were much worse than has been estimated.

He believes a larger proportion than thought of the nitrogen in fertilisers is converted into nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, New Scientist magazine reported.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested that 1-2% of nitrogen added to fields becomes nitrous oxide.

quote:

At present about 12 million hectares - or around 1% of the world's fields - are devoted to energy crops.

quote:

Bush: “No. I believe oil prices are going up because the demand for oil outstrips the supply for oil. Oil is going up because developing countries still use a lot of oil. Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling. That’s why the price of oil is going up.” --November 7, 2007

quote:

“Every geopolitical event causes a spike in the price [in oil], but these spikes only happen because the underlying market is itself tight. For the medium term, the era of cheap energy is behind us.”

quote:

“Oil and gas production fell at all of the largest publicly traded oil companies in the third quarter, as aging oil fields, declining access and soaring costs for drilling services took their toll on output.

“I don’t think we’re going to see the supply go over 100 million barrels a day. Where is it all going to come from?” --November 8, 2007

quote:

Op zondag 16 december 2007 23:42 schreef waht het volgende:

In 2008 komt Peak Oil naar U toe!

quote:

But the real news of 2007 is not the disappointment of the US political system, but rather the growing signs of a social, political, economic, and environmental nightmare. The real news is that even while the mainstream politicians and mainstream media have turned a corner in their treatment of global warming, the bigger questions before us as a society are not even part of the discourse. As the subprime lending shell game has worked its way into prominence as an economic problem, big banks and big media continue to dress it up as a manageable one, contained to those who foolishly signed loans they could not handle. Unfortunately, however, the entire US economy is suspect, because it is built upon a number of assumptions that are starting to buckle. In short, the US economy, and much of the world economy, is a house of cards. And 2007 has been the year that the first cards began to fall.

In his 2005 book, The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler outlined the connections between peak oil, the housing bubble, debt-fueled consumer spending, and the financial gimmicks underlying much of the economy. He takes you on a ride through the commoditization of lending, the S & L crisis, the abstraction of money, the creation of derivatives, leveraged debt, hedging, on up to the period of slashed interest rates starting at the end of the nineties, leading to ever-easier credit, and in turn to the real estate bubble, which he describes as "perhaps the last act in the sorry drama of the hallucinated economy."

quote:

Gilbert went on to explain how reserves growth – the tendency for reserves estimates to rise during the lifetime of an oilfield – results largely from distortions created by the conservative reporting rules of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This he says has fostered a “myth” that reserves always grow, whereas proprietary data from major oil companies suggests they are just as likely to be revised downwards.

quote:

because less and less of the world’s oil is controlled by companies that adhere to the SEC rules. In 1972, 93% of global oil production came from the International Oil Companies (IOCs - publicly traded firms like BP, Shell and Total) from fields where SEC rules were followed. But now that the National Oil Companies in OPEC and other producer nations control so much of the world’s oil, that figure has fallen to about 20%. What’s more, the IOCs are getting better at their initial reserve estimates, which limits the scope for reserves growth later on. “People assume that this [reserves growth] will continue to happen in the future”, says Gilbert, “and it won’t”.

quote:

Gilbert is highly critical of a forecast from the United States Geological Survey that reserves growth could add 612 billion barrels to world reserves by 2025. The real figure he says is more likely to be just 200 billion barrels by 2020. That could mean potential annual production gains of some 2 million barrels per day, but since the decline from existing production is much greater, reserves growth can neither significantly defer peak oil nor prevent global production falling thereafter.

quote:

Life after peak oil, by Gregory Clark, Sacramento Bee: Oil prices have receded from their recent flirtation with $100 a barrel, but ... increased demand, high prices and the prospect of an eventual peak in oil production has caught Americans paralyzed between ... the fear that rampant consumption of oil and coal is irreversibly warming the Earth and the dread that without cheap oil our affluent lifestyles will evaporate. ...

Study of the long economic history of the world suggests two things, however. Cheap fossil fuels actually explain little of how we got rich since the Industrial Revolution. And after an initial period of painful adaptation, we can live happily, opulently and indeed more healthily, in a world of permanent $100-a-barrel oil or even $500-a-barrel oil. ...


Many people think mistakenly that modern prosperity was founded on this fossil energy revolution, and that when the oil and coal is gone, it is back to the Stone Age. If we had no fossil energy, then we would be forced to rely on an essentially unlimited amount of solar power, available at five times current energy costs. With energy five times as expensive ... we would take a substantial hit to incomes. Our living standard would decline by about 11 percent. But we would still be fantastically rich compared to the pre-industrial world. ... Our income would still be above the current living standards in Canada, Sweden or England. Oh, the suffering humanity! At current rates of economic growth we would gain back the income losses from having to convert to solar power in less than six years. ...

The ability to sustain such high energy prices at little economic cost depends on the assumption that we can cut back from using the equivalent of six gallons of gas per person per day to 1.5 gallons. Is that really possible? The answer is that we know already it is.

The economy would withstand enormous increases in energy costs with modest damage because energy is even now so extravagantly cheap that most of it is squandered in uses of little value. Recently, I drove my 13-year-old son 230 miles round-trip ... to play a 70-minute soccer game. Had every gallon of gas cost [considerably more], I am sure his team could have found opposition closer to home.

The median-sized U.S. home is now nearly 2,400 square feet, for an average family size of 2.6 people... Much of that heated, air-conditioned and lighted square footage rarely gets used. Cities ... that were developed in the world of cheap gas have sprawled across the landscape so that the only way to get to work or to shops is by car...

Some countries in Europe, such as Denmark, which have by public policy made energy much more expensive, already use only the equivalent of about three gallons of gas per person. I have been to Copenhagen, and believe me the Danes are not suffering a lot from those the daily three gallons of gas they gave up.

But can we get down to 1.5 gallons without huge pain? We can see even now communities where for reasons of land scarcity people have been forced to adopt a lifestyle that uses much less energy – places like Manhattan, London or Singapore. ... Housing space per person is much smaller, people walk or take public transit to work and to shop, and energy usage is correspondingly much lower, despite the inhabitants being very rich.

So the future after peak oil will involve living in such dense urban settings where destinations are walkable or bikeable, just as in pre-industrial cities (the city of London in 1801 had 100,000 inhabitants in one square mile). Homes will be much smaller... Nights will be darker. We will not have retail outlets lit up like the glare of the midday sun in Death Valley.

Such a lifestyle is not only possible it will be much healthier. We are not biologically adapted to the suburban lifestyle... – lots of cheap calories delivered right to your seat in the SUV that shuttles you from your sofa at home, to your chair at work, to the gym where you try and work on your weight problem. ...

So life after peak oil should hold no terror for us – unless, of course, you have invested in a lot of suburban real estate.

quote:

Op zondag 23 december 2007 17:17 schreef gronk het volgende:
Voor de peak-oil huilies:

http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/585637.html
[..]

Eat that

quote:

So the future after peak oil will involve living in such dense urban settings where destinations are walkable or bikeable, just as in pre-industrial cities (the city of London in 1801 had 100,000 inhabitants in one square mile). Homes will be much smaller.